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Offline Saint Snow  
#61 Posted : 18 November 2021 13:15:13(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Re: the current output...

Whilst I'd love a really prolonged period of overall cold to last from late November well into the second half of winter, that's hugely unlikely. Even the amazing 2010 spell only managed to last until late December (not even that in some more southern areas). I've seen a few winters with a sprinkle of early promise dissolve into a mild and wet borefest.

I'm hoping (not that this makes any difference) that this late Nov chilly spell is just a scene-setter. We've had plenty of periods over the past couple of decades where the weather has 'got stuck in a rut', or a recurring general pattern. Not usually that favourable, but it's a theme - and something mentioned by climate experts as likely to be more common with climate change. A winter of recurring blocks to our NW/N would be very welcome.

 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Stormchaser  
#62 Posted : 19 November 2021 15:43:56(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Mid-November has turned out more interesting than I was anticipating, but not in terms of the immediate weather, rather the bigger picture.

Long story short, I've been noticing some sacrificing of the potential depth and persistence of cold weather across the UK in the final third of November, in exchange for increased potential in Dec generally, via raised likelihood of blocking patterns that also have more potential to disrupt the polar vortex.

Notably, blocking highs across the Urals have begun to appear in some model projections for late Nov / early Dec. This has been majorly missed in the past fortnight, as it's a key instigator of stratospheric warming events.

During a La Nina December, an inherent tendency for high pressure to locate west of the UK means that only a weakened polar vortex is required to open the door for some notable -NAO episodes; we don't need a SSW to do the trick.


Uncertainty is still considerable, mind. Especially with the La Nina having changed shape a little in the past week, the largest cold anomalies now being focused in the eastern rather than central Pacific. This takes it away from the 'classic' La Nina configuration and reduces support for a -NAO in Dec while considerably increasing it in Jan-Feb.

That could prove a major wildcard for this winter, if the largest cold anomalies remain in the east Pacific. Also uncertain... the joys of long-range forecasting!

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Offline Gandalf The White  
#63 Posted : 19 November 2021 17:00:19(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Mid-November has turned out more interesting than I was anticipating, but not in terms of the immediate weather, rather the bigger picture.

Long story short, I've been noticing some sacrificing of the potential depth and persistence of cold weather across the UK in the final third of November, in exchange for increased potential in Dec generally, via raised likelihood of blocking patterns that also have more potential to disrupt the polar vortex.

Notably, blocking highs across the Urals have begun to appear in some model projections for late Nov / early Dec. This has been majorly missed in the past fortnight, as it's a key instigator of stratospheric warming events.

During a La Nina December, an inherent tendency for high pressure to locate west of the UK means that only a weakened polar vortex is required to open the door for some notable -NAO episodes; we don't need a SSW to do the trick.


Uncertainty is still considerable, mind. Especially with the La Nina having changed shape a little in the past week, the largest cold anomalies now being focused in the eastern rather than central Pacific. This takes it away from the 'classic' La Nina configuration and reduces support for a -NAO in Dec while considerably increasing it in Jan-Feb.

That could prove a major wildcard for this winter, if the largest cold anomalies remain in the east Pacific. Also uncertain... the joys of long-range forecasting!

Fascinating stuff, SC, thank you. I hadn’t appreciated the subtleties within a La Niña pattern; always assumed it just favoured a colder start to winter and milder later.

I would quite happily trade a cold spell at the start of winter for something more durable in January and February.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

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Offline Gavin P  
#64 Posted : 19 November 2021 19:23:17(UTC)
Gavin P

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United Kingdom

Part Two of the eleventh winter 2021/22 update on Monday was an ENSO/La Nina special 

 

 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Offline springsunshine  
#65 Posted : 19 November 2021 20:30:42(UTC)
springsunshine

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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Part Two of the eleventh winter 2021/22 update on Monday was an ENSO/La Nina special 

 

 

πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘ Top man Gavin P

Offline Gavin P  
#66 Posted : 20 November 2021 17:49:00(UTC)
Gavin P

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Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

 

πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘ Top man Gavin P

Thanks so much my friend. Was an interesting video! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Online Essan  
#67 Posted : 21 November 2021 07:59:01(UTC)
Essan

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Antarctica
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Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline polarwind  
#68 Posted : 25 November 2021 10:59:35(UTC)
polarwind

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Location: Derby

Over the last few weeks there has been an obvious tendency for the synoptics to resemble the synoptics often seen in the 60's,70's and early 80's.

The MeteoGroup in its winter forecast for November onwards sees 'a weak polar vortex' leading to a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’. The Met Office concentrates on climate change influencing the outcome and bets on a '60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February'.

The last few weeks has seen weather indicators which favour the MeteoGroup's outlook.

We have seen -    

                              synoptics suggesting a weaker polar vortex  

                              high Pressure building in the North Atlantic without the ridge into Europe leading to more NW'ly winds

                               ............rather than SW'ly

                              the rapid growth of Arctic Ice cover after a very warm October along the Russian Arctic coastline

                              record snowfallsand temps? in China.

                              record low temperatures in Siberia

                              and......

                              Record Snowfall reported today 25th Nov. in Hokkaido, Japan

                              and.....

Place you bets!

                              

                              

 

 

Edited by user 25 November 2021 14:21:09(UTC)  | Reason: + Record Snowfall reported today 25th Nov. in Hokkaido, Japan

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

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Dave,Derby

Offline Saint Snow  
#69 Posted : 25 November 2021 11:09:15(UTC)
Saint Snow

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My money would be on a changeable winter, with any cold spells being brief (under a week)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline polarwind  
#70 Posted : 25 November 2021 14:24:00(UTC)
polarwind

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

My money would be on a changeable winter, with any cold spells being brief (under a week)

I think presently I'd have a £10 bet each way.wink

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Offline Roger Parsons  
#71 Posted : 25 November 2021 14:32:13(UTC)
Roger Parsons

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Location: Lincolnshire

Originally Posted by: polarwind Go to Quoted Post

I think presently I'd have a £10 bet each way.wink

 

...and you could well be right, Saint!

It's a sign of the times that we get so aerated about the possibility of a snowy late November day!

R

Edited by user 25 November 2021 15:10:14(UTC)  | Reason: edit

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#72 Posted : 05 December 2021 14:46:16(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Posts: 25,718
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Following all of this closely - I think we'll have to wait til January for a good cold spell.

 

This December is showing signs of being colder than what we've had for some time - But don't get carried away.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline ARTzeman  
#73 Posted : 08 December 2021 22:36:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

The last week of the month may make a change.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Deep Powder  
#74 Posted : 11 December 2021 11:57:05(UTC)
Deep Powder

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Posts: 1,453
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

On a winter note, but continental, my brother who lives in Chamonix is reporting great snow for early December, after a really good run of snowy days over the past week or so. Shame it looks like the freezing level will rise a bit too much next week; hopefully a good base for the season is in place.
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Roger Parsons  
#75 Posted : 24 December 2021 15:43:23(UTC)
Roger Parsons

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Apologies - I've seen this mentioned somewhere, but can't locate the thread. Mods - please feel free to relocate this.

We've just watched Chris Packham's Winterwatch showing of a classic documentary from the BBC's archive, which takes a look at the worst winter of the 20th century in 1963. It was 60 minutes well spent - strongly recommended if you have not seen it.

1963 - The Big Freeze
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01q9d86/winterwatch-1963-the-big-freeze

 


Roger

Edited by user 24 December 2021 15:45:40(UTC)  | Reason: + Bold

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Offline Snowjoke  
#76 Posted : 27 December 2021 10:33:41(UTC)
Snowjoke

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Joined: 15/01/2008(UTC)
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France
Location: Chamberet,Correze, Millevaches Parc Naturel Regional, Limousin, Massif Central

1962-63....now that was incredible..will we ever see the like again? 2010 was about the closest we have got in recent decades and that was nowhere near the impact of the Big Freeze. Mindblowing black and white film footage of that simply unthinkable winter. Well worth watching if you missed it!

Was chatting with my Mum via Skype yesterday and she was born in 1940. She clearly remembers 1963 but also the winter of 1947. They were so far removed from modern British winters that it's not even funny!!

Offline springsunshine  
#77 Posted : 27 December 2021 17:28:05(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,820
Location: Bournemouth

The winter of 1962/63 was the coldest winter since 1740 and is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon! 2010 was just one month.The winters of the mid 1980's were the coldest in recent times.

Sure we will get cold spells but prolonged cold lasting most of the winter will be almost impossible in the uk due to the increasing background warming and different weather patterns than before 1990.With the recent dramatic flip in the models we could see this winter being one of the mildest on record.

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#78 Posted : 27 December 2021 17:47:29(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

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Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

Actually I think 2010 possibly also refers to the winter of 2009-10 as well as the Dec 2010 you are perhaps thinking of ?

That winter was the coldest since 1978-79 for the CET and it beat all the 1980s winters by being consistently cold for 3 months with Dec, Jan and Feb all well below average.

A repeat surely is still possible with the right synoptics

Offline Saint Snow  
#79 Posted : 17 January 2022 13:55:48(UTC)
Saint Snow

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I've given up on this winter now.

Not saying 'winter is over' and there may well be some snow to come, but all enthusiasm has drained from me.

I still say, also, that snow and cold in the lead up to and over Xmas is the nirvana.

But I'd also love to experience a real snow-mageddon event, with at least 30cm of snow over the whole country, which would be totally paralysed for several days.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Gooner  
#80 Posted : 23 January 2022 18:37:18(UTC)
Gooner

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Man

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

I've given up on this winter now.

Not saying 'winter is over' and there may well be some snow to come, but all enthusiasm has drained from me.

I still say, also, that snow and cold in the lead up to and over Xmas is the nirvana.

But I'd also love to experience a real snow-mageddon event, with at least 30cm of snow over the whole country, which would be totally paralysed for several days.

My thoughts exactly but sadly not this time around 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

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