">https://twitter.com/Fludded/status/1454438047043530752?s=20

It didn't say that...

I'm sure that there have been a range of forecasts over the last 15 years or so, but generally the outlook was grim for Arctic Ice extent - certainly worse than we've presently got.

Well, clearly not the BBC, as the tweet makes very clear. Plus, it was one prediction; I assume that you wouldn’t pick one outlier ensemble run and then rubbish weather forecasting if it was wrong? Or perhaps you would? 

Absolutely not, and I don’t think you should either. But media corporations have a responsibility on where they source their material before publishing. It’s their decision after all. 

On the face of it, the Arctic ice is now looking quite healthy with the whole basin now filled in. But this conceals that a lot of it, notably in in the Siberian Sea, is thin and impermanent first year ice https://usicecenter.gov/Products 

On the face of it, the Arctic ice is now looking quite healthy with the whole basin now filled in. But this conceals that a lot of it, notably in in the Siberian Sea, is thin and impermanent first year ice https://usicecenter.gov/Products 

Interesting stuff.

*See -

Anomalous Advection From Sub-Arctic Seas

On the face of it, the Arctic ice is now looking quite healthy with the whole basin now filled in. But this conceals that a lot of it, notably in in the Siberian Sea, is thin and impermanent first year ice https://usicecenter.gov/Products 

yeh on the ace of it, it looks like job done.  But this is a critical first step of a thousand to retain the ice and have an impact on climate.  We know this probably will be reversed by the summer based on other years of similar ice building.   Fingers crossed this is a different year that recent ones.  Its such a complicated and finely balanced environment that we just dont know how it will turn out

 

 

yeh on the ace of it, it looks like job done.  But this is a critical first step of a thousand to retain the ice and have an impact on climate We know this probably will be reversed by the summer based on other years of similar ice building.   Fingers crossed this is a different year that recent ones.  Its such a complicated and finely balanced environment that we just dont know how it will turn out

Worth remembering that if ice increase is early in autumn, then the chances are that the ice will proportionately linger longer in spring and give summer less time to do its melting.

However many steps of a thousand are needed to identify a real trend.

Sea ice is about as good as it could be atm.

Feels very much like 2013 again!

Sea ice is about as good as it could be atm.

Feels very much like 2013 again!

 

The key, of course, will be how much of this new, first year, ice can survive the summer melt and become 2-year ice.  Unless that happens we’re really not making any progress.

it seems as much as there has been more growth to the center of the north pole, there is perhaps less over Canada and its lakes,. They seem to be having a "milder" winter than norm?

Seems the cold has not relied on land mass to build, but the initial rapid freeze earlier as a seed to continue building the cold.

Probably associated with the recent change of the average synoptics. The loss of Arctic Ice over the last several decades is put down as the reason for the advection of warmer or less cold waters into the Arctic as suggested by this research' -

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00491/full%20%C2%A0

 

Probably associated with the recent change of the average synoptics. The loss of Arctic Ice over the last several decades is put down as the reason for the advection of warmer or less cold waters into the Arctic as suggested by this research' -

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00491/full%20%C2%A0

 

 

There is certainly some merit to this. 

I always keep an eye on the conditions in the N Norwegian Sea /southern Arctic ocean. This region has been very prone to warmer SW'ly' flows in recent years, keeping the SST's in that region warm. During the 'colder' decades of the 70s/80s etc, tropical SW'ly's were not as common n the region (going by reananalysis charts) whereas more potent northerly streams were and more akin to the synoptic set up there now:

It would take a few consistent months of this sort of synotpic to encourage even a slight cooling of the hugely high SST anomaly in that region, which in turn, would help in reducing the potency of Atlantic tropical flows into the Arctic itself. 

 

There is certainly some merit to this. 

I always keep an eye on the conditions in the N Norwegian Sea /southern Arctic ocean. This region has been very prone to warmer SW'ly' flows in recent years, keeping the SST's in that region warm. During the 'colder' decades of the 70s/80s etc, tropical SW'ly's were not as common n the region (going by reananalysis charts) whereas more potent northerly streams were and more akin to the synoptic set up there now:

It would take a few consistent months of this sort of synotpic to encourage even a slight cooling of the hugely high SST anomaly in that region, which in turn, would help in reducing the potency of Atlantic tropical flows into the Arctic itself. 

Any thoughts about what might be driving the changes in the synoptics? - which may of course be short or long term in duration.

That I would have no idea on. One theory I would put forward is that the pattern over the NE Atlantic (mostly straight west to east) this year allowed a relatively good opportunity for cold to build up undisturbed in that region of the Arctic. Duration probably will only be short term I would say, but all eyes on as they say. 

 

That I would have no idea on. One theory I would put forward is that the pattern over the NE Atlantic (mostly straight west to east) this year allowed a relatively good opportunity for cold to build up undisturbed in that region of the Arctic. Duration probably will only be short term I would say, but all eyes on as they say. 

Anyone have a clue as to the recent history of water vapour values in the Arctic?

Dozens of ships trapped by ice up to 1.5m thick, weeks earlier than normal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/dozens-ships-stuck-arctic-ice-freezes-early-reverse-recent-warming

It’s behind a Paywall but the opening sentence mentions an inaccurate weather forecast as the cause of the problem?

Dozens of ships trapped by ice up to 1.5m thick, weeks earlier than normal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/dozens-ships-stuck-arctic-ice-freezes-early-reverse-recent-warming

Even teams facing relegation can, it seems, score the odd goal.

Even teams facing relegation can, it seems, score the odd goal.

Yes and Derby scored 3.

Its possible JAXA sea ice extent could jump out of the bottom 15 tommorow. Its been a long time since that has happened.

Its possible JAXA sea ice extent could jump out of the bottom 15 tommorow. Its been a long time since that has happened.

 

Ships stuck in Arctic Ice ..... because of early freeze.

I wonder what position JAXA sea ice extent will move to in a months time?