I must admit I'd feel happier getting wet weather now. I'm sure there is no scientific evidence but dry springs make me nervous about the forthcoming summer as I like them dry and warm. 

If anybody can show us that we can get dry springs, followed by dry and warm summers then please feel free to give examples 

1975 76  2018    also 1989 and 1990 probably qualify but not everywhere . 

 

1975 76  2018    also 1989 and 1990 probably qualify but not everywhere . 

 

We get this pattern matching panic every year. Every year is different, probably more so if you buy into climate change 

 

Yes, I'm getting some 2007 vibes. This April has been nowhere near as good as April 2007 was, but the spring seen a long dry and settled spell. It would be Sod's law for the dry weather to break just in time for summer.

The pattern that set in last July just keeps repeating itself. It did all last winter and is continuing to do so now. I can't remember such a incredibly prolonged dry spell, and any rain that has fallen in the last year has been very light. No doubt this pattern will change in time but I think it will be well into summer or even next autumn before it will.

Perhaps its down to this prolonged La Nina or something, but it is interesting that the NW'n States had one of, if not the, coldest spring periods on record this year, and this after the same region had its warmest summer spell on record last year. 

Really could do with a bit of rain now - a couple of days of heavy rain followed by a week or two of warm sunshine would be lovely. 

WX temp summary little changed from yesterday "still showing lower-than-normal temps across W Europe in week 1; slightly better in week 2 as warmer temps creep N from the E Med with some modest improvement up to the Baltic". Also the same "Dry areas in week 1 along the coasts of W Europe and in the Med". In week 2 the rainfall pattern changes daily; today's version shows a patch off NW Britain and a band from S France to Romania and north to Finland.

Jet; nothing persistent until Tue 10th when something stronger running NW-SE off SW Britain

GFS op ; pressure fairly high until Wed 4th (albeit with a local disturbance over Scotland this Sunday) then LP moving to Norway Fri 6th with N-lies. A N-S ridge of HP then resumes until Fri 13th when LP sets up 985mb Rockall with broad trough to rest of UK.

GEFS; mean temp close to or a little below norm; more variation after Fri 6th than shown yesterday with op and control both amongst the coldest ens members early in this period, notably so in N but in the pack in SW. Small amounts of rain from Sun 1st, looks showery at first and more general from about Thu 12th. 

ECM; pressure not quite as high as shown in GFS with small disturbances moving S; the LP over Norway takes a day or two longer to establish

 

I must admit I'd feel happier getting wet weather now. I'm sure there is no scientific evidence but dry springs make me nervous about the forthcoming summer as I like them dry and warm. 

If anybody can show us that we can get dry springs, followed by dry and warm summers then please feel free to give examples 

Although its not your neck of the woods 2020 in the SE would take some beating. Sunniest spring on record, bone dry (although this wasn't great for the garden), 3rd hottest day ever recorded that summer and a major heatwave in August. Very regional but goes to show whats possible. 2022 spring seems like another dry one down here so far.

Spring - https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/06/02/a-local-look-at-the-record-breaking-spring-and-may-weather/

Summer - https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/09/01/a-dull-and-damp-august-brings-summer-to-a-close/

Hints of a bit of a warm up from about the 4th May. 

Hints of a bit of a warm up from about the 4th May. 

 

 

 

Those temperatures we been having lately are way much colder than New Year Day temps and when you see those 16C on 1st Jan we should be looking at mid-20's often by now but alas turn out much colder than the winter temps done.  

Hints of a bit of a warm up from about the 4th May.

A lot warmer than when I looked this morning

Hope this doesn't end up like 2007.

 

 

Didn't Spring 2020, which was dry, warm and often sunny (and we couldn't fully enjoy it as we were in hard lockdown at the time) lead to a pretty decent Summer?

It was poor summer follow by much poorer summer last year due to raw cold cloudy days under 18c all the time outside over 30C days. Was worried this Horrible Pressure will stay for long time now finally kick out with some rain follow by warming temps to average for this time of year with sun again. This last 3 days remind me or Horrible Cloud pressure set up last year and really dont want a repeat again this year.  

At last some warmth approaching the UK and W Europe, from the SW, but still a way off in week 2 while week 1 shows little change. Cool weather still sticking around the E Baltic & W Russia in week 2. In week 1 dry from N Spain up through S England to Sweden with some rain on either side incl W Scotland; in week 2 damper everywhere but mostly N & E Britain and Norway.

Jet forecast somewhat more active than forecast, esp later on - a stream near Shetland Tue 10th for a few days then around the Channel

GFS Op - pressure staying quite high over UK to Thu 12th with occasional shallow troughs drifting across (Sun 1st, rather deeper on FAX, & Thu 5th) but dropping out in favour of a broad trough Iceland - W Eire - Spain Sat 14th from which emerges LP centred W Isles 985mb Sun 15th

GEFS - mean temp starting a little below but then close to norm through to 14th with op & control very much on the warm side for most of the time from Tue 10th. In most places, rain in small bursts at first, more general from 10th; but more continuous in far N & W

ECM - similar in general terms to GFS but HP a little further W which could give locally cool NE-lies on N Sea coasts about Fri 6th

Its all a bit boring isn't it ? 

I've been looking at these maps a long time and I don't think I've ever seen such a slacked out pressure gradient over this greater region than what is forecast for this coming Sunday morning:

I think sailors and fishermen will have a smooth time of it this weekend. 

Temp summaries - still a couple of cold patches in W Russia and Turkey but generally an advance of higher temps on a broad front from W France to Poland and Ukraine. Week 1 dry from Spain to Baltic and rain on either side; week 2 the dry area squeezed out back to Spain as the rain extends from N & S - and a new dry patch over the Black Sea.

GFS op - pressure generally high over UK to Tue 10th but an Atlantic trough then slowly moves across the UK finally clearing to the E Sat 14th in favour of brisk W-lies (but not a firm forecast - last night HP was shown as hanging on near W Scotland and pushing the trough further N)

GEFS - mean temps rising to above norm, at their warmest around 10th, small amounts of rain sporadically throughout in S but more continuous and heavier in NW

ECM - has small LPs embedded in the general area of HP Mon 2nd (Wales) Wed 4th (Scotland) & Sun 8th (NI) but then develops the HP more strongly at end of run Tue 10th off W Scotland (blocking any approach from Atlantic like last night's GFS) with NE-lies for S England

Note - daily reviews for the next two weeks and a bit are likely to be sporadic as I shall be on holiday. Posting is going to depend on breakfast arrangements in the various B&Bs and on connectivity in Scottish glens

Temp summary; warm weather advancing on a broad front N-wards, week 1 to the Alps, week 2 to the Baltic; the UK esp the SE is on the edge of the latter improvement. Continuing v dry in area from Spain to S England to Baltic with rain either side week 1; still dry-ish in these areas week 2 but some rain, and the rain to the N peps up (esp NW Scotland).

GFS Op; Pressure remaining high for the UK until Tue 10th (Atlantic LP gets rather close to W Scotland Thu 5th), then a broad trough from the N covers all UK Thu 12th before HP rebuilds from the SE 1030 mb Holland Tue 17th (SW gales for the Hebrides)

FAX is less optimistic and shows slack pressure for the next few days with small shallow LPs and fronts randomly affecting the UK

GEFS: mean close to norm throughout, affected by op & control which are on the warm side around Fri 6th and cooler around Sat 14th. Small amounts of rain but quite frequent, and rather heavier in NW later on.

ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z) runs to Tue 10th and like GFS to that point but no hint of the HP collapsing as GFS has it.

Hope this doesn't end up like 2007.

 

 

It wouldn't surprise me if we finally got that much needed rainfall during the summer, within the very time of year when those of us who are looking for a decent summer (i.e. one which is hot, dry and sunny) don't want to be seeing it.

Temp summary; warm weather advancing on a broad front N-wards, week 1 to the Alps, week 2 to the Baltic; the UK esp the SE is on the edge of the latter improvement. Continuing v dry in area from Spain to S England to Baltic with rain either side week 1; still dry-ish in these areas week 2 but some rain, and the rain to the N peps up (esp NW Scotland).

GFS Op; Pressure remaining high for the UK until Tue 10th (Atlantic LP gets rather close to W Scotland Thu 5th), then a broad trough from the N covers all UK Thu 12th before HP rebuilds from the SE 1030 mb Holland Tue 17th (SW gales for the Hebrides)

FAX is less optimistic and shows slack pressure for the next few days with small shallow LPs and fronts randomly affecting the UK

GEFS: mean close to norm throughout, affected by op & control which are on the warm side around Fri 6th and cooler around Sat 14th. Small amounts of rain but quite frequent, and rather heavier in NW later on.

ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z) runs to Tue 10th and like GFS to that point but no hint of the HP collapsing as GFS has it.

Sounds nice there.