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Offline johncs2016  
#1 Posted : 10 May 2022 18:48:47(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 8,690
Man
United Kingdom
Location: The NW of Edinburgh

As just about all of you know who have been following this forum, this spring has been exceptionally dry so far and regardless of what happens between now and the end of the month, that is how this spring is now likely to end up.

Here in Edinburgh, we had just 23.6 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank during March and a total of just 24.4 mm of rain at that same station during April. February was a very wet month here but apart from that, every single month during this year so far has been exceptionally dry with a total of just 21.6 mm of rain being recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank during January.

We have had a little bit of rain over recent days but even with that, a total of just 8.8 mm of rain has been recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this month so far which is well below what we should be getting at this stage of the month, given that we are now almost a third of the way through this month.

Here in Edinburgh, this spring was preceded by a drier than average winter with February being our only wetter than average month. Before then, last autumn with the exception of last October was also drier than average. In addition that, last Spring and summer were both drier than average here overall and so, you have to go all the way back to the winter of 2020-21 to find our last wetter than average season.

All of that adds ups in the end and with the country being so dry in recent times, this is bound to raise concerns about possible water shortages and hose pipe bans in at least one of the UK if this trend goes on during the summer as well. On that note, I have stumbled across this report which highlights the concerns that SEPA have that there could be ongoing water shortages here in Scotland during this summer if we don't start to get some more significant rainfall soon.

According the latest model output, the outlook is a bit more unsettled across Scotland overall than what it is across the rest of the UK but even here, there are hints that we could get another big build of high pressure by this time next week, so the general outlook is actually looking all that unsettled even here for very long.

Indeed, I have just watched Brian's latest video on the official TWO YouTube channel and according to the 10 day charts on that video, the totals for the east of both the east of Scotland and the east of England in particular still look very low after that period. Of course, it may well be that we get the rain that we need and everything is alright on that regard in the end. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that this will be the case in other parts of the UK. Because of that, I have decided to post this in order to raise aware of this situation to to find out whether or not these concerns are shared in other parts of the UK.

As for the cause of all of this dry weather, the Scottish YouTuber with the name of Mark Vogan has been talking about that in a few of his recent videos and now that Gavin P. has just returned to that scene after his recent cancer surgery, he has also started to pick up on that in his videos as well.

Mark Vogan seemed to be a little bit puzzled at first because he has been pointing out that we have had a warmer than average Atlantic Ocean for quite a while now, and you would have thought that this would promoted more in the way in rainfall with those warmer SSTs warming the air around there in such a way that it would then be able to hold more moisture as a result.

However, Mark Vogan has also been pointing out in his videos that we are going into an unprecedented third year of a La Nina event in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, and has come up with a possible theory that this might be what is putting that massive dampener on our rainfall totals at the moment.

On that note, I would be interested to see what your thoughts on that were.

 

Edited by user 10 May 2022 18:51:51(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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Offline Saint Snow  
#2 Posted : 10 May 2022 21:51:58(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Both United Utilities and Yorkshire Water are reporting key reservoirs to be at around 84-88% capacity.

That's a bit below average for the time of year (both Cumbria and North Wales levels are currently rising)

Both South West and Severn Trent have their reservoirs in the high-80's%

Soil moisture levels are not much below average.

So any drought fears are going to be localised (well, regionalised) 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline picturesareme  
#3 Posted : 10 May 2022 22:46:35(UTC)
picturesareme

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,357
Location: costa solent

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Both United Utilities and Yorkshire Water are reporting key reservoirs to be at around 84-88% capacity.

That's a bit below average for the time of year (both Cumbria and North Wales levels are currently rising)

Both South West and Severn Trent have their reservoirs in the high-80's%

Soil moisture levels are not much below average.

So any drought fears are going to be localised (well, regionalised) 

And it would seem from the annual threads of drought that if it doesn't piss it down 3/4 days a week in the edinburgh area or for that matter anywhere else in the north during the spring we will be in for a summer of water restrictions!

Offline DEW  
#4 Posted : 10 May 2022 22:53:32(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

The water table in the Chilgrove House well near Chichester (Chalk in the downlands, which has implications for much of the SE) is a little below average but appears to be holding up despite not reaching its usual maximum this winter 

https://www2.bgs.ac.uk/groundwater/datainfo/levels/sites/ChilgroveHouse.html 

 

On a related point, Natural England have invoked statutory powers to put a halt to all building in large areas of the SE unless that development is nutrient-neutral in terms of water abstracted  and waste water discharged

https://deframedia.blog.gov.uk/2022/05/03/coverage-on-nutrient-neutrality/

This is recent and in addition to a ban on developments which are not water-neutral due to over-abstraction from aquifers

https://www.chichester.gov.uk/media/36219/Position-statement-on-Water-Neutrality-Sept-21-2021/pdf

 

 

 

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Offline GezM  
#5 Posted : 11 May 2022 11:11:30(UTC)
GezM

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Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
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Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

I fear this thread might be just what the weather gods were waiting for. I've noticed that the models are looking increasing unsettled and no longer is it just in the form of weakening fronts from the Atlantic as they come into high pressure areas. Increasingly there appears to be the risk of heavy rain coming up from Europe in the second half of May. In fact, we might get a taste of that on Sunday in the far south east. 

I suspect that come early June, concerns about water shortages will be waning for much of the UK. 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline NMA  
#6 Posted : 11 May 2022 11:24:41(UTC)
NMA

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Posts: 3,930
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Location: South Dorset

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

I fear this thread might be just what the weather gods were waiting for. I've noticed that the models are looking increasing unsettled and no longer is it just in the form of weakening fronts from the Atlantic as they come into high pressure areas. Increasingly there appears to be the risk of heavy rain coming up from Europe in the second half of May. In fact, we might get a taste of that on Sunday in the far south east. 

I suspect that come early June, concerns about water shortages will be waning for much of the UK. 

Who knows? I'm beginning to see puddles outside as I type where they've been as rare as hens teeth this spring.

If it does become properly wet, no doubt there'll be a plague of slugs and snails which have been rare in my garden this year. And with parts of the more hyperbolic expressian media predicting up to five killer heatwaves in Britain this summer I wouldn't be surprised if these predictions fall flat.

 

Offline Saint Snow  
#7 Posted : 11 May 2022 11:26:13(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,449
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

I fear this thread might be just what the weather gods were waiting for. I've noticed that the models are looking increasing unsettled and no longer is it just in the form of weakening fronts from the Atlantic as they come into high pressure areas. Increasingly there appears to be the risk of heavy rain coming up from Europe in the second half of May. In fact, we might get a taste of that on Sunday in the far south east. 

I suspect that come early June, concerns about water shortages will be waning for much of the UK. 

 

That and us arranging a party for the 21st

Not looking great per the MO. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#8 Posted : 11 May 2022 14:08:21(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,837
Location: South Cambridgeshire

A dangerous thread - I bet in the next 2 weeks it starts raining and you'll wish it had never started.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline JOHN NI  
#9 Posted : 11 May 2022 14:35:09(UTC)
JOHN NI

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,356

Overall as you say the first 4.5 months of the year have been dry - pretty much everywhere. (February excepted)

I would expect the second half of the year to make up for it. The longer the mostly dry 'patterns' persist - the more dramatic the return to normal will be between July and December. Its always the way.

John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Offline Sevendust  
#10 Posted : 11 May 2022 15:22:46(UTC)
Sevendust

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,675
Location: Alton, Hampshire

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI Go to Quoted Post
Overall as you say the first 4.5 months of the year have been dry - pretty much everywhere. (February excepted)
I would expect the second half of the year to make up for it. The longer the mostly dry 'patterns' persist - the more dramatic the return to normal will be between July and December. Its always the way.

Now you've started this thread I got the first useful rain for ages! Although I am away, we may get some thundery stuff at the weekend. Still a largely dry picture though and at this time of year the restoration of ground water is very limited 

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

Offline richardabdn  
#11 Posted : 13 May 2022 16:22:18(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,265
Location: Aberdeen

Certainly not a dry Spring here. 55.6mm in March, 68.4mm in April. Only 9mm so far in May but it's been a dreadful month with light rain almost every day and stupefying amounts of cloud 

Moreover it's looking wet next week so a good chance of May ending up wet and thus giving the first spring since 1985 in which all three months are wetter than average 

It's just unreal. All the climate consists of now is 6 months of November followed by 6 months of October.

The past 2 years have been the most worthless and depressing I've had to go through and the almost relentless vile weather has made it a hundred times worse. Ridiculously wet since summer 2020 and it just gets worse and worse with January the only dry month since last June.

A prolonged dry, sunny run is needed urgently over the summer but more likely a 1998- type horror is ensuing whereby every single month from April to September is duller than average with copious amounts of rain.

It really does feel that there couldn't be a worse, more unfulfilling climate anywhere on Earth.

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2022 - The Latest Year of Horror Seasonless 21st Century Tripe

19th - 25th January 2022: 41.6 hours sunshine

19th - 25th July 2022: 24.6 hours sunshine

Offline johncs2016  
#12 Posted : 17 June 2022 07:40:38(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 8,690
Man
United Kingdom
Location: The NW of Edinburgh

I have decided to resurrect this old thread because nothing has changed here since I started it and because SEPA have just released the latest water scarcity report which can be viewed here.

For a long period during the spring, we had a lot of northern blocking during April in particular which resulted in large parts of Scotland getting more reasonable amounts of rain, but with Scotland being a lot drier. That pattern has since flipped around to one which has seen the south of England in particular, see the driest weather with the wettest weather being in the NW of the UK.

Even with this pattern though, very little of that rainfall is actually getting through to the east of Scotland which is continuing to experience very low rainfall totals as a result. Because of that and according to that SEPA report, our rivers are continuing to dry up and our groundwater levels are also dropping. That is a situation which cannot carry on indefinitely and unless we start to see some significant rainfall very soon, my initial fears about possible water shortages and hosepipe bans in this part of the world at least, will be realised despite what everyone else has said on this thread to the contrary.

I have seen many responses on this thread even from the mods which suggest that this was a dangerous thread to start, but nothing has happened here since I first started it to suggest that this is actually the case. Other comments have suggested that this thread was just what the weather gods wanted but if that was really the case, our rainfall totals would have increased quite substantially from that point in time.

That hasn't happened though as during this month so far, a total of just 16.6 mm of rain was recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank as 8am this morning along with just 12.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. Since we are now more than halfway through the month, this is turning into yet another exceptionally dry month here.

Furthermore, I can't see anything in the latest model output (either short term, medium term or longer term) to suggest that this situation is likely to change anytime soon and the GFS in particular, continues to show the next 10 days at least, as being significantly drier than average here.

The rest of you can say what you like about these water shortages and possible water restrictions not being likely to happen and I have to laugh at the manner in which southerners often laugh off the possibilities of such a scenario ever happening here in Scotland because in doing so, they forget that it wasn't all that long ago that fresh water had to be imported into the Orkney Islands due to an ongoing lack of rainfall up there.

This should show you that the types of water shortages which I'm predicting for here during this summer are just as possible here in Scotland as they are elsewhere, and should not be laughed off in any way because it wouldn't exactly be funny if that happened in your own neck of the woods. Unless I see something in the model output or in terms of our actual weather which tells me otherwise, I therefore remain convinced that water shortages and/or hosepipe bans will happen here during this summer, regardless of what the rest of you say on this subject.

 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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