Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 663  Location: Quantocks, West Somerset, 90masl
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Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁 I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me. I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff! We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time. So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade. Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone! |
Currently living at about 80m asl just off the Quantocks in Somerset. Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,218
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Well from Mr Captain of Doom, Moomin, AKA Gloomin, I have a sneaky feeling that this winter is going to deliver. Call it gut feeling, or a feeling in my bones, but the atmosphere just looks more akin to supporting interesting synoptic this winter.
If it does go pear shaped, you have my word I will not be whingeing and whining, but I do think we will see some notable cold this coming winter. |
Witney, Oxfordshire 100m ASL |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 482  Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
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Originally Posted by: scillydave  Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁
I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me.
I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff!
We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time.
So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade.
Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone!
Hear Hear My bones are telling me that this year is different :) We have had a couple of topsy turvy years as far as the seasons go and I didn’t see ANY snow last winter. The Atlantic is quiet, the trees are rammed full with berries so I’m looking forward to an entertaining chase to take my mind of the dark winter nights. Roll on the Stella Pub Runs :) |
Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,837
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 32,853  Location: Albion
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow We had none in Nov 2010! But I'd take that spell again in a heartbeat. To be honest, the holy grail for me is a cold & snowy spell in the lead up to, and over Xmas. We got that in both 2009 & 2010 (just made it past Xmas Day on both occasions, the thaw winning on 27th and 28th Dec respectively). Was pretty deep snow both times, too. If I get that, I'm fine with the rest of the winter not being up to much Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 .... But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day  Preferably just lasting through till New year. Don't need any other snow if that happens. But it won't .....  |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 61,360
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Originally Posted by: Essan
Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....
But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day Preferably just lasting through till New year. Don't need any other snow if that happens. But it won't .....
Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 32,853 Location: Albion
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,192 Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: westv Whatever happens it will be on a knife edge and more runs will, I'm sure, be needed.  An excellent contribution. |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,552
Location: Kingston upon Hull
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.
February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January? 
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At least it will be mild! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,192 Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: westv February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?
Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th. Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully. |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74,881
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Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 32,853 Location: Albion
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As I recall, most years, Winter Is Over, occurs every year in early December If the models do not predict 20 days of snowfall in London by the middle of December, that's it  |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,192 Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March. WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd   |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74,881
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd Oi, there’s no rooms for pesky things like facts in here. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 51,844
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March. I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen? But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.
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Location: South Cambridgeshire 130 metres ASL 52.0N 0.1E
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74,881
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen? But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.
Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works  ). |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 51,844
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Location: South Cambridgeshire 130 metres ASL 52.0N 0.1E
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,467 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th. Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully. You're talking out of your hoop. The White flag does not get raised around that time. Mid-January is when focus shifts to talking about 1947.
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Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/11/2009(UTC) Posts: 469 Location: South west Norfolk 28m ASL
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Anyway - back to the thread: Yes - my bones are aching with pending cold too...With a westerly QBO, a weakfish La Niña, the first winter after the Maunder Minimum, signs of an amplified jet, possible negative NAO, the chances of cold incursions and a locked in blocking pattern emerging are never going to be higher: Yes - if it can happen - it should happen this year. Fingers, legs and eyes crossed... I’m going for a rear-guard (in the face of pending warming in excess of 1.5 degrees ref climate change) rip-roarer of a winter, to send Truimpites for their denial scripts. I’ll be happy just to see unsalted and hard pack snow on my lane - like those days of old, unmelted for days...and memorable forecasts of sub 492 DAM air heading over the North Sea towards us, towering snow clouds, like Jan 1987, amid a McKasgillesk narrative of snow on snow - a la 1991...bring it on. |
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/06/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,992
Location: Nottinghamshire
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Where as I am thinking we need the strat to work for us as a La Nina will probably put us on the wrong side of the jet, with a possible slug shaped high pressure in the mid Atlantic effecting us.
So for me looks milder, but maybe with some colder spells as the jet buckles, hope Im talking rubbish and im wrong.
I think the strat warming will be key... Edited by user 08 November 2021 21:30:38(UTC)
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