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Offline Lionel Hutz  
#21 Posted : 28 June 2022 19:06:40(UTC)
Lionel Hutz

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Man
Ireland

According to one of the Italian papers today, five Italian cities managed record June temperatures. Florence was the highest at 40.2, followed by Viterbo at 39.8 and Rome at 39. 

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL

"The hardest thing of all is to see what is really there"

J.A. Baker, The Peregrine

Offline TimS  
#22 Posted : 29 June 2022 08:41:35(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
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Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz Go to Quoted Post

According to one of the Italian papers today, five Italian cities managed record June temperatures. Florence was the highest at 40.2, followed by Viterbo at 39.8 and Rome at 39. 

Worth noting that these records have been broken (and a string of them yesterday including Rome equalling its all time high) with an upper air pattern that ended up much less intense than was modelled when I started the thread. The models downgraded the heat by 2-3C at least as pressure built over Eastern Europe.

This was a downgraded heatwave, that still managed to break records. 

Look out for Spain in about 10 days’ time.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline TimS  
#23 Posted : 30 June 2022 13:04:01(UTC)
TimS

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I've renamed this thread so we can continue with the next one, which is looking particularly juicy for Spain and Portugal. 

Andalusia, Estremadura and Alentejo are going to absolutely bake from mid next week onwards, possibly for as long as a week. Bear in mind places like Seville, Cordoba, Caceres, Beja and so on are the hottest places in European summer anyway. Look at these 850hPa anomalies:

 

And look at these max temperatures:

Folks, that's a 48C. And if you look on the slighter higher res meteologix for the same run there's a little 49C shown in Alentejo.

Current GFS shows 44C+ maxes in the region running from next Thursday to the following Tuesday, including 5 days in a row with somewhere at 46C or more.

I have never seen temperatures like this modelled on a European map before even for one day. They also show minima of 29C deep, deep inland in Estremadura next Saturday night.

At least it won't be muggy. Here are the 2m dewpoints for that hot Saturday:

You heard it here first.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#24 Posted : 30 June 2022 14:35:22(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,817
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

I've renamed this thread so we can continue with the next one, which is looking particularly juicy for Spain and Portugal. 

Andalusia, Estremadura and Alentejo are going to absolutely bake from mid next week onwards, possibly for as long as a week. Bear in mind places like Seville, Cordoba, Caceres, Beja and so on are the hottest places in European summer anyway. Look at these 850hPa anomalies:

 

And look at these max temperatures:

Folks, that's a 48C. And if you look on the slighter higher res meteologix for the same run there's a little 49C shown in Alentejo.

Current GFS shows 44C+ maxes in the region running from next Thursday to the following Tuesday, including 5 days in a row with somewhere at 46C or more.

I have never seen temperatures like this modelled on a European map before even for one day. They also show minima of 29C deep, deep inland in Estremadura next Saturday night.

At least it won't be muggy. Here are the 2m dewpoints for that hot Saturday:

You heard it here first.

 

If this intense heat takes a hold it will spread to other places and we could tap into this at some point. This is well worth keeping a close eye on.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline Gusty  
#25 Posted : 30 June 2022 15:34:45(UTC)
Gusty

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Location: Folkestone

Sevilla 850's...staggering brutal.

Builds from the 5th, peaks around the 9th.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=31543&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

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Offline TimS  
#26 Posted : 30 June 2022 16:53:31(UTC)
TimS

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Posts: 10,979
Location: Brockley

As if on cue the 12z GFS downgrades the peak to a mere 43C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline TimS  
#27 Posted : 01 July 2022 09:33:46(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
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Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
As if on cue the 12z GFS downgrades the peak to a mere 43C.

But then later runs quickly upgrade again. Notably the absolute highest temperatures are forecast for Southern Portugal rather than Spain.

Latest max temps across Iberia from next Wed onwards per 00z GFS:

Wed: 41C

Thurs: 43C

Fri: 46C

Sat: 47C (48C on the high res)

Sun: 46C

Mon: 45C

Tues: 44C

Wed: 41C

 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online Perthite1  
#28 Posted : 01 July 2022 10:34:22(UTC)
Perthite1

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Joined: 26/05/2014(UTC)
Posts: 788
Australia
Location: Perth

After 14 days of over 40c here last Summer, hopefully this gets downgraded for Spain and Portugal. It’s not just the heat, but in combination with such low dew points the fire danger is catastrophic. The wind speeds are not expected to be too strong which is a good thing. 

Offline TimS  
#29 Posted : 01 July 2022 11:18:39(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,979
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Perthite1 Go to Quoted Post

After 14 days of over 40c here last Summer, hopefully this gets downgraded for Spain and Portugal. It’s not just the heat, but in combination with such low dew points the fire danger is catastrophic. The wind speeds are not expected to be too strong which is a good thing. 

It's a good point considering the location of the heat. Much of Andalucia especially around the usual hotspots like Seville and Cordoba there isn't much to burn as it's all deforested / semi-desert except in some of the mountains, but in Southern Portugal there are vast Eucalyptus plantations and some pretty large areas of forest and bush.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline TimS  
#30 Posted : 02 July 2022 11:02:42(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,979
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

 

But then later runs quickly upgrade again. Notably the absolute highest temperatures are forecast for Southern Portugal rather than Spain.

Latest max temps across Iberia from next Wed onwards per 00z GFS:

Wed: 41C

Thurs: 43C

Fri: 46C

Sat: 47C (48C on the high res)

Sun: 46C

Mon: 45C

Tues: 44C

Wed: 41C

 

Latest - starts a little later and goes on longer:

Thurs: 43

Fri: 44

Sat: 45

Sun: 45

Mon: 47

Tues: 46

Wed: 47

Thurs: 47

Fri: 46

And it goes on. Core of the heat definitely in Portugal.

 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline TimS  
#31 Posted : 04 July 2022 06:26:04(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,979
Location: Brockley

First 50C on a model run in Europe:

Northern Estremadura. A few 49s around too.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
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