This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during May, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for May should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.      

Historic CET summary for May

1981-2010 (30 years) 11.66C

1991-2020 (30 years) 11.90C

2001-2020 (20 years) 12.02C

Last May was fairly chilly with a CET of just 10.1C. Prior to that 4 of the previous 5 years saw a CET above 12C with the highest being 13.3C in 2018.   

Here is a chart of the May CET for all years since 1961  

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output     

GEFS - the extended run from 0z on 30 April shows the GEFS mean above average every day from the 4th. That is very unusual and suggests a good chance of a fairly warm month.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw= 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (for de Bilt) shows a rather cool first week with something potentially warmer after that. Lots of scatter by the middle of the month but one or two runs do reach 30C surface temperature. The control run stays average / cool though.   

https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook    

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-mjj-v2.pdf

No one month summary this time. Really strange that Met O sometimes has a one month and 3 month summary in the contingency planners outlook and sometimes just has a 3 month summary. The 3 month outlook suggests only a 10% chance of cool weather. Rainfall shows little deviation from average in terms of probability. Very little narrative commentary this month.

Edited by moderator 30 June 2022 14:44:11(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Met Office Hadley     11.4c     Anomaly    2.0c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                  10.81c   Anomaly    -0.60c

Netweather               11.47c   Anomaly    0.18c

Peasedown St John   10.2c   Anomaly   -1.4c.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine

It will be interesting to see the predictions for this month. I have gone for a warm/hot May at over 13c

Ive a feeling this month and June are going to be the best months of the summer season.

I've gone for 'warmish', but am already thinking it's going to be too low (and I'm sure I'll be near the bottom of the prediction pile)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

 

 

I've gone for 'warmish', but am already thinking it's going to be too low (and I'm sure I'll be near the bottom of the prediction pile)

 

Me too and I already have the same worry as you. Even chilly Stonyhurst is looking quite warm with mild nights - which is often the crucial factor. Of course, model output and forecasts can change quite quickly so still very early days

Edited by user 04 May 2022 16:42:05(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

The outlook can change quickly of course but atm it looks very warm.  Wonder if anyone went for 14c+?

Mey Office Hadley       11.7c      Anomaly     2.0c provisional to 4th

Metcheck                     10.77c   Anomaly      -0.64c

Netweather                  11.51c   Anomaly      0.21c

Peasedown St john     10.74c    Anomaly     -0.86c.

The mega June which starts hot and stays hot, perhaps with a few thundery interludes and muggy nights to inflate the minima, is surely coming at some point....

Met Office Hadley        12.1c     Anomaly      2.2c provisional to 6th

Metcheck                     11.62c   Anomaly      0.22c

Netweather                  12.13c   Anomaly      0.84c

Peasedown St John      11.95c     Anomaly     0.35c.        

Oct 2001 was a really lacklustre record breaker aswell being mostly dull and wet with some flooding in places. I remember being surprised to hear on the news that it had beaten the CET record (this competition not being a thing then )... It was mainly the minima that pushed it past the much more pleasant month in 1995 .

Would be good to see a sunny and dry one take its place

Originally Posted by: Bolty

 

After December 2015 and the ease of which we are recording above average CETs, there's a few months that I think are bound to smash their records at some point.

March is one... the record is 9.2, and considering we had a December of 9.7, I think a double figure March is well within the realm of possibilty.

May is another. The record is 15.1 (I think), yet recently we seem to stall in the low 13s. It's only a matter of time before that is smashed.

October as well...

I agree- though not necessarily with the same months. With a 9.7C December,November should surely be able to manage 2 degrees up on that- the feeble 10.1 in 1994 is only a tad up on the December record. But 15 in May and 18 in June will be very hard nuts to crack, I reckon. A July 20+ is more likely.

That said, only 1994's November was warmer than Dec15, reflecting how totally exceptional that month was.