This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during April, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for March should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.      

Historic CET summary for April

1981-2010 (30 years) 8.52C 

1991-2020 (30 years) 8.95C  

2001-2020 (20 years) 9.14C  

Last April was exceptionally cold at 6.4C, the coldest since 1986. Generally April has been a warm month in recent years with the CET exceeding 10C 5 times since 2007.  

Here is a chart of the April CET for all years since 1961  

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output     

GEFS - cold start for the first 4 days but after that the 850 mean is close to average with a slight bias towards above average conditions. Only a handful of runs make it to 20C+ later in the month.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw= 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) shows a cold temperature profile right through to 10 April - of course this is for Holland so probably not as cold here.  

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 

Met Office contingency planners outlook   

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-amj-v1.pdf

There is only a 5% chance of a cool April with a 50% chance of a warm April. So despite a chilly start to the month, the Met Office are not expecting it to stay that way. Precipitation probabilities are close to normal with a slightly increased chance of a wetter than average month. The 3 month summary is very similar to the one month summary.

Edited by moderator 02 June 2022 09:22:46(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Hippydave

Be interesting to see the spread of guesses for this month - I can't decide if I've gone with a reasonable gamble or, given the last 4-5 months, been a bit daft and will be dropping down the table. 

Given how effortlessly warm it's been so far this year and the trend over the last decade or so it's rather likely to be the latter

Well I'm surprised that the Met Office only give a 5% chance of a cool month given that the first week at least looks a fair bit below average, but we shall see.

I have a hunch this April and May are going to be similar to last year with both months significantly cold again although not quite as bad as last year.,with both months being around a degree higher. This April i would not be suprised if it is again colder than March.

Weather wise there is nothing more depressing than cold springs,we get far too many of them!

Originally Posted by: springsunshine

I have a hunch this April and May are going to be similar to last year with both months significantly cold again although not quite as bad as last year.,with both months being around a degree higher. This April i would not be suprised if it is again colder than March.

Weather wise there is nothing more depressing than cold springs,we get far too many of them!

Especially after a mild winter. There is nothing more irritating than a cold spring following a mild winter in my view. All this time the cold has had and now it shows up when many of us don't want it. It's the same as when we have a poor summer, then the perfect summer pattern arrives in October when it's useless.

Met Office Hadley          4.3c         Anomaly        -2.5c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                       2.23c       Anomaly        -5.79c

Netweather                    3.49c       Anomaly        -4.62c

Peasedown St John      2.15c       Anomaly        -6.7c.

Edited by user 03 April 2022 09:44:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: DEW

A very spiky up-and-down chart. It looks as if the most reliable forecast is "the opposite to last year"!

I hope so because I was expecting a warm up after a cold start to the month. Those cold northerlies I keep seeing in the charts are making me nervous 

Here are the predictions for April

Link to full sized chart

Met Office Hadley         5.4c      Anomaly      -1.0c provisional to 4th

Metcheck                      5.15c    Anomaly      -2.86c

Netweather                   5.38c    Anomaly      -2.75c

Peasedown St John   6.01c      Anomaly     -2.84c.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming

Here are the predictions for April

Link to full sized chart

Thanks Simon.

Met Office Hadley        7.2c      Anomaly      0.7c provisional to 6th

Metcheck                     6.56c    Anomaly      -1.46c

Netweather                  7.07c    Anomaly      -1.4c

Peasedown St john    6.98c    Anomaly    -1.82c.