With a definite La Nina throughout summer, I'd be making the most of the next 4-6 weeks if was a heat lover.

Early doors will provide the best of the summer IMO with a steady deterioration the further into summer we go.

One of the things l love about the UK weather is how unpredictable it is beyond about 2 weeks it remains impossible to forecast. We have no idea what June will be like let alone July and August.  We could be in for 2007 or 1976 part of the fun is no one including the professionals has a scooby.

 

One of the things l love about the UK weather is how unpredictable it is beyond about 2 weeks it remains impossible to forecast. We have no idea what June will be like let alone July and August.  We could be in for 2007 or 1976 part of the fun is no one including the professionals has a scooby.

 

Not entirely true. We can make educated predictions.

For example, summer 2018 was easily forecastable. It was there in the long rangers and was probable given the persistent ENSO neutral.

This summer is fairly easy to forecast too. Mixed. Driest and warmest early on before descending more unsettled.

 

Not entirely true. We can make educated predictions.

For example, summer 2018 was easily forecastable. It was there in the long rangers and was probable given the persistent ENSO neutral.

This summer is fairly easy to forecast too. Mixed. Driest and warmest early on before descending more unsettled.

Wasnt it supposed to be a cold winter as well.😁

There are far to many factors involved to make anything other than very vague statements IMO. 

 

Wasnt it supposed to be a cold winter as well.😁

There are far to many factors involved to make anything other than very vague statements IMO. 

The long range modelling didn't buy into a cold winter at any point. The vast majority of them showed a very +NAO pattern.

At one point during December it looked possible we'd see enough forcing for a SSW but it came to nothing. By Christmas it was 100% evident there would be no winter. Go check my posts on the other forum if you don't believe me :D

 

The long range modelling didn't buy into a cold winter at any point. The vast majority of them showed a very +NAO pattern.

At one point during December it looked possible we'd see enough forcing for a SSW but it came to nothing. By Christmas it was 100% evident there would be no winter. Go check my posts on the other forum if you don't believe me :D

I still remain of the view that this summer could  be very hot or very cool and everything in between and there's no way we can know this far out. 

WX Summary - the warmth from the south keeps coming and going; still over France and eastwards from there week 1 then in week 2 a bit further north to cover England, better than yesterday morning, not as good as yesterday evening. Cold pool hanging on, even intensifying over E Europe. Rain mainly in Atlantic and over W Europe with scattered patches elsewhere incl western UK week 1, then week 2 a more organised band through S Europe, and again the NW of Scotland still affected.

GFS Op - broad area of LP over Faeroes ATM, secondary LP over England tomorrow just about showing up. Then W-lies between LP slowly pulling away to Scandinavia and HP over S France until Sun 15th when rise of pressure just to E of Britain brings warmth from the S - not a proper plume as it's interrupted by shallow LP in the flow Wed 18th. SW-lies for a few days before HP from SW 1025mb covers Britain Tue 24th, not lasting as LP over France and Spain appears Thu 26th.

GEFS - with minor variations in timings and magnitude of max temps, much the same everywhere. Back to norm around Fri 13th then warming to max (7/8C above norm) Thu 19th  before ens members take off in all directions. A little rain tomorrow, then intermittently from Tue 17th and certainly more than shown recently.

ECM - much the same as GFS (at time of posting, yesterday's 12z from Sun 15th)

 

I still remain of the view that this summer could  be very hot or very cool and everything in between and there's no way we can know this far out. 

Long range forecast are all total rubbish and waste of time, the most reliable forecast you can get is using 80's 90's forecasts via teletext, newspapers and TV weather forecast ahead up to 1 week, no point to do over 1 week in this country.  This week was supposed to be in the 20's but failed but go back to the past forecast it would had say this week will be brief cool unsettled weather follow by warming up and settled down ahead.  

Spring forecast from Brian's homepage looks as if it will be right as far as overall temperatures are concerned. That proves only one thing: the forecast CAN be right. 

The summer forecast is resoundingly above average for temperatures. But I would have to agree that the detail (& on a geo scale the UK really is only detail) no one knows.

 

Long range forecast are all total rubbish and waste of time, the most reliable forecast you can get is using 80's 90's forecasts via teletext, newspapers and TV weather forecast ahead up to 1 week, no point to do over 1 week in this country.  This week was supposed to be in the 20's but failed but go back to the past forecast it would had say this week will be brief cool unsettled weather follow by warming up and settled down ahead.  

Completely agree, I now basically disregard any forecast/ model output beyond about 10 days.

Take the 30c heatwave that people were talking up a few days ago that ECM kept showing a day 9/10. It now looks like a very low chance of happening, with most places perhaps only getting into the low 20s next week now.

CMC 12z firing up the blowtorch next week.

CMC 12z firing up the blowtorch next week.

This is going to be a shock as I return from Scotland but at least it means I'll be able to get the accumulated washing dry Hope we get some of the thundery downpours suggested on BBC weather this morning or the gardens will really be suffering.

CMC 12z firing up the blowtorch next week.

20C. What a scorcher.

WX summary: as Col commented a few days back, the summer heatwave is matching the winter easterly as a thing that is forecast a week out but never actually happens, at least according to this morning's charts. The promised warmth no more than flirts with the SE in week 1 (despite Bran's post above) and retreats back to S France in week 2 as cooler weather from the NE spreads across Europe (except the Med) from the NE. Week 1, as yesterday, has rain in the N Atlantic also affecting western Britain, and in the Baltic; week 2 has heavy rain Ireland - England - Alps (esp heavy there) - Balkans with some patches remaining over the Baltic.

Jet : starts with a flow N of Scotland to Sun 15th then bits and pieces near S England to Tue 24th as loops on the Atlantic break up (certainly more active than shown yesterday) and finally a strong stream through the Channel

GFS Op ; zonal W-lies at first until HP appears over UK Sun 15th but never really establishes, being pushed E by Atlantic LP with any S-lies being fed more from the Atlantic than Spain. That LP finally takes over covering the UK 995mb Sun 22nd and although it moves off E-wards, is followed by a series of secondaries e.g. 1000mb SW Approaches Fri 27th.

GEFS : more cheerful, rising to ca 5c above norm around Tue 17th (but still not up to previous forecasts) dropping back to a couple of degrees above norm for most of the rest of the fortnight, so pleasant enough. Cooler in NW at first and in SW later.  Rain fairly frequent from the 17th, not much in SE, more in NW as ever.

ECM : brings the Atlantic LP deeper and closer to Scotland Wed 18th before resuming a match with GFS i.e. sitting to the W of Ireland and pushing the HP into the N Sea

GEM again the pick of the bunch this morning.  More like late July than mid May. Sadly though GFS is more like November.  ECM somewhere in between. 

UM also looking pretty good next week.

GEM again the pick of the bunch this morning.  More like late July than mid May. Sadly though GFS is more like November.  ECM somewhere in between. 

 

GFS 6Z is heading back towards hot spell territory Ally.

Still in Murray Walker territory, but of course the chance of a warm or hot spell of weather in the southern half of the UK during the spring / summer is much greater (especially these days) than that of a cold one in the winter months.

GFS 6Z is heading back towards hot spell territory Ally.

Yes good to see, but as Brian says models are really struggling for next week could still go either way. Still a huge spread of outcomes possible. 

GFS 6Z is heading back towards hot spell territory Ally.

If it does happen, it will probably be in the form of a brief plume quickly swept away by frontal systems. A case of making the most of it while you can. I notice that with these plume events, they often move further east closer to the time, in a similar way to how snow events move further north in the Winter. So by the time it arrives, it's an 'all counties east of London affair' for about 24 hours.

I'll try to be less pessimistic this year! 

Not sure I'm seeing anything too exciting/prolonged heat wise but 2-4 days of noticeably above average looks likely, biased towards the Southern half of the country, with East best. Usual question mark about cloud amounts but 25-27c looks readily achievable, maybe a touch more if there's a fair bit of sun given how dry the ground is at the moment.

Seems to be a fairly common occurrence IMBY at least over recent years - brief shots of hot air giving 2-4 days of very warm or hot weather before cooler air moves back in from the West. 

One thing I noticed IMBY is ECM op shows some showery rain Sunday into Monday - amounts to around 18mm which would be very welcome and with an uptick in cape at the same time suggests some fairly heavy downpours.