Spring Sun Winter Dread
Friday, December 3, 2021 11:01:53 AM
The models are so all over the place that I can't even work out which way that means you've gone !

Latest MetO forecast in my area looks like maxes of 5-8c for the next week or so , so brutally average if anything

Saint Snow
Friday, December 3, 2021 11:54:11 AM

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

The models are so all over the place that I can't even work out which way that means you've gone !
Latest MetO forecast in my area looks like maxes of 5-8c for the next week or so , so brutally average if anything

 

 

I've gone a little below.

My first instinct was to go somewhere around 5c, but I felt you'd be somewhere around this figure so went for the 'all or nothing' punt.

If I'd gone 5.5c/5.6c, I'd currently be feeling pretty confident!

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Frank H
Friday, December 3, 2021 12:50:39 PM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

 

I've gone a little below.

My first instinct was to go somewhere around 5c, but I felt you'd be somewhere around this figure so went for the 'all or nothing' punt.

If I'd gone 5.5c/5.6c, I'd currently be feeling pretty confident!

 

 

I'm just over a degree off the lead in 4th place and expected SSWD to go around or a bit above average and that Saint would try to avoid him; but not knowing whether it would be higher or lower.

Went for a low punt, hopefully enough to avoid you both without being too unrealistic.

There's also Bolty close by in third place to consider.

Bolty
Friday, December 3, 2021 1:14:08 PM

Originally Posted by: Frank H 

 

I'm just over a degree off the lead in 4th place and expected SSWD to go around or a bit above average and that Saint would try to avoid him; but not knowing whether it would be higher or lower.

Went for a low punt, hopefully enough to avoid you both without being too unrealistic.

There's also Bolty close by in third place to consider.

I went for 4.5 in this. Near-average but with the chance of a few cold bursts keeping the CET down a bit. It could easily go belly up for me though at this stage though, especially if I've overestimated any cold snaps.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

ARTzeman
Friday, December 3, 2021 1:27:46 PM

Met Office Hadley       5.4c      Anomaly      0.4c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                    3.90c    Anomaly      -1.90c

Netweather                 4.46c    Anomaly      -0.65c 

Peasedown St John   4.6c    Anomaly     -0.3c.          




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
Friday, December 3, 2021 2:01:11 PM

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

 

I went for 4.5 in this. Near-average but with the chance of a few cold bursts keeping the CET down a bit. It could easily go belly up for me though at this stage though, especially if I've overestimated any cold snaps.

 

Right, well I know you can't catch me up because I've done exactly the same 

 

If Frank H has gone a lot lower, I genuinely hope he wins the entire thing by being spot on 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Frank H
Friday, December 3, 2021 2:47:35 PM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

Right, well I know you can't catch me up because I've done exactly the same 

 

If Frank H has gone a lot lower, I genuinely hope he wins the entire thing by being spot on 

I went for 3.33c so would need it to be below about 3.55 to finish ahead of you if you went for 4.50.

There's still a small chance for others to be involved but we really need to see GW's table first.

rickm
Friday, December 3, 2021 3:39:33 PM

I'm pretty sure I'm not close enough despite a good November (7.35) so have gone out on a mild limb as it's always possible if the high sits over europe and feeds in a long fetch SW - unlikely but I've gone for 7.25.

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Friday, December 3, 2021 5:08:29 PM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

I had a hunch you'd go around average and, given the bouncing around of the models, I had to flip a coin. 

Current output strongly suggests I've gone the wrong way!

Which average though? There are 3 mentioned. Could make the difference between SSWD being catchable by Saint or not.

Currently I think that the month could still go mild, average or cool. I don't think anything extreme is likely either way for the monthly CET as a whole, but of course it's very early days and there is still potential for hair dryer or beast 

 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

western100
Friday, December 3, 2021 5:34:55 PM

Things looking average to cool next week or so. For those who like colder winters and below average months then its a better start to winter than recent times. 

December CET prediction of 5 would be a good bet based on model output IMO of course.

2021 looks like it might scrape under 91-20 average 

YTD

61-90 +0.68

81-10 +0.28

91-20 -0.09

It would need something very cold in Dec for 2021 to get under the 81-20 year average. Outlook does not support a severely cold month. Average to slightly below more likely. 

61-90 .......i think we can kiss goodbye those averages for a few hundred years when global climate is probably nothing like it is now. I will not be arouind then but maybe a turtle might be still around then to let everyone know if 61-90 is useful. 

 

 

 


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

Twitter…..@Weather4u2

Bolty
Friday, December 3, 2021 5:37:36 PM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

Right, well I know you can't catch me up because I've done exactly the same 

 

If Frank H has gone a lot lower, I genuinely hope he wins the entire thing by being spot on 

There's always next year!


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Friday, December 3, 2021 11:33:04 PM
So this year either

We finally get a cold December after an 11 year wait since the extreme cold overdose of 2010 or

I get to win the competition

Either is good for me... a cold December is a festive December

springsunshine
Saturday, December 4, 2021 8:31:57 AM

Originally Posted by: western100 

 

61-90 .......i think we can kiss goodbye those averages for a few hundred years when global climate is probably nothing like then.

 

 

 

 

Does anyone know if Hadley are going to update the 61-90 benmark it uses to calculate averages?? As you say that period bears no reflection on the modern climate and general significant warming trend of the past 30 years. We may never see a sub 10c year again in the CET.

Also it would be good if the 91-20 period could be used as the benchmark in this CET competition as from Jan 2022 as basically every single month,barring the odd exceoption is above the 61-90 averages.

The Hadley CET benchmark is way out of date now.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, December 4, 2021 9:14:59 AM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

Right, well I know you can't catch me up because I've done exactly the same 

 

If Frank H has gone a lot lower, I genuinely hope he wins the entire thing by being spot on 

That’s very magnanimous of you!  Oh wait!  You’re a snow lover!  

It looks like we have a very exciting finish this year!  Good luck to you all.  May the coldest win.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Saturday, December 4, 2021 9:51:46 AM
I think the example of 2010 proves that even in a globally warm world it is still easily possible to have a local cold year.

For that reason I don't think we've seen our last sub 10c year on the CET nor our last cold and snowy winter.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, December 4, 2021 11:21:40 AM

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

I think the example of 2010 proves that even in a globally warm world it is still easily possible to have a local cold year.
For that reason I don't think we've seen our last sub 10c year on the CET nor our last cold and snowy winter.

I agree, it’s certainly possible!  Before 2010 we were saying it would never happen.  Yet that was one of the coldest and snowiest I’ve experienced here and I remember winters back as far as the early sixties.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

ARTzeman
Saturday, December 4, 2021 11:41:04 AM

Met Office Hadley          5.1c       Anomaly       0.1c provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                       4.30c     Anomaly       -0.70c

Netweather                    4.86c     Anomaly       -0.25c

Peasedown St John     5.23c      Anomaly       0.38c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Bolty
Saturday, December 4, 2021 9:22:39 PM

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

So this year either
We finally get a cold December after an 11 year wait since the extreme cold overdose of 2010 or
I get to win the competition

Either is good for me... a cold December is a festive December

If I remember correctly, we very nearly had a cold December in 2017. It was a very mild run in the days up to and over the Christmas period that stopped it from having a below-average anomaly. There was about a two-week period from the 8th-21st that was cold and there was also a few cold days in the lead up to the New Year.

Edit: and that big snowstorm across the southern half of the country on the 10th.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Sunday, December 5, 2021 10:59:29 AM
Yes IMBY I remember being surprisingly well catered for... shall we say... by the snowstorm of the 10th in 2017. It wasn't much hyped either IIRC.

Dec 2017 was all set up to be cold with the first half being well below average but mild zonality had set in by Xmas leaving the month as a whole close to normal.

Dec 2012 followed a similar CET pattern with a cold first half and mild second half(although with a load more rain, and frustratingly many times when it just wasn't q cold enough for snow, in my area anyway).

ARTzeman
Sunday, December 5, 2021 11:12:27 AM

Met Office Hadley       5.2c     Anomaly      0.1c provisional to 4th

Metcheck                    4.40c   Anomaly      -0.59c

Netweather                 5.02c   Anomaly      -0.08c

Peasedoawn St John    5.15c  Anomaly    0.25c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Users browsing this topic