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Offline scillydave  
#21 Posted : 02 November 2021 16:08:28(UTC)
scillydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 663
Man
Location: Quantocks, West Somerset, 90masl

Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁

I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me.

I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff!

We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time.

So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade.

Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone!

Currently living at about 80m asl just off the Quantocks in Somerset.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Offline moomin75  
#22 Posted : 02 November 2021 19:04:46(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,218

Well from Mr Captain of Doom, Moomin, AKA Gloomin, I have a sneaky feeling that this winter is going to deliver. Call it gut feeling, or a feeling in my bones, but the atmosphere just looks more akin to supporting interesting synoptic this winter.
If it does go pear shaped, you have my word I will not be whingeing and whining, but I do think we will see some notable cold this coming winter.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Notty  
#23 Posted : 02 November 2021 20:15:50(UTC)
Notty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 482
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

Originally Posted by: scillydave Go to Quoted Post
Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁
I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me.
I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff!
We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time.

So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade.

Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone!

 

Hear Hear

My bones are telling me that this year is different :)

We have had a couple of topsy turvy years as far as the seasons go and I didn’t see ANY snow last winter.

The Atlantic is quiet, the trees are rammed full with berries so I’m looking forward to an entertaining chase to take my mind of the dark winter nights.

Roll on the Stella Pub Runs :)

Notty

Pontypool, 132m asl

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#24 Posted : 03 November 2021 14:58:26(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Location: South Cambridgeshire

As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Online Essan  
#25 Posted : 03 November 2021 15:41:45(UTC)
Essan

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 32,853
Antarctica
Location: Albion

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

We had none in Nov 2010! But I'd take that spell again in a heartbeat. 

To be honest, the holy grail for me is a cold & snowy spell in the lead up to, and over Xmas. We got that in both 2009 & 2010 (just made it past Xmas Day on both occasions, the thaw winning on 27th and 28th Dec respectively). Was pretty deep snow both times, too. If I get that, I'm fine with the rest of the winter not being up to much



Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....  

But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day     Preferably just lasting through till New year.   Don't need any other snow if that happens.   But it won't .....

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Online Brian Gaze  
#26 Posted : 03 November 2021 16:26:32(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

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Posts: 61,360

Originally Posted by: Essan Go to Quoted Post



Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....  

But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day     Preferably just lasting through till New year.   Don't need any other snow if that happens.   But it won't .....

Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Online Essan  
#27 Posted : 03 November 2021 18:57:55(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 32,853
Antarctica
Location: Albion

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.



No, we had nothing here in Dec 2009 - no snow on the ground that winter until January .... (when we did get plenty)  whereas December 2010 was snowmaggedon

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/01/2nd-january-2010-todays-news-britain.html 

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/12/20th-december-todays-news-record-low.html 




Edited by user 03 November 2021 19:01:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline Whether Idle  
#28 Posted : 03 November 2021 18:58:07(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: westv Go to Quoted Post

Whatever happens it will be on a knife edge and more runs will, I'm sure, be needed. 

An excellent contribution.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline westv  
#29 Posted : 03 November 2021 18:58:45(UTC)
westv

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Posts: 18,552
Location: Kingston upon Hull

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.

February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?

 

laughinglaughing

At least it will be mild!
Offline Whether Idle  
#30 Posted : 03 November 2021 19:00:42(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: westv Go to Quoted Post

 

February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?

 

laughinglaughing

Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline doctormog  
#31 Posted : 03 November 2021 19:04:28(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 74,881

Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.
Online Essan  
#32 Posted : 03 November 2021 19:05:05(UTC)
Essan

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 32,853
Antarctica
Location: Albion

As I recall, most years, Winter Is Over, occurs every year in early December     If the models do not predict 20 days of snowfall in London by the middle of December, that's it 

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline Whether Idle  
#33 Posted : 03 November 2021 19:09:44(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline doctormog  
#34 Posted : 03 November 2021 19:40:18(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 74,881

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 

Oi, there’s no rooms for pesky things like facts in here. 

Offline Gandalf The White  
#35 Posted : 03 November 2021 20:14:06(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?

But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Offline doctormog  
#36 Posted : 03 November 2021 20:18:16(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 74,881

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

 

I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?

But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.

Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).

Offline Gandalf The White  
#37 Posted : 03 November 2021 21:59:33(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).

It reminds me of this set of cartoons about the weather in Seattle…

 

Source: https://theoatmeal.com/blog/seattle_weather

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Offline Saint Snow  
#38 Posted : 03 November 2021 22:49:47(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.

 

You're talking out of your hoop. 

The White flag does not get raised around that time. 

Mid-January is when focus shifts to talking about 1947.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline BJBlake  
#39 Posted : 03 November 2021 23:51:21(UTC)
BJBlake

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Joined: 17/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 469
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United Kingdom
Location: South west Norfolk 28m ASL

Anyway - back to the thread: Yes - my bones are aching with pending cold too...With a westerly QBO, a weakfish La Niña, the first winter after the Maunder Minimum, signs of an amplified jet, possible negative NAO, the chances of cold incursions and a locked in blocking pattern emerging are never going to be higher: Yes - if it can happen - it should happen this year. Fingers, legs and eyes crossed... I’m going for a rear-guard (in the face of pending warming in excess of 1.5 degrees ref climate change) rip-roarer of a winter, to send Truimpites for their denial scripts. 

I’ll be happy just to see unsalted and hard pack snow on my lane - like those days of old, unmelted for days...and memorable forecasts of sub 492 DAM air heading over the North Sea towards us, towering snow clouds, like Jan 1987, amid a McKasgillesk narrative of snow on snow - a la 1991...bring it on.

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Offline Robertski  
#40 Posted : 04 November 2021 08:18:03(UTC)
Robertski

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/06/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,992
Location: Nottinghamshire

Where as I am thinking we need the strat to work for us as a La Nina will probably put us on the wrong side of the jet, with a possible slug shaped high pressure in the mid Atlantic effecting us.

So for me looks milder, but maybe with some colder spells as the jet buckles, hope Im talking rubbish and im wrong.

I think the strat warming will be key...

Edited by user 08 November 2021 21:30:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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