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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 31 March 2022 20:46:59(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during April, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for March should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.      

Historic CET summary for April

1981-2010 (30 years) 8.52C 

1991-2020 (30 years) 8.95C  

2001-2020 (20 years) 9.14C  

Last April was exceptionally cold at 6.4C, the coldest since 1986. Generally April has been a warm month in recent years with the CET exceeding 10C 5 times since 2007.  

Here is a chart of the April CET for all years since 1961  

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output     

GEFS - cold start for the first 4 days but after that the 850 mean is close to average with a slight bias towards above average conditions. Only a handful of runs make it to 20C+ later in the month.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw= 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) shows a cold temperature profile right through to 10 April - of course this is for Holland so probably not as cold here.  

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 

Met Office contingency planners outlook   

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-amj-v1.pdf

There is only a 5% chance of a cool April with a 50% chance of a warm April. So despite a chilly start to the month, the Met Office are not expecting it to stay that way. Precipitation probabilities are close to normal with a slightly increased chance of a wetter than average month. The 3 month summary is very similar to the one month summary.

Edited by moderator 02 June 2022 09:22:46(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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Offline Hippydave  
#2 Posted : 01 April 2022 14:52:07(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,659
Location: Tunbridge Wells

Be interesting to see the spread of guesses for this month - I can't decide if I've gone with a reasonable gamble or, given the last 4-5 months, been a bit daft and will be dropping down the table. 

Given how effortlessly warm it's been so far this year and the trend over the last decade or so it's rather likely to be the latter

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: West Malling

Offline Taylor1740  
#3 Posted : 01 April 2022 16:55:58(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 512
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: Hippydave Go to Quoted Post

Be interesting to see the spread of guesses for this month - I can't decide if I've gone with a reasonable gamble or, given the last 4-5 months, been a bit daft and will be dropping down the table. 

Given how effortlessly warm it's been so far this year and the trend over the last decade or so it's rather likely to be the latter

Well I'm surprised that the Met Office only give a 5% chance of a cool month given that the first week at least looks a fair bit below average, but we shall see.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline ARTzeman  
#4 Posted : 02 April 2022 09:43:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       4.1c      Anomaly       -2.8c provisional to 1st

Metcheck                    2.10c    Anomaly        -5.92c

Netweather                 3.6c      Anomaly        -4.57c

Peasedown St John    1.72c    Anomaly     -7.13c.

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline springsunshine  
#5 Posted : 02 April 2022 11:17:10(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,820
Location: Bournemouth

I have a hunch this April and May are going to be similar to last year with both months significantly cold again although not quite as bad as last year.,with both months being around a degree higher. This April i would not be suprised if it is again colder than March.

Weather wise there is nothing more depressing than cold springs,we get far too many of them!

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#6 Posted : 02 April 2022 16:25:42(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 221
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

Worth remembering we have of course had some very warm ones to balance it out.

2011 and 2017 set successive records for the warmest ever in the CET region. 2014 and 2020 were pretty toasty too.

Offline Bolty  
#7 Posted : 02 April 2022 21:34:05(UTC)
Bolty

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Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,670
Man
Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

I have a hunch this April and May are going to be similar to last year with both months significantly cold again although not quite as bad as last year.,with both months being around a degree higher. This April i would not be suprised if it is again colder than March.

Weather wise there is nothing more depressing than cold springs,we get far too many of them!

Especially after a mild winter. There is nothing more irritating than a cold spring following a mild winter in my view. All this time the cold has had and now it shows up when many of us don't want it. It's the same as when we have a poor summer, then the perfect summer pattern arrives in October when it's useless.

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

Online DEW  
#8 Posted : 02 April 2022 22:12:51(UTC)
DEW

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 17,451
Man
Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

Last April was exceptionally cold at 6.4C, the coldest since 1986. Generally April has been a warm month in recent years with the CET exceeding 10C 5 times since 2007.  

Here is a chart of the April CET for all years since 1961  

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

 

A very spiky up-and-down chart. It looks as if the most reliable forecast is "the opposite to last year"!

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Offline ARTzeman  
#9 Posted : 03 April 2022 09:43:31(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          4.3c         Anomaly        -2.5c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                       2.23c       Anomaly        -5.79c

Netweather                    3.49c       Anomaly        -4.62c

Peasedown St John      2.15c       Anomaly        -6.7c.

Edited by user 03 April 2022 09:44:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#10 Posted : 03 April 2022 12:25:10(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 221
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

I do think April was due a correction. The warmth of the month in the 1990s and 2000s was exceptional to a degree that can't be explained by the background warming alone (ie many of them had crazy warm synoptics as well leading to persistent warmth and a complete absence of any compensating cooler spells)..

It is no surprise therefore that since 2012 we are seeing more cool weather in the month and more frequent cool editions (there having been essentially no cool Aprils between 1989 and 2012). A similar thing happened to Feb and March to a degree as well.

Back in the 1980s I don't think this kind of weather in April would raise an eyebrow.

Offline GezM  
#11 Posted : 03 April 2022 14:58:05(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,315
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

A very spiky up-and-down chart. It looks as if the most reliable forecast is "the opposite to last year"!

I hope so because I was expecting a warm up after a cold start to the month. Those cold northerlies I keep seeing in the charts are making me nervous 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline ARTzeman  
#12 Posted : 04 April 2022 09:51:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       4.3c        Anomaly       -2.1c provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                    3.51c      Anomaly        -4.51c

Netweather                 3.87c      Anomaly        -4.1c  

Peasedown St John    4.27c     Anomaly    -4.58c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#13 Posted : 04 April 2022 20:25:31(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here are the predictions for April

Link to full sized chart

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Whether Idle  
#14 Posted : 05 April 2022 06:23:21(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,188
Man
Location: Dover

Thanks for the Predictions chart GW. An interesting spread and April will clearly cause carnage however it turns out.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 05 April 2022 09:41:58(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         5.4c      Anomaly      -1.0c provisional to 4th

Metcheck                      5.15c    Anomaly      -2.86c

Netweather                   5.38c    Anomaly      -2.75c

Peasedown St John   6.01c      Anomaly     -2.84c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#16 Posted : 06 April 2022 09:38:47(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        6.5c      Anomaly     0.1c provisional  t0o 5th

Metcheck                     6.12c    Anomaly     -1.90c

Netweather                  6.49c    Anomaly     -1.62c

Peasedown St John    6.57c    Anomaly   -2.28c.        

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#17 Posted : 06 April 2022 13:24:37(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,718
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Here are the predictions for April

Link to full sized chart

Thanks Simon.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline Saint Snow  
#18 Posted : 06 April 2022 13:48:33(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 54,912
Man
Location: St Helens

I know, with the small data set, that early months are volatile, but we've gone 4.3c -> 5.4c -> 6.5c

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#19 Posted : 07 April 2022 09:42:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        7.2c      Anomaly      0.7c provisional to 6th

Metcheck                     6.56c    Anomaly      -1.46c

Netweather                  7.07c    Anomaly      -1.4c

Peasedown St john    6.98c    Anomaly    -1.82c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#20 Posted : 08 April 2022 09:43:40(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       7.3c       Anomaly     0.8c provisional to 7th

Metcheck                    6.30c     Anomaly      -1.72c

Netweather                 7.14c     Anomaly      -0.96c

Peasedown St John    6.41c   Anomaly     -2.28c.      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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