On a normal news day, the Hurricane in the Caribbean would be a big story

 

Also, as others have noted, the rainfall east of #Fiona’s core is nothing short of catastrophic. Almost the ENTIRE island is covered by precipitation reflectivity returns of 40dbz or higher which has already caused some destructive flash flooding with even more rain to come… https://t.co/QK1h79mRwW pic.twitter.com/bePgjFb2VM

— KeviShader (@KeviShader) September 18, 2022

40 dbz is roughly 12mm/phr 

45 dbz roughly 24mm/phr 

So it's not the intensity of the rainfall so to speak but rather it's duration, and slow moving T.C are nothing unusual. Orographic rainfall will also be very significant as there are some very high mountains.

Bahamas are directly in Fiona's projected track by which time (Fri) it will be a major hurricane with sustained winds above 110 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150115.shtml?cone#contents 

If you look hard enough you can find a news item on the BBC on Nanmadol in Japan buried under reports of the Queens' funeral

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62952942 including video forecast

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NHC has Fiona still(!) as a hurricane in the mouth of the St Lawrence River on Saturday. Now is a good time to sell those investments in Canadian timber companies - there'll be a big blowdown in an area not used to it if this comes off

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In addition to Fiona, TS 8 has formed in mid-Atlantic but probably not going anywhere, and there's also something more interesting approaching the Windward Islands with some prospect of intensifying in the Caribbean.

Nanmadol over Japan is now downgraded to extra-tropical storm; there were 2 fatalities, flooding and power outages but it doesn't seem to have been as damaging as feared.

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TS 8 is now officially Gaston; the disturbance approaching the Windward Islands continues to ramp up; and there are two more disturbances of interest leaving Africa. The forecasters who predicted an above-average season may yet be right.

EDIT - GFS & ECM yesterday predicted Fiona to have central pressure <940mb on reaching Canada, a record for this area at any time of year. Previous records have all been held by Atlantic storms.

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TS 8 is now officially Gaston; the disturbance approaching the Windward Islands continues to ramp up; and there are two more disturbances of interest leaving Africa. The forecasters who predicted an above-average season may yet be right.

EDIT - GFS & ECM yesterday predicted Fiona to have central pressure <940mb on reaching Canada, a record for this area at any time of year. Previous records have all been held by Atlantic storms.

The forecast busy hurricane season may finally be materialising.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Another likely TS has materialised with little warning near the Windward Isles and a couple of tropical waves are developing in the far Eastern Atlantic.

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The forecast busy hurricane season may finally be materialising.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Another likely TS has materialised with little warning near the Windward Isles and a couple of tropical waves are developing in the far Eastern Atlantic.

Seem there lack of them as this month had been very poor and no heatwave which often a hurricane kick useless HP that always want to stay west of UK for no reason to push east, which none happened this month which wasted valuable warm day chances while still early enough. 

Invest 98L subject of recent Recon mission and awaiting data. The model mean takes 98L into the Caribbean and on to the Gulf in 6 days but much to be resolved.

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As scrutiny of Invest 98L (soon to be a tropical depression) increases, this link gives some useful information on model performance and how NHC derive a concensus. The improvement over the last 20yrs is quite impressive:

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/06/the-most-reliable-hurricane-models-based-on-their-2021-performance/?fbclid=IwAR266oaucvnPGJux9vG2884DctC50W1NiFe7df6aJBBR-nbrgkgWUagkODQ 

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98L is now TD 9 in the Caribbean  forecast to be heading for W Cuba as a hurricane on Tue and as a major hurricane for the W coast of Florida on Wed, near Tampa. Likely to become Hermine - edit - correction - TD10 made it to Hermine first, so will be Ian instead

TD10 formed off the coast of Africa but following an odd path N-wards before declining to TS away from land; doesn't look as if it will get a name to itself. - edit - correction - it's pepped up sooner than expected and is now TS Hermine

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Fiona getting noticed by the British news media

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63011195

The extreme nature of the storm as it hits Canada is a bit technical for the BBC; central pressure is forecast to be 930mb, a record some 10mb lower than the existing Canadian record.

Also an error in the report - the Caribbean storm is now officially Ian, not Hermine (ee preceding post)

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Fiona getting noticed by the British news media

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63011195

The extreme nature of the storm as it hits Canada is a bit technical for the BBC; central pressure is forecast to be 930mb, a record some 10mb lower than the existing Canadian record.

Also an error in the report - the Caribbean storm is now officially Ian, not Hermine (ee preceding post)

Caught a few out - Hermine was used by the weak TS off the African coast just before 9 reached TS strength.

Never pre-guess the weather :) 

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Here’s the most recent update from Environment Canada

https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html 

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Fiona getting noticed by the British news media

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63011195

The extreme nature of the storm as it hits Canada is a bit technical for the BBC; central pressure is forecast to be 930mb, a record some 10mb lower than the existing Canadian record.

Also an error in the report - the Caribbean storm is now officially Ian, not Hermine (ee preceding post)

Finally, a weather system with my name.   Of course I hope it doesn't end up being too destructive on the other side of the pond but wonder if it'll arrive here at our shores as a remnant feature, it is coming up to that time of year for it.

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Fiona in Canada https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63011195

Ian now seems nailed on as major hurricane as it approaches Florida, but uncertainties as to track, perhaps now further west so as to strike the Panhandle

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Worth a mention.

Hurricane/Storm in Canada and  further south.

see - storm

 

copied from Unusual World Weather to keep all references together

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The BBC website has a chart that shows Fiona as still a tropical storm as it enter the Labrador Sea, off the NE coast of Labrador/Newfoundland.

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The BBC website has a chart that shows Fiona as still a tropical storm as it enter the Labrador Sea, off the NE coast of Labrador/Newfoundland.

I think that is a BBC issue as the NHC data (as illustrated on the Wikipedia page) has Fiona as extra-tropical before it reaches Canada. It certainly wasn’t tropical when it reached the Labrador Sea.

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I think that is a BBC issue as the NHC data (as illustrated on the Wikipedia page) has Fiona as extra-tropical before it reaches Canada. It certainly wasn’t tropical when it reached the Labrador Sea.

True. It is always worth the revision - a system can not be tropical over seas <27C SST. Ex-tropical, with ‘tropical characteristics’, yes. But a tropical storm - no.

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A suddenly dire situation has developed in the Northwest Pacific, where what was a tropical storm just a day earlier has explosively intensified into Super Typhoon Noru less than 18 hours before landfall. Noru is now predicted to strike the Philippines at category 5 intensity on Sunday night local time.

From 'Eye on the Storm' https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/fiona-sets-atlantic-canada-reeling-ian-forms-in-caribbean/ 

 

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