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Offline Gusty  
#41 Posted : 04 November 2021 10:18:42(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,272
Man
Location: Folkestone

Gone are the days where I start frantically looking for cold charts to appear in early November when the clocks go back. There have been many years recently where the cold simply isn't cold enough to get to the surface (certainly down here) until after mid January. Thereafter we have a 6 week window of opportunity until around 7th March before the strength of the sun overcomes the thermal lag that takes winter potential into March.

I'm studying Scandinavia this Autumn watching the advance of winter. Its a slow process currently ebbing and flowing in the far north at present, occasionally reaching as far south central Finland and northern Sweden. Currently its devoid of any proper cold air with all stations above 0c (32f) apart from places at altitude in Northern Norway.

 

Edited by user 04 November 2021 10:22:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline springsunshine  
#42 Posted : 04 November 2021 10:41:18(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,820
Location: Bournemouth



I think the strat will be key...

Isn`t it always. Almost all noteable cold spells in the uk follow an SSW event.

Offline springsunshine  
#43 Posted : 04 November 2021 10:49:50(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,820
Location: Bournemouth

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Gone are the days where I start frantically looking for cold charts to appear in early November when the clocks go back. There have been many years recently where the cold simply isn't cold enough to get to the surface (certainly down here) until after mid January. Thereafter we have a 6 week window of opportunity until around 7th March before the strength of the sun overcomes the thermal lag that takes winter potential into March.

I'm studying Scandinavia this Autumn watching the advance of winter. Its a slow process currently ebbing and flowing in the far north at present, occasionally reaching as far south central Finland and northern Sweden. Currently its devoid of any proper cold air with all stations above 0c (32f) apart from places at altitude in Northern Norway.

 

Scandanavia is very interesting this year. I noticed autumn set in toward the end of august and in the last week much of scandi was under the 0c isotherm. I note the extensive snow cover over northern scandinavia which also arrived early this year and a big increase compared to recent years.The long range models indicate that scandinavia may very well have a very cold winter.

Talking of long range models has anyone else watched Gavin p`s 1st Christmas Forecast/update?

Looks like a BBQ xmas!

Offline ozone_aurora  
#44 Posted : 05 November 2021 11:20:05(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,358
Location: Sheffield

Be interested to see what past years had unusually early cold spells over Scandinavia and what winters have generally been like over the UK (although I suspect some of the past winters have been mild, but others were cold).

Edited by user 05 November 2021 11:22:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Online Essan  
#45 Posted : 05 November 2021 11:49:52(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 32,755
Antarctica
Location: Albion

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

Scandanavia is very interesting this year. I noticed autumn set in toward the end of august and in the last week much of scandi was under the 0c isotherm. I note the extensive snow cover over northern scandinavia which also arrived early this year and a big increase compared to recent years.The long range models indicate that scandinavia may very well have a very cold winter.

Talking of long range models has anyone else watched Gavin p`s 1st Christmas Forecast/update?

Looks like a BBQ xmas!

 

Conversely, in Siberia .....

Snow on strike in the world’s coldest region, as temperatures in Siberia go 4 to 12C above the norm

whilst

Tundra is ablaze in Magadan region in out-of-season wildfire, complicated by wind and zero snow

 

So if we get a really potent Beast from the East, it could very well be a BBQ Christmas!

 

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline Gavin D  
#46 Posted : 05 November 2021 12:06:42(UTC)
Gavin D

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United Kingdom

Online Brian Gaze  
#47 Posted : 05 November 2021 12:31:30(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 60,666

Snow cover in Rovaniemi  has been very transient so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline richardabdn  
#48 Posted : 06 November 2021 08:40:09(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,213
Location: Aberdeen

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

Winter hasn't started at all in most recent years and all this horror autumn suggests is that this coming season will be even more of a disaster than has been typical in the post-2013 era of relentless bland nothingness. 

Wouldn't be surprised if it is so bad that there isn't even an air frost this side of Christmas and if I could put a bet on this winter seeing less frost and snow overall than the April just gone I would. 

March has been an even worse month than the winter months recently with only 2016 and 2018 seeing lying snow in the past 8 years. November hasn't had snow since 2017.

Shocking time to be a weather enthusiast 

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

The Unprecedented Snow Drought Ended on 9th February 2021 after 2889 days without a 10cm snow depth

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#49 Posted : 06 November 2021 15:57:24(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,718
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Still too early to tell as Sun Yat Sen once declared.

I have my own gut feeling which I won't put here.

Lets see how the rest of November pans out.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline Whether Idle  
#50 Posted : 06 November 2021 16:28:14(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,188
Man
Location: Dover

The sun has the same strength today as February 5th. So technically game on AFAIAC. Having said that a cold shot in November usually favours locations north of the M4 and with 150m + altitude and a few miles from windward coasts.  

Edit - the tweet from Hugo makes a bit more confident we will see at least one cold spell. ๐Ÿ˜‚

Edited by user 06 November 2021 16:32:26(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline Chunky Pea  
#51 Posted : 06 November 2021 17:38:35(UTC)
Chunky Pea

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2013(UTC)
Posts: 17,998
Man
Ireland
Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl

Originally Posted by: richardabdn Go to Quoted Post

 

Winter hasn't started at all in most recent years and all this horror autumn suggests is that this coming season will be even more of a disaster than has been typical in the post-2013 era of relentless bland nothingness. 

Wouldn't be surprised if it is so bad that there isn't even an air frost this side of Christmas and if I could put a bet on this winter seeing less frost and snow overall than the April just gone I would. 

March has been an even worse month than the winter months recently with only 2016 and 2018 seeing lying snow in the past 8 years. November hasn't had snow since 2017.

Shocking time to be a weather enthusiast 

The weather in these lands is far more interesting when the AMO is in its negative state. 

Ireland 2022 Monthly Average/D.F. 81-10.

April: 8.8c / +0.5c

May: 12.3c / +1.4c

Year (up to June 11th) 8.8c / +1.0c

Offline Stormchaser  
#52 Posted : 06 November 2021 20:43:55(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,067
Man
Location: West Hants

Broadly, I'm seeing good potential for some negative NAO days in December (perhaps late Nov too) with associated cold UK weather possibilities, after which time it will come down to how much the polar vortex is interfered with or able to flex its muscles.

Whether a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurs is of little consequence until late Dec, IMO. Rarely is the polar vortex coupled enough with the tropospheric circulation before then for it to drive a persistently zonal regime otherwise.

Recent years have seen many incursions from the north or northwest in Dec. Trouble is, as others has noted, the air from those directions, in early winter, doesn't tend to be cold enough these days for widespread settling snow at low levels.

This year, the La Nina and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) combination should encourage some more pronounced northerlies in terms of fetch and duration. Whether that will be enough to overcome the handicap of climate warming, from the perspective of those seeking snow cover at low elevations, we can only wait and see!

By Feb it could become very mild if the polar vortex is strong.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

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2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Gandalf The White  
#53 Posted : 06 November 2021 20:51:26(UTC)
Gandalf The White

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,368
Man

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

The sun has the same strength today as February 5th. So technically game on AFAIAC. Having said that a cold shot in November usually favours locations north of the M4 and with 150m + altitude and a few miles from windward coasts.  

Edit - the tweet from Hugo makes a bit more confident we will see at least one cold spell. ๐Ÿ˜‚

The sun isn’t the driving factor though, is it?  It’s the thermal lag caused by our proximity to a huge ocean with a warm current flowing in our direction; an ocean that happens to be upstream of winds from any direction save NE to SE.

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Offline Whether Idle  
#54 Posted : 07 November 2021 00:11:21(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,188
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

 

The sun isn’t the driving factor though, is it?  It’s the thermal lag caused by our proximity to a huge ocean with a warm current flowing in our direction; an ocean that happens to be upstream of winds from any direction save NE to SE.

 

Im well aware of thermal lag. Hence my comments regarding caveats. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Online Brian Gaze  
#55 Posted : 07 November 2021 14:55:35(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 60,666

I've just moved a number of off topic posts to a dedicated thread in the FA here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22524

As a general message to members and non-members alike (who may be thinking of registering) I will be closing down new forum registrations on November 30th and not reopening them until March. Therefore:

1) If your account is deleted or banned there is no route back

2) If you are a non-member who is thinking of registering then submit your request before the start of December using the link below. I will only consider your application if you use your real name and a corresponding email address.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twofeedback.aspx

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline tallyho_83  
#56 Posted : 10 November 2021 00:04:28(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 11,496
Location: Devon

For your info -the latest on the Siberian Snow Cover: 

Most of Scandinavia covered except the far south- Gothenburg and Stockholm of course! Probably because I'll be going there!? 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)

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Offline fairweather  
#57 Posted : 13 November 2021 13:04:35(UTC)
fairweather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,670
Location: S.Essex

Currently you would have to go about 300 miles north or west of Moscow to find sub-zero temperatures. But by the end of next week it looks like temperatures there will be down to -7C and there will be snow cover as far down as Belarus. Helsinki should get its first taste of winter although Southern Sweden still snow free.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Offline DPower  
#58 Posted : 13 November 2021 16:19:41(UTC)
DPower

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Joined: 01/01/2019(UTC)
Posts: 341

I think it is becoming increasingly obvious that without the intervention of a SSW ( seems to be the case every winter now) there will be little for the snow geese to look forward to. The odd fleeting northerly toppler lasting a couple of days if we are lucky. Mid latitude highs to the south of the UK and Euro highs really do seem to have curtailed the chances of cold synoptics establishing themselves over the UK and now we are becoming more and more dependent on the strat to help mitigate their effects.

A ongoing strong Kelvin wave in the pacific will do us no favours either over the next few weeks.

Offline Deep Powder  
#59 Posted : 14 November 2021 13:23:12(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,453
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Pre-winter time again! Seems to come round quicker and quicker each year, as I get older.

Just read Brianโ€™s most recent winter update, very interesting.

Some saying negative NAO days in December, this would be good, especially if it could lead to a cold setup.

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Martybhoy  
#60 Posted : 15 November 2021 10:04:16(UTC)
Martybhoy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 09/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 60

Winter's coming home! This is our year.
200m above sea level

Rural East Ayrshire

Near to the village of Sorn

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