WX temp distribution like yesterday's chart, inverting the current situation i.e. in week 2 a cool-ish plunge from Scandinavia down to Poland with increased warmth on either side and notably hot in Spain and the Caspian. For Britain, very warm in the south though the extra hot weather stays just the other side of the Channel, and even Scotland sees improved temps on this run. Rain mostly east of Germany, even more pronounced in week 2; some also coming back to the northern isles by then.

Jet mainly from a W-ly direction in fits and starts; in the middle of the forecast period a loop forms to the west which promotes the LP off Ireland and the S-ly flow mentioned below before going back W-ly again

GFS Op - current trough covering UK moves away slowly but is out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th as Azores High builds in steadily eventually the 1025mb neatly follows the coasts of Britain by Mon 11th.  This is pushed E-wards by LP 1000mb off W Ireland with the prospect of some very warm air from a long way S Wed 13th; the LP then heads off to Iceland and a more normal light but still warm SW-ly affects Britain by Sun 17th.

GEFS - mean temp a little below norm now, rising to a couple of degrees above norm by Mon 11th with good agreement between ens members. Then a lot of disagreement sets in; the mean stays near norm, representing an asymmetric distribution of many ens members near norm, some much above, none much below. Both op and control have their moments at 10+C above norm on different days. Dry (the N has a little rain at first) with a few perhaps thundery spikes late on.

ECM - much like GFS

Originally Posted by: GezM

 

It does appear that we are going to get a more steady build up of heat compared with what happened in June. More widespread too so that hopefully the majority of the UK will enjoy some warm weather.

As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

I am looking forward to the coming week as, touch wood, it looks to be an unusual spell of pleasantly warm, sunny and dry weather before the thermostat cranks up. Day after day of 25-27C would be lovely, and much better if topped off by a burst of proper heat rather than that being it before a breakdown.

I like nice pleasant weather but I also like exciting heatwaves, so having several days of the former but knowing the latter is on the way is ideal. 

Originally Posted by: GezM

As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

Too true as in those setups, while the SE bakes, we have cloud and drizzle in a dank south westerly!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Historic.

That’s one for the archives. 

15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

Sitting here in Spain sweating buckets at 27 degrees.(14 is tshirt weather in scotland, 20 is scorching 😁).

Supposed to be in Paris next week and seriously thinking about canceling it due to the current forecast heat.

WX summary a bit of a downgrade for hot-weather fans this morning, though good for people like myself who like warmth without extremes. The collapse of the 'heat dome'(?) over Scandinavia with the spread of cool air into Europe from that direction is more widespread by week 2 than shown yesterday, and while Britain including Scotland warms up noticeably, the real heat only reaches to mid-France. SW Spain and Caspian still quite extreme. Most of the rain is over Scandinavia and points to the south of there; a very dry patch over Spain and France reaches S England.

GFS Op has the current trough well out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th, with the Azores High building in behind it, slowly  but more intense than shown yesterday (1040mb off W Ireland by Fri 8th), eventually ridging across Britain by Tue 12th with more of an E-ly especially for England. The LP shown yesterday on the Atlantic in week 2 with its associated strong S-ly no longer features in the forecast.

GEFS mean temp currently just below norm, rising to a little above around Sat 9th, then back to norm with much scatter between ens members but without yesterday's hot outliers. Very dry; a little rain in the N in some ens members later on.

ECM similar to GFS but the ridge which forms is a little further S (over England rather than Scotland) hence more of a W-ly for the N and less of an E-ly for the S

Originally Posted by: GezM

Subtle but significant changes on GFS this morning. The Ens is no longer moving the anticyclone far enough east to switch the wind direction around to a hot southerly. Instead, it weakens and retrogresses west, keeling us in a largely west north-westerly flow. Still mostly dry and very warm for a time however.

Yes certainly not looking like 40c now. Perhaps a few days getting to 30c but looking like a fairly long settled and dry spell.