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Offline Caz  
#121 Posted : 25 December 2021 06:22:12(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,701
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Merry Christmas everybody!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline rickm  
#122 Posted : 25 December 2021 06:30:51(UTC)
rickm

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2007(UTC)
Posts: 632
Location: Frittenden

Merry Christmas to everyone too - what are you doing up at this time Caz - got a really big turkey?

I;ve an excuse as I'm over in the States so it's not midnight here yet!

 

Rick

Offline ARTzeman  
#123 Posted : 25 December 2021 22:13:29(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,153
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Merry Christmas Folks. Hope you had a good day.

Met Office Hadley            5.9c          Anomaly        1.1c provisional to24th

Metcheck                         5.68c        Anomaly         0.69c

Netweather                      6.22c        Anomaly         1.13c

Peasedown St John        6.25c      Anomaly         1.65c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#124 Posted : 26 December 2021 11:16:59(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,153
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         5.9c        Anomaly        1.1c  provisional to  25th

Metcheck                      5.64c      Anomaly        0.63c

Netweather                   6.2c        Anomaly        1.11c

Peasedown St John      6.9c      Anomaly      2.0c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#125 Posted : 27 December 2021 11:06:32(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,153
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      5.9c       Anomaly      1.1c provisional to  26th

Metcheck                   5.65c     Anomaly      9.64c

Netweather                6.18c     Anomaly      0.78c

Peasedown St John     5.68c    Anomaly      0.78c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online Bolty  
#126 Posted : 27 December 2021 11:56:34(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,678
Man
Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

The mild weather at the end of the this week is going to push that figure up a bit, before we get the usual downward correction. Could this be the first ever December to record a 5.9 CET?
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

Offline Caz  
#127 Posted : 27 December 2021 17:00:18(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,701
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: rickm Go to Quoted Post

Merry Christmas to everyone too - what are you doing up at this time Caz - got a really big turkey?

I;ve an excuse as I'm over in the States so it's not midnight here yet!

 

Rick

 I’m always up early but yes, a big turkey.  Cooking dinner for 14, although we’ll be plating one up and delivering it to the doorstep of one who won’t be coming as she has Covid.  Enjoy The States! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline Caz  
#128 Posted : 27 December 2021 17:01:51(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,701
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Bolty Go to Quoted Post
The mild weather at the end of the this week is going to push that figure up a bit, before we get the usual downward correction. Could this be the first ever December to record a 5.9 CET?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes above 6c. Depends how it adjusts at month end!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline Bertwhistle  
#129 Posted : 27 December 2021 17:14:18(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England

Has anybody an idea of highest December CET days? It is really extraorinary that there could be some higher than 14C at the end of the month.

I note 13.1 on 19th in 2015 and wondered if we might pip it.

 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#130 Posted : 28 December 2021 10:45:40(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,153
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          5.9c        Anomaly        1.2c provisional to 27th

Metcheck                       5.75c      Anomaly        0.76c

Netweather                    6.26c      Anomaly        1.17c

Peasedown St John      5.67c      Anomaly      0.77c           

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline western100  
#131 Posted : 28 December 2021 18:59:15(UTC)
western100

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC)
Posts: 494
Location: Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

Currently 6.1 IMBY

Set to rise significantly next few days

Mild start but not quite the heights of 2015 🤯

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

Twitter…..@Weather4u2

Offline ARTzeman  
#132 Posted : 29 December 2021 10:56:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,153
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      6.0c         Anomaly      1.3c   provisional to 28th

Mercheck                   5.81c       Anomaly        0.82c

Netweather                6.36c       Anomaly        1.27c

Peasedown St  John  6.87c     Anomaly       1.97c.       

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bertwhistle  
#133 Posted : 29 December 2021 12:01:29(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England

Carol Kirkwood's BBC forecast suggests minima of 14C and in the E even 15C tonight (ridiculous!); put this with a 16 or even 17C max and we could end up with a local T for tomorrow of between 15 and 16C. I think that must be unprecedented in England in December and could lead to a CET (since both max & min are forecast not far off this ) for the day of 13-14C at least. Could be the highest ever December CET.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#134 Posted : 29 December 2021 15:11:56(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 221
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

It is strange how it almost seems easier to get a very warm night with temps well into double figures at this time of year than it is in March or April.

Mainly because mild weather is often associated with cloud at this time of year while in March or April it tends to coincide with sunshine and clear skies which mean radiative cooling overnight.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#135 Posted : 29 December 2021 15:17:02(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
It is strange how it almost seems easier to get a very warm night with temps well into double figures at this time of year than it is in March or April.
Mainly because mild weather is often associated with cloud at this time of year while in March or April it tends to coincide with sunshine and clear skies which mean radiative cooling overnight.

Also, the sea temperatures are still higher in December in our region than they are in March or April, or indeed May in most cases, and that is also true of the long-fetch oceanic source of the current airstream.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Darren S  
#136 Posted : 29 December 2021 15:23:22(UTC)
Darren S

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,620
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Crowthorne, Berks

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

Has anybody an idea of highest December CET days? It is really extraorinary that there could be some higher than 14C at the end of the month.

I note 13.1 on 19th in 2015 and wondered if we might pip it.

 

According to https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat the highest CET mean temperature for December is 13.1C, on 19/12/2015. The next highest was 12.9C on 12/12/1994.

The full list of highest means by month is as follows:

Jan11.6
Feb12.8
Mar15.1
Apr19.7
May21.2
Jun23.0
Jul25.2
Aug25.1
Sep22.6
Oct20.2
Nov15.4
Dec13.1
Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berkshire Winter 2021/2: Snow Days: 4 Snow Cover Days: 1 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 1 cm Total Depth: 1 cm

Arborfield Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Offline Stormchaser  
#137 Posted : 29 December 2021 19:21:53(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,067
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.

That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.

In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.

With only a third of the month left to go, we still had very wrong predictions from the forecast models!

In line with GW's latest projection, a finish in the low to mid-6s is now likely.


The setup was very finely balanced on 24th-25th but in the end the NAO just wasn't quite negative enough to force the required level of trough disruption and bring the cold air right in across most of the UK.

That meant no 'wall of cold' for the following Atlantic lows to have to break down, so the westerlies surged in with little resistance.

A very mild finish might still have occurred (the Iberian high signal was starting to show on 24th), but delayed by a couple of days, with the CET having fallen considerably by the time it set in.

On social media, there's been much pointing of fingers at an uptick in solar activity. The higher the activity, the more positive the NAO tends to be. From research papers, it does seem plausible that the short-term uptick had a slight, yet crucial impact on the NAO.

It's a sad thought for someone like me who greatly enjoys what the sun has to offer 99% of the time. Hopefully it will make up for it during 2022!


I tell you what though, if you ever needed an example to show how absolutely unpredictable the Hadley CET is, this is it! We're essentially throwing arrows at a dartboard after 7 pints while looking through the bottom of the glass! 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline scillydave  
#138 Posted : 29 December 2021 20:05:21(UTC)
scillydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 630
Man
Location: Quantocks, West Somerset, 90masl

On current forecasts it looks like the highest CET daily mean for January could be shattered. Mind you I'm actually quite surprised that it's as low as 11.6c

Interesting times.

Currently living at about 80m asl just off the Quantocks in Somerset.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Offline Saint Snow  
#139 Posted : 30 December 2021 00:05:06(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 54,940
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 We're essentially throwing arrows at a dartboard after 7 pints while looking through the bottom of the glass! 

 

That's when I play my best darts!!

 

Early congrats to SSWD. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#140 Posted : 30 December 2021 11:16:35(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 221
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

Many thanks Saint Snow.

I will have won the year without winning a single individual month (and indeed this final month am nowhere near as seriously under estimated what I always thought was an inevitable mild correction!) , not sure how common this is ?

Possibly quite common... like taking the Tour de France without winning a stage ...

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