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December UK temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,701   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Merry Christmas everybody!   |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2007(UTC) Posts: 632 Location: Frittenden
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Merry Christmas to everyone too - what are you doing up at this time Caz - got a really big turkey? I;ve an excuse as I'm over in the States so it's not midnight here yet! Rick
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,153  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Merry Christmas Folks. Hope you had a good day. Met Office Hadley 5.9c Anomaly 1.1c provisional to24th Metcheck 5.68c Anomaly 0.69c Netweather 6.22c Anomaly 1.13c Peasedown St John 6.25c Anomaly 1.65c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,153  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 5.9c Anomaly 1.1c provisional to 25th Metcheck 5.64c Anomaly 0.63c Netweather 6.2c Anomaly 1.11c Peasedown St John 6.9c Anomaly 2.0c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,153  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 5.9c Anomaly 1.1c provisional to 26th Metcheck 5.65c Anomaly 9.64c Netweather 6.18c Anomaly 0.78c Peasedown St John 5.68c Anomaly 0.78c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 4,678  Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m
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The mild weather at the end of the this week is going to push that figure up a bit, before we get the usual downward correction. Could this be the first ever December to record a 5.9 CET? |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,701   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: rickm  Merry Christmas to everyone too - what are you doing up at this time Caz - got a really big turkey? I;ve an excuse as I'm over in the States so it's not midnight here yet! Rick  I’m always up early but yes, a big turkey. Cooking dinner for 14, although we’ll be plating one up and delivering it to the doorstep of one who won’t be coming as she has Covid. Enjoy The States! |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,701   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Bolty  The mild weather at the end of the this week is going to push that figure up a bit, before we get the usual downward correction. Could this be the first ever December to record a 5.9 CET? I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes above 6c. Depends how it adjusts at month end! |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,805 Location: Central Southern England
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Has anybody an idea of highest December CET days? It is really extraorinary that there could be some higher than 14C at the end of the month. I note 13.1 on 19th in 2015 and wondered if we might pip it. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,153  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 5.9c Anomaly 1.2c provisional to 27th Metcheck 5.75c Anomaly 0.76c Netweather 6.26c Anomaly 1.17c Peasedown St John 5.67c Anomaly 0.77c |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC) Posts: 494 Location: Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
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Currently 6.1 IMBY Set to rise significantly next few days Mild start but not quite the heights of 2015 🤯 |
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border 100m ASL Twitter…..@Weather4u2 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,153  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 6.0c Anomaly 1.3c provisional to 28th Mercheck 5.81c Anomaly 0.82c Netweather 6.36c Anomaly 1.27c Peasedown St John 6.87c Anomaly 1.97c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,805 Location: Central Southern England
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Carol Kirkwood's BBC forecast suggests minima of 14C and in the E even 15C tonight (ridiculous!); put this with a 16 or even 17C max and we could end up with a local T for tomorrow of between 15 and 16C. I think that must be unprecedented in England in December and could lead to a CET (since both max & min are forecast not far off this ) for the day of 13-14C at least. Could be the highest ever December CET. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 221   Location: Aylesbury, Bucks
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It is strange how it almost seems easier to get a very warm night with temps well into double figures at this time of year than it is in March or April. Mainly because mild weather is often associated with cloud at this time of year while in March or April it tends to coincide with sunshine and clear skies which mean radiative cooling overnight.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,805 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread  It is strange how it almost seems easier to get a very warm night with temps well into double figures at this time of year than it is in March or April. Mainly because mild weather is often associated with cloud at this time of year while in March or April it tends to coincide with sunshine and clear skies which mean radiative cooling overnight.
Also, the sea temperatures are still higher in December in our region than they are in March or April, or indeed May in most cases, and that is also true of the long-fetch oceanic source of the current airstream. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 12,620   Location: Crowthorne, Berks
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  Has anybody an idea of highest December CET days? It is really extraorinary that there could be some higher than 14C at the end of the month. I note 13.1 on 19th in 2015 and wondered if we might pip it. According to https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat the highest CET mean temperature for December is 13.1C, on 19/12/2015. The next highest was 12.9C on 12/12/1994. The full list of highest means by month is as follows: Jan | 11.6 | Feb | 12.8 | Mar | 15.1 | Apr | 19.7 | May | 21.2 | Jun | 23.0 | Jul | 25.2 | Aug | 25.1 | Sep | 22.6 | Oct | 20.2 | Nov | 15.4 | Dec | 13.1 |
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Darren Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl) South Berkshire Winter 2021/2: Snow Days: 4 Snow Cover Days: 1 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 1 cm Total Depth: 1 cm Arborfield Winter Snow Depth Totals: 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,067  Location: West Hants
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser  Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C. That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C. In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C. With only a third of the month left to go, we still had very wrong predictions from the forecast models! In line with GW's latest projection, a finish in the low to mid-6s is now likely. The setup was very finely balanced on 24th-25th but in the end the NAO just wasn't quite negative enough to force the required level of trough disruption and bring the cold air right in across most of the UK.
That meant no 'wall of cold' for the following Atlantic lows to have to break down, so the westerlies surged in with little resistance. A very mild finish might still have occurred (the Iberian high signal was starting to show on 24th), but delayed by a couple of days, with the CET having fallen considerably by the time it set in. On social media, there's been much pointing of fingers at an uptick in solar activity. The higher the activity, the more positive the NAO tends to be. From research papers, it does seem plausible that the short-term uptick had a slight, yet crucial impact on the NAO. It's a sad thought for someone like me who greatly enjoys what the sun has to offer 99% of the time. Hopefully it will make up for it during 2022! I tell you what though, if you ever needed an example to show how absolutely unpredictable the Hadley CET is, this is it! We're essentially throwing arrows at a dartboard after 7 pints while looking through the bottom of the glass! 
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Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 630  Location: Quantocks, West Somerset, 90masl
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On current forecasts it looks like the highest CET daily mean for January could be shattered. Mind you I'm actually quite surprised that it's as low as 11.6c Interesting times. |
Currently living at about 80m asl just off the Quantocks in Somerset. Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,940  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser  We're essentially throwing arrows at a dartboard after 7 pints while looking through the bottom of the glass!  That's when I play my best darts!! 
Early congrats to SSWD.  |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 221   Location: Aylesbury, Bucks
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Many thanks Saint Snow. I will have won the year without winning a single individual month (and indeed this final month am nowhere near as seriously under estimated what I always thought was an inevitable mild correction!) , not sure how common this is ? Possibly quite common... like taking the Tour de France without winning a stage ...
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