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December UK temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,429  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle  Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready. You have the wrong end of the stick |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,429 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay Table 
Thanks, GW and, like others have said, don't worry about the delay. Glad you're OK. |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,233 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 6.3c Anomaly 1.5c provisional to 19th Metcheck 5.98c Anomaly 0.99c Netweather 6.47c Anomaly 1.38c Peasedown St John 7.2 Anomaly 2.3c. Edited by user 20 December 2021 11:02:38(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 1,018   Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay Table Life is busy  Thanks for all your efforts |
119.377 m /391.658 feet asl NW Kent
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,233 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 6.1c Anomaly 1.3c provisional to20th Metcheck 5.89c Anomaly 0.89 Netweather 6.4c Anomaly 1.31c Peasedown St John 6.54c Anomaly 2.44c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,076 Location: West Hants
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Thanks for the update GW. Nice to know I'm not out on a limb with a near-average prediction - had that happen more than once this year! Continuing to see 'neutralising' GFS output, CET-wise. Perhaps even a touch below 5°C to finish, if cold air hangs on right to the end of the year - such an outcome has gained a bit of model support today. https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1473382081044656134
As you can imagine, I've been on a very tension-inducing ride these past few days, with scenarios ranging from an average to mild final week to generally cold or very cold.
A bit of a coming together on 'mostly cold, possible interruption around 30th' by today's 12z set. The global weather patterns are in an extremely perturbed state at the moment due to a very prolonged Pacific MJO event conflicting with the La Nina base state, so the models are likely to continue having a hard time resolving blocking features, which should tend to feature a lot more than usual for at least a few more weeks. Which is to say, I'm not anticipating an easy opening month to 2022 for this competition!  |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,076 Location: West Hants
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Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C. That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C. In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C. Edited by user 21 December 2021 20:29:30(UTC)
| Reason: Numerical Oddity |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,429 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C. That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C. In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C. This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,233 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 6.0c Anomaly 1.2c provisional to 21st Metcheck 5.7c Anomaly 9.c Netweather 6.28c Anomaly 1.10c Peasedown St John 6.54c Anomaly 1.64c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,383 Location: St Albans
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. Even more so today. I now think that it will be well over 5.0C by the end of the month .... |
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,854
Location: Bournemouth
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Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,216
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Originally Posted by: springsunshine Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c Reckon my guess of 6.5c is going to be close. Males a change for me to be anywhere near!! 🤣🤣 |
Witney, Oxfordshire 100m ASL |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,233 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 5.9c Anomaly 1.0c provisional to 22nd Metcheck 5.62 Anomaly 0.63c Netweather 6.1c Anomaly 1.01c Peasedown St John 6.35c Anomaly 1.63c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st. Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C. Chart 1 Chart 2 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,383 Location: St Albans
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st. Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C. Chart 1 Chart 2 What's the prize for the wooden spoon? |
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 663 Location: Quantocks, West Somerset, 90masl
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Originally Posted by: GezM What's the prize for the wooden spoon? A spoon...... Made of wood.🤣 |
Currently living at about 80m asl just off the Quantocks in Somerset. Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,671
Location: Alton, Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: scillydave A spoon...... Made of wood.🤣 
Now that's just silly, Dave |
Dave
Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,233 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 5.9c Anomaly 1.0c provisional to 23rd Metcheck 5.70c Anomaly 0.70c Netweather 6.16c Anomaly 1.07c Peasedown St John 6.17c Anomaly 1.3c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 35,520
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st. Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C. Chart 1 Chart 2 Thanks GW. Another very mild December. Amazing to think it's 11 years since we had a cold December (though what a December it was)  Merry Christmas my friend. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,216
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st. Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C. Chart 1 Chart 2 Ooh. 6.5c would be spot on for me, probably for the first time EVER. |
Witney, Oxfordshire 100m ASL |
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