Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 July 2022 18:05:29

On wetterzentrale if you click the extended button on GEFS forecasts it goes up to 840 hours!


I just wish I had known about this when that nuts run came through a few days ago that I suspected would have shown 42C


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=99&time=804&lid=P07&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
04 July 2022 18:09:47

It was introduced last year and only applies to the 00z update.


I call it the GEFS 35. 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
westv
04 July 2022 18:11:09

Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model?


At least it will be mild!
Brian Gaze
04 July 2022 18:13:37

Originally Posted by: westv 


Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model?



I think the mean and standard deviation data sets are good TBH. Much better than CFS. However, I don't bother with the individual perturbations because they don't add value IMO at that range.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
04 July 2022 18:20:26

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It was introduced last year and only applies to the 00z update.


I call it the GEFS 35. 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx


 



 


Extended warmth all the way to August.  Bank it!


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
04 July 2022 20:36:35

Originally Posted by: westv 


Interesting but what's the point of a +35 day model?



You haven't seen the CFS 9-month charts on Meteociel then? 


The beast from the east arrives mid December, you heard it here first.



 


Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too. 



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
05 July 2022 05:30:33

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


You haven't seen the CFS 9-month charts on Meteociel then? 


The beast from the east arrives mid December, you heard it here first.



 


Fantastic battleground snow event at 5550 hours too. 




 


Cancel all Valentine’s Day plans. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Chunky Pea
05 July 2022 12:25:56

Never seen this but interesting. I doubt it could be any worse than the EC weeklies/monthlies that really are a pile of rubbish, and the GFS does often pick up on longish range >10 <15 day) trends sooner than the EC to be honest. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DPower
10 July 2022 17:00:37

Does anyone know why the cfs 9month charts on Meteociel are not working. They have been stuck on 27th and 28th of June for some time now.

Brian Gaze
10 July 2022 17:08:02

Originally Posted by: DPower 


Does anyone know why the cfs 9month charts on Meteociel are not working. They have been stuck on 27th and 28th of June for some time now.



The TWO ones are updating:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx


NCEP recently changed the directory structure for CFS.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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