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High temperature watch - mid June 2022 onwards
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,275  Location: Surrey Heath
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Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather. It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?). What is not clear is:- - how quick the heat moves away on Saturday
- Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)?
- will it go bang?
- can the heat return from the south east next week?
Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs? Mods - feel free to change as required 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 9,334  Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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This morning so far Arpege 36c, ICON 32c, GFS 31c , GEM 34c for Friday Edited by user 15 June 2022 04:59:11(UTC)
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Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,275 Location: Surrey Heath
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman  This morning so far Arpege 36c, ICON 32c, GFS 31c , GEM 34c for Friday Wow, quite a large range for something just a couple of days away.
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,348
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 9,334 Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Originally Posted by: John p Wow, quite a large range for something just a couple of days away. Yep, the models are struggling with this one. June record is just about still on though. |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,348
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I don't think we'll get a record, but I was wrong in 2020. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 2,367
Location: Essex
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Saturday morning could have some crazy high temperatures early on
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 09/05/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,658 Location: Blackford in south Edinburgh
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Just hit our warmest so far this year, 20 C with lots of blue sky now |
Jerry Brathay Hall, Clappersgate, Ambleside, Lake District.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,275 Location: Surrey Heath
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27c here so far - warmer than I was expecting today. Feels lovely!
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,837
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: John p Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather. It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?). What is not clear is:- - how quick the heat moves away on Saturday
- Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)?
- will it go bang?
- can the heat return from the south east next week?
Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs? Mods - feel free to change as required Good thread - Thanks and well done.  |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 11,015
Location: Brockley
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Saturday morning could have some crazy high temperatures early on Friday night into Saturday is looking extremely warm. Minima for London area are 20C on Arpege, 22C GFS, 19C ICON. The record for June looks to be 22.7C at Ventnor Park in 1976. That one looks safe. Still, a pretty stuffy night. Interesting to see if we get a "tropical night" anywhere. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,066
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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GFS seems to be showing much higher temperatures for Saturday than for Friday (for London), which goes against all other model output I have seen. Is there an error in this output or am i missing something?
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0
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Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl "But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 4,367 Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 535
Location: Leeds
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Looking at the latest GFS run for Friday it has 31c in London and then has the heat pushing South much quicker on Saturday with 30c only on the far South coast. |
NW Leeds - 150m amsl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,857
Location: Bournemouth
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Originally Posted by: John p Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather. It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?). What is not clear is:- - how quick the heat moves away on Saturday - The far SE could hold on to the heat into sunday
- Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)? - No
- will it go bang? - Almost certainly especially the midlands northward as the two air masses meet
- can the heat return from the south east next week? - Highly unlikley the rest of the month is looking below average
Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs? Mods - feel free to change as required
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 09/05/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,658 Location: Blackford in south Edinburgh
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21 C here today and in Edinburgh too. Both achieving the highest temperature of the year so far |
Jerry Brathay Hall, Clappersgate, Ambleside, Lake District.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 8,690 Location: The NW of Edinburgh
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Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 21 C here today and in Edinburgh too. Both achieving the highest temperature of the year so far Yes, and your old local station at Swanston in the south of Edinburgh currently has the honour of sharing that title for Edinburgh's highest temperature with Edinburgh Gogarbank with 20.8°C being the highest temperature so far at both of those stations. Edinbugh Airport has had a temperature of 21°C, but that temperature is only recorded and then reported to the nearest 1°C which raises the possibility that the temperature at the airport might not necessarily have been as high as it was at those two other stations. |
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 9,334 Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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28c in St James's park today making it the hottest day of the year. |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 9,334 Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Originally Posted by: Polar Low Arpege also has 30c tmrw and 30c on the south coast Saturday |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 11,015
Location: Brockley
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UHI really showing itself this evening: 20.6 and 20.8C at our nearest PWS in SE London at 10.10pm, 12.5C at my vineyard and 12-14C in various other rural spots in Kent and Sussex. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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High temperature watch - mid June 2022 onwards
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