The 18z GFS is remarkable in that the same high pressure cell that brings 1035 mb into the British Isles this Wed 19th remains over these islands maintaining 1035 mb at least until February. Can't be many examples of similar through chart history even îf it was to come off!

The 18z GFS is remarkable in that the same high pressure cell that brings 1035 mb into the British Isles this Wed 19th remains over these islands maintaining 1035 mb at least until February. Can't be many examples of similar through chart history even îf it was to come off!

 

Agreed - and a little further west and we could have had another 1963 - small margins and massive variance in experience. The disrupted jet, stuck and delivering a nice high pressure block for a long period. Ideal, if only it were slightly further north and west. Ah well, another year perhaps, but I’m reminded that we are running out of time with that ticking clock - Oh yes life on this mortal coil, but also the dreaded rising temperatures. May be next winter - but who knows - that old displaced Azores High might yet find its way to a vacation off Greenland or its old friend  now estranged - the Scandi high. Now that would be a welcome reunion.

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Pretty grim output just now if you're after cold and snow.

Although the Azores High has headed further North for it's Winter holidays, there is very little sign of it building a sustainable ridge to Greenland. There's not enough energy heading South and underneath the High unfortunately.

Looking at the current set up, it may be that the best chance of getting some sustainable Northern blocking as we head into February, may come from a migrating Siberian High. An endless conveyer belt of energy seems to be heading off Newfoundland towards Greenland and there's no sign of that stopping any time soon.

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Ops showing us the Atlantic...well I suppose it will make a change if nothing else!

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There are signs appearing in the output for a breakdown in HP at the end of the GFS. Other models don’t go as far but it’s one to start to track

For some time it’s been HP dominated shown start to end but I have a feeling we will start to see the end creeping in now with each model run 

It looks like the pattern will flatten to bring westerly winds (something the UK has rarely had this winter)

In the meantime it’s as we were, dry, chilly nights under clear skies and temperatures responding well in any sun

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Temperatures do seem to be responding well during the day, and contrary to what a lot of output was suggesting under this high pressure when ice days for inland areas projected. It seems remarkable to me under clear frosty nights and slack winds we have 10C in the afternoons, in January.
The times might really be a changing.

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Time today take a bit of cold searching break I think ! Enjoy the sun and cold nights not bad weather. Atlantic looks like it will finally come in

WX summary supporting the idea of W-lies as the 0C isotherm is pushed back across C Europe in week 2 and something a little milder appears off SW Eire. Still dry week 1, more pptn from the N and across C Europe week 2

Jet looping to the N at first then W-ly from Feb 1st

GFS op = HP looking a bit more mobile; to the W later this week with N-lies down N Sea on Thu; back over UK for a while but sinking S Wed 26th with W-lies appearing over Scotland, back again on Sun 30th but then moving S again and looking flabby with SW-ly influence Wed 2nd

GEFS cold Thu 20th then close to norm with good agreement to Thu 27th after which a balanced spread from v mild to v cold. Dry at first, a little rain later on esp in N.

ECM keeps HP over UK after Wed 26th

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As Neil alluded to above..diurnal is high for mid Jan..yesterday's max was 9.1c...with last night down to -4.1c

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Another good frost last night, -3.1 making it 6 nights in a row below freezing

We would never get ice days in January with unbroken sunshine with upper air temperatures 0 to +5 which they have been most of the month

Ice days more commonly reserved for overcast scenarios in that set up

Ice days with unbroken sun require much colder upper air. If we were entrenched in -10 850s and clear skies during the day then I would expect sub zero maxes

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Temperatures do seem to be responding well during the day, and contrary to what a lot of output was suggesting under this high pressure when ice days for inland areas projected. It seems remarkable to me under clear frosty nights and slack winds we have 10C in the afternoons, in January.
The times might really be a changing.

Agree. I made the same point the other day on Twitter. The diurnal variation has given a spring like feel to the weather in recent days around here. Local factors have probably contributed, but it has felt pleasantly warm in the afternoon sunshine with temperatures between 10C and 12C.

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Another good frost last night, -3.1 making it 6 nights in a row below freezing

We would never get ice days in January with unbroken sunshine with upper air temperatures 0 to +5 which they have been most of the month

Ice days more commonly reserved for overcast scenarios in that set up

Ice days with unbroken sun require much colder upper air. If we were entrenched in -10 850s and clear skies during the day then I would expect sub zero maxes

I believe ice days under clear blue skies in January are possible, if the air mass is sourced cold and uppers are (as you say) low - or not if inversions are involved.

The point I was making is the models haven't done very well on temperatures as many central parts of England were promised ice days this week which of course is not the case by a long way.

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I believe ice days under clear blue skies in January are possible, if the air mass is sourced cold and uppers are (as you say) low - or not if inversions are involved.

The point I was making is the models haven't done very well on temperatures as many central parts of England were promised ice days this week which of course is not the case by a long way.

Spot on. Maxes between 5 & 10'c in the last week despite air frost on most nights. Without a lot of fog it seems that this will continue. Yesterday certainly felt like early Spring in the sunshine 

I'm not liking the last couple of GFS runs showing the high sinking and mild westerlies coming in. I just hope February isn't another disappointment after a fairly poor Winter so far.

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Mild westerlies - yuck. What a shame we can't hang onto this gorgeous HP a bit longer.

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I'm not liking the last couple of GFS runs showing the high sinking and mild westerlies coming in. I just hope February isn't another disappointment after a fairly poor Winter so far.

The sort of 'milder westerlies' the UKMO were suggesting a few days ago and have been projecting in the longer range text forecasts for a while and were largely criticized for not knowing what they were talking about

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The sort of 'milder westerlies' the UKMO were suggesting a few days ago and have been projecting in the longer range text forecasts for a while and were largely criticized for not knowing what they were talking about

Yeah those that are hoping for a change in the weather - I would say be careful what you wish for, would much rather stick with this frosty sunny high for a few more weeks.

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Temperatures do seem to be responding well during the day, and contrary to what a lot of output was suggesting under this high pressure when ice days for inland areas projected. It seems remarkable to me under clear frosty nights and slack winds we have 10C in the afternoons, in January.
The times might really be a changing.

There's not been anywhere near as much fog as the models projected a few days ago so that's probably made a big difference as well.

20-30 years ago this high pressure would have delivered widespread, freezing fog lasting all day in most places. As our snow days have dwindled away so too have our fog days but even more dramatically so...

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There's not been anywhere near as much fog as the models projected a few days ago so that's probably made a big difference as well.

20-30 years ago this high pressure would have delivered widespread, freezing fog lasting all day in most places. As our snow days have dwindled away so too have our fog days but even more dramatically so...

 

I really miss those foggy days in winter.

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