I think we are seeing here the summer heatwave equivalent of the winter severe cold spell that never quite makes it into the reliable timeframe, rather it stays at least a week away, keeps on getting pushed back and eventually disappears altogether.

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Nice to see the potential for the first 80f to be hit next week will feel very warm in parts.

WX summary temps - any heat wave deferred for a week, while the Atlantic holds sway. In week 2, a push of warm air from Spain NE-wards across France, and on to Sweden, catching England as it goes. The cold pool over C Europe also gets displaced further E-wards. Rainfall pattern matches this, mostly in week 1 from Scotland across to Baltic (Oban was mentioned on BBC last night as due to get 100mm in the next three days), week 2 splits to NW Scotland separated by dry area from fragments over E Russia. But a couple of wet 'blobs' over N France/S England hint at some local thunderstorms.

Jet - current streak across Scotland breaking up into loops by the weekend and these generally N of Britain; it's back again around Sun 22nd but weaker.

GFS Op - LP currently to NW moving across N of Scotland with some deepening at times until it drops into Sweden Sat 14th with pressure rise over Britain 1025mb E Coast Sun 15th and steady flow of air from well S or SW over the following week  while pressure remains high (flies in ointment - LP still close to NW Scotland and what looks like a small thundery LP Sat 21st in the Channel) . The Hp at end of run Wed 25th has declined to a narrow ridge N Ireland - Alps, with SE-lies and LP sitting off to the SW on one side and NW-lies down the N Sea on the other.

GEFS - in the S temps near norm to Sun 15th after which a warm/v warm week (op & control lower temps than most runs). Back to norm Wed 25th but lots of variation in ens members by then. Little rain until a cluster from Sun 22nd. Temp profiles similar in N (a little cooler to Sun 15th). Rain profile for the NE as in the S but a lot of rain in week 1 for the NW.

ECM synoptics much like GFS, though perhaps LP a bit closer to W Ireland from Sun 15th. (only 12z runs from yesterday available after that date at time of posting) EDIT re-visited now today's 0z available and LP definitely closer, also close to NW Scotland

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Nice to see the potential for the first 80f to be hit next week will feel very warm in parts.

 

Indeed,  ECM this morning probably approaching 30c in the SE by day 9.

That's one hell of a plume for May.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Indeed,  ECM this morning probably approaching 30c in the SE by day 9.

That's one hell of a plume for May.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

That normal summery charts we did not see for long time and that would be much welcome and well deserved warmth.  Good for heating to stay off as well.

 

 

Indeed,  ECM this morning probably approaching 30c in the SE by day 9.

That's one hell of a plume for May.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

Possibly not far off.

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Possibly not far off.

I think 30c is definitely a possibility next week but we will need a perfect direct heat from the plume.  

 

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Possibly not far off.

Even 24C in London would be welcome as it been extremely difficult now to obtain those temps which should be London average summer by now at 24C but down to 20C with many teen temps over the summer months.  24C will feel very warm compare to nothing special 24C in the past.

 

Even 24C in London would be welcome as it been extremely difficult now to obtain those temps which should be London average summer by now at 24C but down to 20C with many teen temps over the summer months.  24C will feel very warm compare to nothing special 24C in the past.

obviously you realise it is not yet summer, those temps would be well above average

 obviously you realise it is not yet summer, those temps would be well above average

I thought the average maximum temperature of 23-24c in London wasn't achieved until July / August too ?

surely its closer to 17-18c at this time of year ?

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I thought the average maximum temperature of 23-24c in London wasn't achieved until July / August too ?

surely its closer to 17-18c at this time of year ?

That what I mean that seeing 24C on the charts for London usually the average for summer had been reduced a lot.  

 That what I mean that seeing 24C on the charts for London usually the average for summer had been reduced a lot.  

Ok. I see what you mean. 

 

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24C is a very pleasant temperature. 23C too. Warmer is more fun of course, but in terms of physical comfort on weekdays 23-24C is as close to ideal as you’ll get.

The signals on the models recently seem to face something fairly settled right out towards late May. No obvious sign of a concerted breakdown. I wonder what that foretells for the summer (probably nothing).

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Temps on the 6z Control are persistently high after next weekend. Night time temps too- looks like a good July! Would give us a record May- CET in excess of 16?

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Temps on the 6z Control are persistently high after next weekend. Night time temps too- looks like a good July! Would give us a record May- CET in excess of 16?

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Temps on the 6z Control are persistently high after next weekend. Night time temps too- looks like a good July! Would give us a record May- CET in excess of 16?

If that comes off  I shudder to think what the summer will be like. It will be either dreadful or exceptionally good with not much in between.

A warm to hot May is often a signal for a poor summer and just looking at the good Mays the last good one with a high CET and a good summer following was May 1947.

May 1947 13.5C

 

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If that comes off  I shudder to think what the summer will be like. It will be either dreadful or exceptionally good with not much in between.

A warm to hot May is often a signal for a poor summer and just looking at the good Mays the last good one with a high CET and a good summer following was May 1947.

May 1947 13.5C

 

1989 (12.9) and 2018 (13.3) both had very good Mays (CET wise at least). Summer 18 was a cracker and 1989 certainly did its thing.

Mays of 76, 90 and 2016 were pretty good with decent summers.

Granted, there were summers like 92, 2008 and 2012 which didn't deliver at all in summer but I dont think the pattern is that clear HT.

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1989 (12.9) and 2018 (13.3) both had very good Mays (CET wise at least). Summer 18 was a cracker and 1989 certainly did its thing.

Mays of 76, 90 and 2016 were pretty good with decent summers.

Granted, there were summers like 92, 2008 and 2012 which didn't deliver at all in summer but I dont think the pattern is that clear HT.

I’ve come to think it’s better just to take the bird in the hand in these sorts of situations. There’s no strong relationship between May and summer, so while that means we can’t read too much into it there’s also no reason not to enjoy a hot spell in May. All the more so if it’s the only one. 

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1989 (12.9) and 2018 (13.3) both had very good Mays (CET wise at least). Summer 18 was a cracker and 1989 certainly did its thing.

Mays of 76, 90 and 2016 were pretty good with decent summers.

Granted, there were summers like 92, 2008 and 2012 which didn't deliver at all in summer but I dont think the pattern is that clear HT.

Was May 2012 even that good as a whole? The last 10 days were yes, but the first three weeks were diabolical. They were essentially a continuation of the weather in April and an indication of what would return in June.

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With a definite La Nina throughout summer, I'd be making the most of the next 4-6 weeks if was a heat lover.

Early doors will provide the best of the summer IMO with a steady deterioration the further into summer we go.

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