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Offline TimS  
#1 Posted : 05 July 2022 06:59:20(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,969
Location: Brockley

The heatwave to end all heatwaves? Or a few nice days then a Northerly?

Whatever, it feels like it needs its own thread. 

As of this morning we have multiple runs hinting at temperatures at or above 40C by mid month. 

Today looks like the coolest day countrywide for 2 weeks at least. 

Edited by user 29 July 2022 11:43:41(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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Offline Gusty  
#2 Posted : 05 July 2022 08:55:46(UTC)
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Location: Folkestone

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#3 Posted : 05 July 2022 09:15:38(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Location: South Cambridgeshire

As we now have a bespoke thread for this - Just thought I'd mention that on About Anglia last night they alluded to the fact that some forecast models had gone for 40C and 41C just recently.

They quickly added that they didn't think these would verify and that 30C was the highest we'd see.

However they went on to say that they're keeping a watch on things.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline TimS  
#4 Posted : 05 July 2022 09:34:55(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,969
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

As we now have a bespoke thread for this - Just thought I'd mention that on About Anglia last night they alluded to the fact that some forecast models had gone for 40C and 41C just recently.

They quickly added that they didn't think these would verify and that 30C was the highest we'd see.

However they went on to say that they're keeping a watch on things.

 

A 30C peak is every bit as outlierish in the other direction as a 40C peak. That's cool ramping.

This morning's GFS the op run, which peaks at just above 20C 850s, was if not a cool outlier then certainly at the cool end of the set. I think I counted fully 2 ensemble members that don't touch 15C 850s at some point in the run, and 15C means 32C.

Edited by user 05 July 2022 09:51:11(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#5 Posted : 05 July 2022 09:50:24(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Hot ensembles from the ECM.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#6 Posted : 05 July 2022 09:52:36(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Man
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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

GEFS similarly hot!

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#7 Posted : 05 July 2022 09:56:50(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Recent heat records in dozens of countries.  Will the next fortnight be our turn.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline TimS  
#8 Posted : 05 July 2022 09:57:46(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,969
Location: Brockley

Worth including French heatwave details in here given that's where we're importing the air from. And because it could be catastrophic. Here's last night's GFS 18z. Max temperature in the SW of 48C and widely 45-46C including, remarkably, on the Normandy coast.

 

You'd need to head to the Cote D'Azur to find some cool respite. 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 05 July 2022 09:59:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Chunky Pea  
#9 Posted : 05 July 2022 10:01:37(UTC)
Chunky Pea

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Joined: 28/10/2013(UTC)
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Ireland
Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl

10 day ECM anomalies upping by the day now. From a US site so deviations are expressed as Fahrenheit:

 

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Ireland 2022 Monthly Average/D.F. 81-10.

May: 12.3c / +1.4c

June: 13.7c / +0.4c

Year (up to July 2nd) 9.3c / +0.9c

Online DEW  
#10 Posted : 05 July 2022 10:34:48(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

A certain Brian Gaze being quoted widely in the papers 

“ Then during next week the mercury will continue to rise said Brian Gaze, a forecaster at The Weather Outlook. At the moment long-range computer models are suggesting an increased likelihood of very warm conditions during the last third of July," he said, reported the Independent.

“Temperatures in the UK reached 32.7C earlier this month and typically the hottest weather of the summer comes in July or August. In recent years periods of extreme heat have become more common in the UK. I wouldn’t be surprised if temperatures climbed to 35C. To put a little context on that, the hottest day in the entire decade of the 1980s was 34.4C.”

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-hotter-barcelona-27398826 

Corals 5/4 on  for July  being the hottest month ever for the UK 

William Hill 25/1 for the UK record to be broken (that was yesterday's price and looks a good bet, but may have changed)

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Online westv  
#11 Posted : 05 July 2022 10:39:56(UTC)
westv

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 18,530
Location: Kingston upon Hull

Hopefully it will just be mild.
At least it will be mild!
Online Saint Snow  
#12 Posted : 05 July 2022 10:49:26(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Having just experienced +100f for the first time in years (Saturday in Valletta tipped the mercury at 39c/102f), I can say that it holds less attraction for me these days.

 

(although the following day seemed more oppressive at 34c - because the humidity had jumped)

Martin

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Online Brian Gaze  
#13 Posted : 05 July 2022 10:56:37(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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GFS 06Z goes for a short and intense burst of heat. (Static image)

Brian Gaze

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Offline Sevendust  
#14 Posted : 05 July 2022 10:57:45(UTC)
Sevendust

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,665
Location: Alton, Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Having just experienced +100f for the first time in years (Saturday in Valletta tipped the mercury at 39c/102f), I can say that it holds less attraction for me these days.

(although the following day seemed more oppressive at 34c - because the humidity had jumped)

I want to see it but it would be a struggle for me and my breathing!

I also want to see it to because this type of event gives credence to the "warming" theory which many are sceptical of.

I started 13 days off today so ideal timing.

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

Offline TimS  
#15 Posted : 05 July 2022 12:06:20(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,969
Location: Brockley

One thing now seems certain: there is a big dome of exceptional heat which will build over the next few days in North Africa and Iberia, and it will break out into Europe. The uncertainty is how far North and East it travels. Does it reach across the Med into the Alpine countries and Balkans, or North into France and the low countries (and Britain)?

Here's Spain and Portugal this weekend in the 06z GFS, with a 50C in Southern Portugal:

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Rob K  
#16 Posted : 05 July 2022 12:13:13(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,021
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

A certain Brian Gaze being quoted widely in the papers 

“ Then during next week the mercury will continue to rise said Brian Gaze, a forecaster at The Weather Outlook. At the moment long-range computer models are suggesting an increased likelihood of very warm conditions during the last third of July," he said, reported the Independent.

“Temperatures in the UK reached 32.7C earlier this month and typically the hottest weather of the summer comes in July or August. In recent years periods of extreme heat have become more common in the UK. I wouldn’t be surprised if temperatures climbed to 35C. To put a little context on that, the hottest day in the entire decade of the 1980s was 34.4C.”

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-hotter-barcelona-27398826 

Corals 5/4 on  for July  being the hottest month ever for the UK 

William Hill 25/1 for the UK record to be broken (that was yesterday's price and looks a good bet, but may have changed)

Earlier this month? Are they recycling an old quote?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Offline Gusty  
#17 Posted : 05 July 2022 12:59:12(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,431
Man
Location: Folkestone

https://weather.meteostar.com/forecast?location=EGMD

584 dam, 27.3 (850Hpa), 33.6c (925Hpa) !

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Offline Rob K  
#18 Posted : 05 July 2022 15:14:28(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,021
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

https://weather.meteostar.com/forecast?location=EGMD

584 dam, 27.3 (850Hpa), 33.6c (925Hpa) !

Really? (Link doesn't seem to show forecast for me).

 

The UK record 925mb temperature is apparently 29.2C on 25 July 2019: https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1155933406359724033

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Offline Gusty  
#19 Posted : 05 July 2022 15:18:18(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,431
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post

 

Really? (Link doesn't seem to show forecast for me).

 

The UK record 925mb temperature is apparently 29.2C on 25 July 2019: https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1155933406359724033

You will need to zoom in. Heat peak is 18.00hrs on 15/7.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Online Quantum  
#20 Posted : 05 July 2022 15:36:38(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 26,607

OK so to help out and explain what I've been doing with ensembles I introduce to you the Adiabaitc lapse equation!

Its quite simple.

Take your temperature at 850hpa and multiply by 1.053 and you will get what the surface temp should be in ideal conditions! Again for these extreme hot plumes this is going to be a good approximation. Again you will need a low humidity and cloudless skies for this to be reached.

 

The equation is in kelvins so for 25C at 850 you have to do (25+273.15)*1.053  - 273.15 which gets you 40C

 

Applying this equation for a few T850s we get:

T850 22C -> 37.6C

T850 23C -> 38.7C

T850 24C -> 39.7C

T850 25C -> 40.8C

T850 26C -> 41.9C

T850 27C -> 42.9C

T850 28C -> 43.9C

T850 29C -> 45.0C

T850 30C -> 46.0C

T850 31C -> 47.1C

T850 32C -> 48.1C

T850 33C -> 49.2C

T850 34C -> 50.3C

 

You can perhaps see why I got so excited about that 18Z run last night showing 28C on the south coast. So for the magic 40 we do really need T850s above 25C (allowing for a bit of lee way with clouds and moisture) .

 

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)

Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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