Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 26,606
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On wetterzentrale if you click the extended button on GEFS forecasts it goes up to 840 hours! I just wish I had known about this when that nuts run came through a few days ago that I suspected would have shown 42C https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=99&time=804&lid=P07&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref |
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8) Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling. |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,294
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,530
Location: Kingston upon Hull
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Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model? |
At least it will be mild! |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,294
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Originally Posted by: westv  Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model? I think the mean and standard deviation data sets are good TBH. Much better than CFS. However, I don't bother with the individual perturbations because they don't add value IMO at that range. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 9,300   Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Extended warmth all the way to August. Bank it! |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,020
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: westv Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model? You haven't seen the CFS 9-month charts on Meteociel then?  The beast from the east arrives mid December, you heard it here first. Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too.  SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl "But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC)
Posts: 909
Location: London E4
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Originally Posted by: Rob K You haven't seen the CFS 9-month charts on Meteociel then? The beast from the east arrives mid December, you heard it here first. Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too. Cancel all Valentine’s Day plans. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
Chingford London E4 147ft |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2013(UTC) Posts: 18,456  Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl
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Never seen this but interesting. I doubt it could be any worse than the EC weeklies/monthlies that really are a pile of rubbish, and the GFS does often pick up on longish range >10 <15 day) trends sooner than the EC to be honest. |
Ireland 2022 Monthly Average/D.F. 81-10. May: 12.3c / +1.4c June: 13.7c / +0.4c
Year (up to July 2nd) 9.3c / +0.9c
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2019(UTC)
Posts: 345
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Does anyone know why the cfs 9month charts on Meteociel are not working. They have been stuck on 27th and 28th of June for some time now.
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,294
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Originally Posted by: DPower Does anyone know why the cfs 9month charts on Meteociel are not working. They have been stuck on 27th and 28th of June for some time now. The TWO ones are updating: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx NCEP recently changed the directory structure for CFS. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 19,674 Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too. I need it at 4440 hours before I can get excited SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,914  Location: Cambridge
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Originally Posted by: SJV I need it at 4440 hours before I can get excited X model agreement at T3000 is key!
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