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Online DEW  
#161 Posted : 24 May 2022 11:01:50(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Much better GFS 6z.  High pressure building in right over the UK. I find the GFS 6z does tend to play it's own tune though so best wait until the 12s before opening the champagne. 

 

It'll cover the Jubilee weekend, just about, but goes off after that

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Offline Saint Snow  
#162 Posted : 24 May 2022 11:04:03(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Much better GFS 6z.  High pressure building in right over the UK. I find the GFS 6z does tend to play it's own tune though so best wait until the 12s before opening the champagne. 

 

 

Think the 0z was better, certainly in the latter stages.

The trend over the last 4/5 GFS runs, though, has been decent.

Same can't be said of the ECM, which sets up blocking to the NW, blocking to the SE, and the UK being slap in the middle of Atlantic low highway.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Taylor1740  
#163 Posted : 24 May 2022 18:29:29(UTC)
Taylor1740

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Heard on the radio this morning that apparently the forecasters have guaranteed that all 4 days of next weekend are going to be absolutely perfect!

Not sure which models they have based that on, though having said that it does look like there has been an improvement to the outlook today.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline briggsy6  
#164 Posted : 24 May 2022 20:41:49(UTC)
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A bold prediction indeed given the vagaries of the UK climate.

Location: Uxbridge
Online UncleAlbert  
#165 Posted : 24 May 2022 21:13:53(UTC)
UncleAlbert

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GEFS today seems to be gravitating

towards the high pulling towards the northwest hence a massive cluster of mediocre 850s. But a stubborn cluster of 5 members give something quite a bit warmer suggesting HP close by?

Offline moomin75  
#166 Posted : 25 May 2022 07:00:36(UTC)
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All the models have now reverted to northern blocking to varying extents and looking pretty cool and relatively unsettled for the Jubilee weekend as it stands.

Still a fair way off, but the trend is going backwards at the moment.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Online DEW  
#167 Posted : 25 May 2022 07:10:39(UTC)
DEW

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BBC WFTWA last night presented a stark difference for a week's time between GFS (northern blocking, dry, NE-ly winds affecting N Sea coasts) and ECM (large depression to the SW, S-ly winds, a lot of rain often heavy). Both models seem to have stepped back from their more extreme positions this morning but there is still a difference.

WX summary (based on GFS) much as it was yesterday: the clear picture of week 1 with a line mid-France - Alps - Ukraine dividing cool to the N and war/hot to the S gets mixed up in week 2. The warmth advances on two fronts, one to Ireland and England (but not Scotland) and the other much warmer all the way up to Finland [not quite as far in today's chart]. In between, Germany remains cold. Rain mainly over the continent; week 1 Balkans - Poland - White Sea and week 2 Germany - Baltic - W Russia with some in N Spain and Alps. Britain looking quite dry, except a bit in the NW at first.[this morning a bit further E week 1 and further SE Week2; Britain not quite as dry and the rain never really leaves NW Scotland]

GFS Op: current LP N of Britain with W/NW winds moves to Baltic with HP 1030mb N Ireland Sat 28th. The HP drifts N-wards to leave Britain in a col between LPs Denmark and Portugal (the former is closer, so expect NE-lies); then a new HP area arising in the W and moving to cover all Britain Sun 5th. It lasts for a few days, enough for the Jubilee weekend, before withdrawing to the SW and an area of LP near Iceland brings in NW-lies.

GEFS: although mild/warm in S at firstt, mean temps generally drop to cool Mon 30th, back to norm Fri 3rd and staying there, with the usual outliers (control is a cold one). Not much rain at first, a little more probable later on esp in NW

ECM: similar to GFS until Mon 30th; but then instead of a col, the two LPs over Denmark and Portugal join forces to give general low pressure; and the LP to the SW becomes dominant 1005mb Cornwall Thu 2nd with S/SE winds (not as large and deep as shown by BBC). It moves N to Scotland Sat 4th with broad trough all the way down to the Med, HP staying in mid-Atlantic

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Online DEW  
#168 Posted : 25 May 2022 07:19:04(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post
All the models have now reverted to northern blocking to varying extents and looking pretty cool and relatively unsettled for the Jubilee weekend as it stands.
Still a fair way off, but the trend is going backwards at the moment.

My view of the charts is more optimistic than this. Northern blocking in both the big models at first, sure, but for the Jubilee weekend GFS suggests sunny, dry, hot in the sun and cool out of it; ECM fairly warm in the S, cooler in N, but watch out for showers.

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Online Ally Pally Snowman  
#169 Posted : 25 May 2022 07:37:12(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post
All the models have now reverted to northern blocking to varying extents and looking pretty cool and relatively unsettled for the Jubilee weekend as it stands.
Still a fair way off, but the trend is going backwards at the moment.

Yes yesterday's GFS 6z was indeed leading us up the garden path as it often does.  Outlook is poor.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline GezM  
#170 Posted : 25 May 2022 08:14:26(UTC)
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West appears to be best over this weekend and into early next week with some warm sunshine. Eastern areas looking cool with the onshore breeze - highs of 12C now forecast for Norwich on Sunday!

ECM goes downhill in a big way just in time for the Jubilee celebrations offering typically wet royal weather. GFS looks considerably better - not especially warm but I'm sure it will feel pleasant enough in any sunshine. After that, GEFS is distinctly average at best with high pressure trending north-west allowing coolish and unsettled weather to dominate.

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Online Rob K  
#171 Posted : 25 May 2022 08:56:54(UTC)
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Generally after today's rain it looks pretty decent for the next week to 10 days to me - never especially warm but with a good amount of sunshine around.

Actually the lack of warmth is starting to be noticeable. It looks like 20-21C is about the best we can hope for in the foreseeable future. If my memory is correct, in most years recently by the beginning of June we have had a few 25C+ days. AFAIK we have only reached 25C once so far this year (17 May hit 27.5C) and I can't see that being beaten for a good while.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Offline NMA  
#172 Posted : 25 May 2022 09:07:16(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post

Generally after today's rain it looks pretty decent for the next week to 10 days to me - never especially warm but with a good amount of sunshine around.

Actually the lack of warmth is starting to be noticeable. It looks like 20-21C is about the best we can hope for in the foreseeable future. If my memory is correct, in most years recently by the beginning of June we have had a few 25C+ days. AFAIK we have only reached 25C once so far this year (17 May hit 27.5C) and I can't see that being beaten for a good while.

I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

 

Online Ally Pally Snowman  
#173 Posted : 25 May 2022 09:14:57(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Originally Posted by: NMA Go to Quoted Post

 

I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

No real heat yet, but here at least consistently warm 20c most days which is unusual for May. The CET will likely be in the top 10 warmest ever.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Saint Snow  
#174 Posted : 25 May 2022 09:54:21(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

 

No real heat yet, but here at least consistently warm 20c most days which is unusual for May. The CET will likely be in the top 10 warmest ever.

 

 

The temp through May has been remarkably stable, with daily maxes sticking within a narrow band, and no cool nights. It's reflected in the CET, which is 1.7c above the 30-year average despite having no real warmth to speak of. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#175 Posted : 25 May 2022 13:12:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: NMA Go to Quoted Post

 

I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

I hope this isn't the story for the whole summer. We've had two so called hot spells now kicked out to the ether. The next few days on Look East last night showed a maximum of just 12C for Sunday.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Online Ally Pally Snowman  
#176 Posted : 25 May 2022 17:31:47(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Truly awful output summer definitely on hold for at least 10 days.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Jiries  
#177 Posted : 25 May 2022 18:36:33(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: NMA Go to Quoted Post

 

I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

 

That what I been going about here becoming Icelandic climate set-up that normally does in Iceland in summer when we get HP often from the south now opposite Iceland get good UK summer types and like Rob K say about lack of noticeable warmth, it tiring to try to keep my house warm to avoid heating which last turn on 5th May so it stay around 20-21c indoors.   Any models still continue to be useless and if they keep taking the heat away from us that mean they are to blame for it, today temps are just 1 C off from 16C on 1st Jan on the shortest daylight time.  We now got 3 weeks left before drawing out again so will be big waste if no heatwave from now to early August.

Offline moomin75  
#178 Posted : 25 May 2022 21:26:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Truly awful output summer definitely on hold for at least 10 days.

Bang on cue for the start of summer.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline moomin75  
#179 Posted : 26 May 2022 06:49:21(UTC)
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A slightly better ECM this morning, albeit still a cool unsettled spell next week first.

Hopefully the first signs of a settling down again.

GFS remains pretty crap though.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Online Ally Pally Snowman  
#180 Posted : 26 May 2022 07:38:32(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post
A slightly better ECM this morning, albeit still a cool unsettled spell next week first.
Hopefully the first signs of a settling down again.
GFS remains pretty crap though.

Yep some straws this morning from the ECM.  GFS ensembles also a little better. The continent looks like its getting hot next week so if we can get a southerly will be very warm. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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