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Offline John p  
#1 Posted : 14 June 2022 22:48:58(UTC)
John p

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,275
Man
Location: Surrey Heath

Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather.

It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?).

What is not clear is:-

  • how quick the heat moves away on Saturday
  • Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)?
  • will it go bang?
  • can the heat return from the south east next week?

Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs?

Mods - feel free to change as required 

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#2 Posted : 15 June 2022 04:55:32(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

This morning so far Arpege 36c, ICON 32c, GFS 31c , GEM 34c for Friday 

 

Edited by user 15 June 2022 04:59:11(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline John p  
#3 Posted : 15 June 2022 06:43:07(UTC)
John p

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Location: Surrey Heath

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

This morning so far Arpege 36c, ICON 32c, GFS 31c , GEM 34c for Friday 

 

Wow, quite a large range for something just a couple of days away. 

Offline Brian Gaze  
#4 Posted : 15 June 2022 06:52:37(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#5 Posted : 15 June 2022 07:43:17(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: John p Go to Quoted Post

 

Wow, quite a large range for something just a couple of days away. 

Yep, the models are struggling with this one. June record is just about still on though.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Brian Gaze  
#6 Posted : 15 June 2022 07:46:26(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

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Posts: 61,348

I don't think we'll get a record, but I was wrong in 2020.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Online ballamar  
#7 Posted : 15 June 2022 08:40:52(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

Saturday morning could have some crazy high temperatures early on
Offline Crepuscular Ray  
#8 Posted : 15 June 2022 12:07:15(UTC)
Crepuscular Ray

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Location: Blackford in south Edinburgh

Just hit our warmest so far this year, 20 C with lots of blue sky now
Jerry

Brathay Hall, Clappersgate, Ambleside, Lake District.

Offline John p  
#9 Posted : 15 June 2022 13:16:01(UTC)
John p

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Location: Surrey Heath

27c here so far - warmer than I was expecting today. Feels lovely!
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#10 Posted : 15 June 2022 13:36:08(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,837
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: John p Go to Quoted Post

Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather.

It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?).

What is not clear is:-

  • how quick the heat moves away on Saturday
  • Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)?
  • will it go bang?
  • can the heat return from the south east next week?

Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs?

Mods - feel free to change as required 

Good thread - Thanks and well done.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline TimS  
#11 Posted : 15 June 2022 13:40:54(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 11,015
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Saturday morning could have some crazy high temperatures early on

Friday night into Saturday is looking extremely warm. Minima for London area are 20C on Arpege, 22C GFS, 19C ICON.

The record for June looks to be 22.7C at Ventnor Park in 1976. That one looks safe. Still, a pretty stuffy night. Interesting to see if we get a "tropical night" anywhere.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Rob K  
#12 Posted : 15 June 2022 15:37:04(UTC)
Rob K

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Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,066
Location: Northeast Hampshire

GFS seems to be showing much higher temperatures for Saturday than for Friday (for London), which goes against all other model output I have seen. Is there an error in this output or am i missing something?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

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Offline Polar Low  
#13 Posted : 15 June 2022 16:16:16(UTC)
Polar Low

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Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
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Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

12z ARPEGE sticks with 36c Tremendous heat France

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=52&mode=41&map=300

Offline Taylor1740  
#14 Posted : 15 June 2022 16:19:42(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 535
Location: Leeds

Looking at the latest GFS run for Friday it has 31c in London and then has the heat pushing South much quicker on Saturday with 30c only on the far South coast.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline springsunshine  
#15 Posted : 15 June 2022 16:29:23(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,857
Location: Bournemouth

Originally Posted by: John p Go to Quoted Post

Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather.

It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?).

What is not clear is:-

  • how quick the heat moves away on Saturday - The far SE could hold on to the heat into sunday
  • Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)? - No
  • will it go bang? - Almost certainly especially the midlands northward as the two air masses meet
  • can the heat return from the south east next week? - Highly unlikley the rest of the month is looking below average

Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs?

Mods - feel free to change as required 

Offline Crepuscular Ray  
#16 Posted : 15 June 2022 16:32:11(UTC)
Crepuscular Ray

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 09/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,658
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Blackford in south Edinburgh

21 C here today and in Edinburgh too. Both achieving the highest temperature of the year so far
Jerry

Brathay Hall, Clappersgate, Ambleside, Lake District.

Offline johncs2016  
#17 Posted : 15 June 2022 17:05:39(UTC)
johncs2016

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Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 8,690
Man
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Location: The NW of Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray Go to Quoted Post
21 C here today and in Edinburgh too. Both achieving the highest temperature of the year so far

Yes, and your old local station at Swanston in the south of Edinburgh currently has the honour of sharing that title for Edinburgh's highest temperature with Edinburgh Gogarbank with 20.8°C being the highest temperature so far at both of those stations.

Edinbugh Airport has had a temperature of 21°C, but that temperature is only recorded and then reported to the nearest 1°C which raises the possibility that the temperature at the airport might not necessarily have been as high as it was at those two other stations.

 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#18 Posted : 15 June 2022 18:04:09(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,334
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

28c in St James's park today making it the hottest day of the year. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#19 Posted : 15 June 2022 18:06:39(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,334
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Polar Low Go to Quoted Post

12z ARPEGE sticks with 36c Tremendous heat France

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=52&mode=41&map=300

Arpege also has 30c tmrw and 30c on the south coast Saturday 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline TimS  
#20 Posted : 15 June 2022 21:10:45(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 11,015
Location: Brockley

UHI really showing itself this evening: 20.6 and 20.8C at our nearest PWS in SE London at 10.10pm, 12.5C at my vineyard and 12-14C in various other rural spots in Kent and Sussex.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
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