Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Monday, January 3, 2022 8:56:37 AM

Originally Posted by: western100 

 

Thanks GW

Lots going mild for January 

It would be quite easy just to go for a default 1C above average for this month, or indeed most months. However I fell that there were enough cold signals out there to rein that tempation in, therfore I went for something only slightly above average.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

ARTzeman
Monday, January 3, 2022 11:25:36 AM

Met Office Hadley        11.3c       Anomaly      7.7c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                     10.57c     Anomaly      6.42c

Netweather                  11.53c     Anomaly      7.34c

Peasedown St John      11.37c     Anomaly     5.92c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
Monday, January 3, 2022 12:17:47 PM

Thank you everyone for your kind messages that were sent with your January predictions. Looking forward to another year of the competition. Sorry I meant to mention that yesterday.

I have had a few predictions in for the annual CET as well so here is the table for the record.

UserPostedImage

Table


Whether Idle
Monday, January 3, 2022 4:28:28 PM

Seeing the CET at 11.3 is fairly terrifying with a guess just below the LTA.  Nevertheless, Im hoping for quite a lot of high pressure to bring some foggy days and some chilly nights as the month progresses, and I hope an absence of more record breaking mildness.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bertwhistle
Monday, January 3, 2022 4:35:46 PM

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thank you everyone for your kind messages that were sent with your January predictions. Looking forward to another year of the competition. Sorry I meant to mention that yesterday.

I have had a few predictions in for the annual CET as well so here is the table for the record.

UserPostedImage

Table

Thanks GW; I'd quite like to do this one as well- but does it have the same deadline penalty-free, given the timescale?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

western100
Monday, January 3, 2022 7:44:48 PM

Its coming down slowly lol

Down to 10.1 IMBY

Cold few days ahead will drop it to 6-7 from my estimate


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

Twitter…..@Weather4u2

Global Warming
Monday, January 3, 2022 8:25:41 PM

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

 

Thanks GW; I'd quite like to do this one as well- but does it have the same deadline penalty-free, given the timescale?

The deadline is more flexible on this one given the annual nature of the prediction. I am happy to keep it open for another day or two so feel free to send in your prediction.


Ally Pally Snowman
Monday, January 3, 2022 8:44:53 PM

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

The deadline is more flexible on this one given the annual nature of the prediction. I am happy to keep it open for another day or two so feel free to send in your prediction.

I've just sent you my guess. Cheers again GW.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
Tuesday, January 4, 2022 11:18:55 AM

Met  Office Hadley        10.5c      Anomaly      7.1c        provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                      9.41c     Anomaly       5.25c

Netweather                   10.6c     Anomaly      6.41C

Peasedown St John      9.14c     Anomaly    3.69c.

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

redmoons
Tuesday, January 4, 2022 11:59:05 AM

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Met  Office Hadley        10.5c      Anomaly      7.1c        provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                      9.41c     Anomaly       5.25c

Netweather                   10.6c     Anomaly      6.41C

Peasedown St John      9.14c     Anomaly    3.69c.

 

That must be one of the highest anomalies for the beginning of a month, excluding the first day?


Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Spring Sun Winter Dread
Tuesday, January 4, 2022 12:36:13 PM

I did a double take at those annual CET guesses thinking they might be mad mild Jan predictions !
I am sure one year we will see Jan or Feb records smashed in much the same way as Dec 2015 tore up the record books.
People on here will moan and moan when it happens but I always find an extreme CET interesting whichever end of the scale it's at. Saving a bundle on heating is always a bonus too...

ARTzeman
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 10:45:43 AM

Met Office Hadley        8.8c        Anomaly       5.4c provisional to 4th

Metcheck                     7.84c      Anomaly       3.68c

Netweather                  8.92c      Anomaly       4.73c

Peasedown St John     7.4c       Anomaly        1.99c.       




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 11:26:39 AM

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

I did a double take at those annual CET guesses thinking they might be mad mild Jan predictions !
I am sure one year we will see Jan or Feb records smashed in much the same way as Dec 2015 tore up the record books.
People on here will moan and moan when it happens but I always find an extreme CET interesting whichever end of the scale it's at. Saving a bundle on heating is always a bonus too...

This past 3 days shows just what's possible as we learned from Decmber 2015.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



johncs2016
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 10:47:59 PM

It's possible that I might be wrong with what I'm about to say, but I am pretty certain that Gavin P. mentioned in a recent video that the Met Office were going to be moving away from using the really old 1961-1991 averages for their CET page (where I will assume that Arty gets the info for his daily updates here, although I'm sure that he will tell me otherwise if that isn't the case), and switching to the much more up to date 1991-2020 averages for that.

Since the vast majority of months are usually warmer than average these days, I'm sure that this will result in those temperature anomalies being much smaller as a result, with more months possibly even being colder than average. I'm almost certain that Gavin P. had said that this change would happen during this month (although as I have said already, I could be wrong there), but that hasn't happened yet.

I am therefore wondering whether or not, anyone knows of any plans by the Met Office to start using those newer averages for the CET anamolies instead of the old ones, and possibly even when that is likely to happen.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

ARTzeman
Thursday, January 6, 2022 11:58:19 AM

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

It's possible that I might be wrong with what I'm about to say, but I am pretty certain that Gavin P. mentioned in a recent video that the Met Office were going to be moving away from using the really old 1961-2020 averages for their CET page (where I will assume that Arty gets the info for his daily updates here, although I'm sure that he will tell me otherwise if that isn't the case), and switching to the much more up to date 1991-2020 averages for that.

Since the vast majority of months are usually warmer than average these days, I'm sure that this will result in those temperature anomalies being much smaller as a result, with more months possibly even being colder than average. I'm almost certain that Gavin P. had said that this change would happen during this month (although as I have said already, I could be wrong there), but that hasn't happened yet.

I am therefore wondering whether or not, anyone knows of any plans by the Met Office to start using those newer averages for the CET anamolies instead of the old ones, and possibly even when that is likely to happen.

I Have enquired to Met Office who will reply soon.

They may be staying with the present figures due to climate warming.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
Thursday, January 6, 2022 12:01:42 PM

Met Office Hadley        7.7c       Anomaly      4.3c provisional to 5th

Metcheck                     6.57c     Anomaly      2.42c

Netweather                  7.7c      Anomaly       3.57c

Peasedown St John      7.75c    Anomaly       2.5c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

johncs2016
Thursday, January 6, 2022 4:16:03 PM

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

 

I Have enquired to Met Office who will reply soon.

They may be staying with the present figures due to climate warming.

Thanks for that Arty.

People often laugh at your typos not just on these threads, but also on the daily CC and monthly precipitation threads even though they are usually very few and far between.

The reason why I have mentioned that is because I realised after posting here that I had made a typo here myself, as I had written 1961-2020 as the old averages when I meant to say 1961-1991.

Luckily, I was able to fix that in my own post but if someone then quotes what I have posted into their reply, I then can't fix that as the only person who can do that is the person who actually made that reply.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Thursday, January 6, 2022 6:38:22 PM

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

 

Thanks for that Arty.

People often laugh at your typos not just on these threads, but also on the daily CC and monthly precipitation threads even though they are usually very few and far between.

The reason why I have mentioned that is because I realised after posting here that I had made a typo here myself, as I had written 1961-2020 as the old averages when I meant to say 1961-1991.

Luckily, I was able to fix that in my own post but if someone then quotes what I have posted into their reply, I then can't fix that as the only person who can do that is the person who actually made that reply.

 

Don't worry about typos. Seriously, nobody cares.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

johncs2016
Thursday, January 6, 2022 8:32:48 PM

Originally Posted by: Col 

 

Don't worry about typos. Seriously, nobody cares.

I generally don't worry about typos, but they can be funny at times and there's nothing like a laugh every now and then.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

western100
Thursday, January 6, 2022 8:54:08 PM
It’s coming down slowly 🤣

IMBY now 5.9 still very high for January but I’m confident it’ll come under 5 this month

See how cold it gets next week if HP provides good conditions


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

Twitter…..@Weather4u2

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