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Online Quantum  
#1 Posted : 04 July 2022 18:05:29(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 26,606

On wetterzentrale if you click the extended button on GEFS forecasts it goes up to 840 hours!

I just wish I had known about this when that nuts run came through a few days ago that I suspected would have shown 42C

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=99&time=804&lid=P07&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)

Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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Online Brian Gaze  
#2 Posted : 04 July 2022 18:09:47(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,294

It was introduced last year and only applies to the 00z update.

I call it the GEFS 35. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online westv  
#3 Posted : 04 July 2022 18:11:09(UTC)
westv

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,530
Location: Kingston upon Hull

Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model?

At least it will be mild!
Online Brian Gaze  
#4 Posted : 04 July 2022 18:13:37(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,294

Originally Posted by: westv Go to Quoted Post

Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model?

I think the mean and standard deviation data sets are good TBH. Much better than CFS. However, I don't bother with the individual perturbations because they don't add value IMO at that range.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#5 Posted : 04 July 2022 18:20:26(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,300
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

It was introduced last year and only applies to the 00z update.

I call it the GEFS 35. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

 

 

Extended warmth all the way to August.  Bank it!

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Online Rob K  
#6 Posted : 04 July 2022 20:36:35(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,020
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: westv Go to Quoted Post

Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model?

You haven't seen the CFS 9-month charts on Meteociel then? 

The beast from the east arrives mid December, you heard it here first.

 

Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too. 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Offline Downpour  
#7 Posted : 05 July 2022 05:30:33(UTC)
Downpour

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC)
Posts: 909
Location: London E4

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post

 

You haven't seen the CFS 9-month charts on Meteociel then? 

The beast from the east arrives mid December, you heard it here first.

 

Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too. 

 

Cancel all Valentine’s Day plans. 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Offline Chunky Pea  
#8 Posted : 05 July 2022 12:25:56(UTC)
Chunky Pea

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2013(UTC)
Posts: 18,456
Man
Ireland
Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl

Never seen this but interesting. I doubt it could be any worse than the EC weeklies/monthlies that really are a pile of rubbish, and the GFS does often pick up on longish range >10 <15 day) trends sooner than the EC to be honest. 

Ireland 2022 Monthly Average/D.F. 81-10.

May: 12.3c / +1.4c

June: 13.7c / +0.4c

Year (up to July 2nd) 9.3c / +0.9c

Offline DPower  
#9 Posted : 10 July 2022 17:00:37(UTC)
DPower

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2019(UTC)
Posts: 345

Does anyone know why the cfs 9month charts on Meteociel are not working. They have been stuck on 27th and 28th of June for some time now.

Online Brian Gaze  
#10 Posted : 10 July 2022 17:08:02(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,294

Originally Posted by: DPower Go to Quoted Post

Does anyone know why the cfs 9month charts on Meteociel are not working. They have been stuck on 27th and 28th of June for some time now.

The TWO ones are updating:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx

NCEP recently changed the directory structure for CFS.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline SJV  
#11 Posted : 10 July 2022 17:34:35(UTC)
SJV

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 19,674
Man
Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post

Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too. 

I need it at 4440 hours before I can get excited 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

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Online Zubzero  
#12 Posted : 10 July 2022 18:28:00(UTC)
Zubzero

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,914
Man
Antarctica
Location: Cambridge

Originally Posted by: SJV Go to Quoted Post

 

I need it at 4440 hours before I can get excited 

X model agreement  at T3000 is key!

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