Looking like generally benign winter fayre on offer right now?

Have to agree with Gavin P when he's said: 

"There's not been anywhere near as much fog as the models projected a few days ago so that's probably made a big difference as well.

 20-30 years ago this high pressure would have delivered widespread, freezing fog lasting all day in most places. As our snow days have dwindled away so too have our fog days but even more dramatically so..."

Anyway time to move on.....

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I thought the lack of fog theses days is due to cleaner air, not many coal 🔥 ect anymore. Best freezing fog I remember was Christmas Eve 2010.

I thought the lack of fog theses days is due to cleaner air, not many coal 🔥 ect anymore. Best freezing fog I remember was Christmas Eve 2010.

I'm pretty sure that's correct yes, which I guess would also contribute to some extent to higher temperatures also, mainly in the daytime if there is less mist and fog.

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PV has done a disappearing act in the GFS 12Z FI. Not that it has any discernible impact on our weather. Out to 300hrs and we're still stuck under high pressure.

You just know we're going to pay for this later  

Good Lord, we are looking at a winter drought based on how things are looking.

Hardly a drop of rain in sight.

Summer will be a write off!! 🤣🤣
And yes, that is a joke.

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GFS is rinse and repeat (do you see what I did there).

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Good Lord, we are looking at a winter drought based on how things are looking.

Hardly a drop of rain in sight.

Summer will be a write off!! 🤣🤣
And yes, that is a joke.

Summer 2021 hasn't even ended yet. The pattern hasn't changed at all since then, save a brief blip here and there. A 'write-off' summer this year is something I would most welcome! 

My hunch is though is that when this entrenched pattern does eventually destroy itself with time, that it will in spectacular style. 

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I thought the lack of fog theses days is due to cleaner air, not many coal 🔥 ect anymore. Best freezing fog I remember was Christmas Eve 2010.

It was cold and foggy here all day on Friday into early Saturday.

I guess it depends on where any fog develops.

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GFS backing away in outer reaches for mobile weather and wants to keep it HP dominated compared to earlier

It’s probably not going to be a winter to remember for any notable spells apart from the mild spell over new year

February to come but you’d like to see some evidence change now if February was going to start differently to January

overcast today which has pegged temperatures back to a max of 4.3C 

However it looks like an overcast night which would mean the first night temperatures haven’t been below zero for 7 nights! Was hoping to keep that run going lol

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Seems to be a weak signal developing in FI for the HP to drift down to our south west, allowing more of an Atlantic influence, particularly the further North you go.

GFS has been toying with that idea, which has a certain amount of support in the ens, albeit still a reasonable clump of more HP dominated setups too. 

ECM Op seems to be heading that way with a decline in the HP post T192 and by T240 HP far enough south to allow a much more mobile flow for most. I doubt there's much agreement on that setup in the ens but definitely something to keep an eye on - HP has been a rare feature in the last 5 years or so at this time of year so you'd expect it to disappear at some stage.

 

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Very uneventful theme continues. I still think @25th we will know which was things are going to go, westerly or "a brief northerly blast at best". Either way I think there is nothing more interesting on the horizon. Cannot believe that we have had such boring runs and yet we had a lot going in our favour this winter; Easterly QBO, La Nina you name it we had it.

Hope we get something more interesting in February as I fear we will have a mild February followed by snow in March and April like we did last year followed by a crap summer.

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Very uneventful theme continues. I still think @25th we will know which was things are going to go, westerly or "a brief northerly blast at best". Either way I think there is nothing more interesting on the horizon. Cannot believe that we have had such boring runs and yet we had a lot going in our favour this winter; Easterly QBO, La Nina you name it we had it.

Hope we get something more interesting in February as I fear we will have a mild February followed by snow in March and April like we did last year followed by a crap summer.

Sorry for going OT everyone but seeing as there is not much of any interest to discuss in the model output I shall seize this opportunity to reply with my own thoughts. 

Yes and yet there is no explanation! One would have thought that with an easterly QBO the PV would be weaker and weaker zonal flow as well as an increase chances of SSW's and what's ironic is to think last year that we were in a westerly QBO yet managed x2 or 3 SSW's and weaker zonal winds and PV! - This year we had so much in our favor - not to mention the MJO into phase 7/8 as well as a neutral IOD and the eastern based La Nina, rapid cooling of SST's in NE Pacific, what more can we have in our favour for a cold winter? Oh and you forgot to mention the rapid increase in Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow cover earlier in the season.

Non one knows why we can't get sufficient HLB!? Someone shouted out about the increase in solar activity is responsible for our mild winter and record breaking warmth end of December into January? However, if this is the case then surely it would effect other regions as well such as Scandinavia, N America, Canada, Europe and Asia as well etc but the truth is that it hasn't? Seattle has seen record snow and western states including western Canada breaking records for cold weather and across the north sea Scandinavia broke records with a new low of -43.8c in December 2021 in a village called Naimakka. - Coldest temperature recorded in 35 years.

Japan has seen record snow as well as well as many other Asian countries like Pakistan etc. Eastern Europe esp the SE has seen exceptionally cold weather and this week more cold weather is heading their way and more cold weather is heading into the eastern most states of the USA as well as more lake effect snow.

My point is that there is plenty of cold and snow around but never seems to be over western Europe and when it does arrive it will be in March or April of course.

My guess is that it's due to the large area of High Pressure to the South and West of Alaska and this has been persistent for several winters now and it sends the jet southwards and LP's plunge into Canada and N America - giving them true Arctic cold and snow. We saw this last year when it turned exceptionally cold in the southern states such as Texas when Dallas Ft Worth recorded a new low of -19c in February 2021.

UK on the other hand did have a colder snap but no true locked in cold like a BFTE or Siberian air and or proper snowfall. So perhaps if we want true cold then above average pressure/heights need to lower over south of Alaska/NE Pacific and then perhaps this could promote blocking on our side of the mid latitudes so we can experience cold and snow not just the same old places such as Canada and N America?

What is also strange is how warm the Autumn has been and why we haven't recorded a below CET month since July!? We appear to be in continuous Autumn. 

Another thing which is very bizarre about this winter is the fact that the PV is strengthening as we're going into late winter instead of weakening and the temperature in the stratosphere is cooling instead of warming! Very unusual indeed.

There is still time for cold and snow of course but with nothing of interest showing in the models for the rest of January it's fair to say January will be a write off for cold and snow! By the time we get into February we would have had 2/3rd's of the winter gone with no cold spell.

So my conclusion is that an easterly QBO and La Nina (especially eastern based) along with rapid increase in Siberian snow cover and Arctic sea ice early season doesn't guarantee a cold winter despite what the analogues may show. 

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WX summary over the next 2 weeks continues to show 0C isotherm being pushed back to a position E of Poland, and the cold area around the Black Sea also shrinking. Dry week 1 exc far N Atlantic and E Med, replaced by a push of pptn across the UK and intensifying as it reaches Germany

Jet looping N of Uk in a fragmented way this week, but developing stronger W-ly from Sat 29th, to N  of Uk at first, moving S by Wed 2nd before breaking up

GFS op - N-ly fading out as it reaches UK now, but HP back over England 1040mb Fri 21st hanging around for a week (tending to move SW) before disappearing S allowing deep LP (there's a novelty!) 970mb W Scotland Fri 1st. Brief N-ly on its back edge before the final days of the chart are back to zonal.

GEFS temp dip to rather cold Fri 21st, recovering to a little above norm until Sat 29th (with fair agreement in the S), then mean a little below norm with much scatter (and quite a few cold members to pick over). Dry at first, some rain appearing from Fri 1st (a day or two earlier in Scotland, and more of it)

ECM (which goes as far as 29th) agrees with GFS but doesn't reach the point at which things change

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I have booked a week in Tomintoul, Cairngorms for the first week of February, I would take GFS this morning as it least is shows pulses of PM air and more interesting weather up there in that timeframe (which is so far into FI).

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ECM this morning in it’s far reaches, might get to have a January BBQ

 

Sorry for going OT everyone but seeing as there is not much of any interest to discuss in the model output I shall seize this opportunity to reply with my own thoughts. 

Yes and yet there is no explanation! One would have thought that with an easterly QBO the PV would be weaker and weaker zonal flow as well as an increase chances of SSW's and what's ironic is to think last year that we were in a westerly QBO yet managed x2 or 3 SSW's and weaker zonal winds and PV! - This year we had so much in our favor - not to mention the MJO into phase 7/8 as well as a neutral IOD and the eastern based La Nina, rapid cooling of SST's in NE Pacific, what more can we have in our favour for a cold winter? Oh and you forgot to mention the rapid increase in Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow cover earlier in the season.

Non one knows why we can't get sufficient HLB!? Someone shouted out about the increase in solar activity is responsible for our mild winter and record breaking warmth end of December into January? However, if this is the case then surely it would effect other regions as well such as Scandinavia, N America, Canada, Europe and Asia as well etc but the truth is that it hasn't? Seattle has seen record snow and western states including western Canada breaking records for cold weather and across the north sea Scandinavia broke records with a new low of -43.8c in December 2021 in a village called Naimakka. - Coldest temperature recorded in 35 years.

Japan has seen record snow as well as well as many other Asian countries like Pakistan etc. Eastern Europe esp the SE has seen exceptionally cold weather and this week more cold weather is heading their way and more cold weather is heading into the eastern most states of the USA as well as more lake effect snow.

My point is that there is plenty of cold and snow around but never seems to be over western Europe and when it does arrive it will be in March or April of course.

My guess is that it's due to the large area of High Pressure to the South and West of Alaska and this has been persistent for several winters now and it sends the jet southwards and LP's plunge into Canada and N America - giving them true Arctic cold and snow. We saw this last year when it turned exceptionally cold in the southern states such as Texas when Dallas Ft Worth recorded a new low of -19c in February 2021.

UK on the other hand did have a colder snap but no true locked in cold like a BFTE or Siberian air and or proper snowfall. So perhaps if we want true cold then above average pressure/heights need to lower over south of Alaska/NE Pacific and then perhaps this could promote blocking on our side of the mid latitudes so we can experience cold and snow not just the same old places such as Canada and N America?

What is also strange is how warm the Autumn has been and why we haven't recorded a below CET month since July!? We appear to be in continuous Autumn. 

Another thing which is very bizarre about this winter is the fact that the PV is strengthening as we're going into late winter instead of weakening and the temperature in the stratosphere is cooling instead of warming! Very unusual indeed.

There is still time for cold and snow of course but with nothing of interest showing in the models for the rest of January it's fair to say January will be a write off for cold and snow! By the time we get into February we would have had 2/3rd's of the winter gone with no cold spell.

So my conclusion is that an easterly QBO and La Nina (especially eastern based) along with rapid increase in Siberian snow cover and Arctic sea ice early season doesn't guarantee a cold winter despite what the analogues may show. 

 

 

Tallyho,

 

You make a lot of good points and absolutelly agree with you. Only one remark is regarding weather in SE Europe. I am from Serbia originally and winter has been a joke there. Two cold incrsions which dumped a foot of snow in 2 days  follwed by temperatures of around zero and -5 at night is hardly cold by their standards! No freezing or ice on Danube or the freezing of the big lake near Belgrade. Need to all the way to Moscow in order to come across average temps for this time of the year.

 

As we go into teh final week hopefully the High pressure could slip to the East and intensify over Ukraine. That would send colder air into SE Europe and depending on its positioning may just lead to much colder conditions over W Europe. Lets see what happens as that is far away into the future.

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No sugar coating it, the NWP is a car crash at the moment for coldies. No real sign of decent cold in any direction, including ‘faux’ cold (we know how that’s worked out this week). Ho hum.

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Tallyho,

 

You make a lot of good points and absolutelly agree with you. Only one remark is regarding weather in SE Europe. I am from Serbia originally and winter has been a joke there. Two cold incrsions which dumped a foot of snow in 2 days  follwed by temperatures of around zero and -5 at night is hardly cold by their standards! No freezing or ice on Danube or the freezing of the big lake near Belgrade. Need to all the way to Moscow in order to come across average temps for this time of the year.

 

As we go into teh final week hopefully the High pressure could slip to the East and intensify over Ukraine. That would send colder air into SE Europe and depending on its positioning may just lead to much colder conditions over W Europe. Lets see what happens as that is far away into the future.

Well one foot of snow in two days would be heaven to experience for anyone here in the UK haha!However I do understand (from my Geography) that much Serbia is mountainous esp the southern most part being in the heart of the Balkans and cities like Belgrade and Leskovac are at high level elevation. - I was watching various journalists and reporters there last week and it looked like a very snowy scene in Belgrade although may have melted by now - (I am a fan of Novak Djokovic) 😃.

Where in the UK are you reporting from? Don't you miss those nice warm hot summers and cold snowy winters?

Friends of mine in Romania have had quite a lot of cold rain and very little snow but now it's becoming really cold there but again very little if any snow..!?

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Friends of mine in Romania have had quite a lot of cold rain and very little snow but now it's becoming really cold there but again very little if any snow..!?

Isn't rain just rain? 

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Isn't rain just rain? 

C'mon now Mr Gaze, there's cold rain, warm rain, soft rain, hard rain, fat tropical rain, fine soaking rain & probably nany more types that I have missed 

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