Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

6 Pages<12345>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Bertwhistle  
#41 Posted : 12 September 2021 14:50:28(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,614
Location: Central Southern England

We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Taylor1740  
#42 Posted : 12 September 2021 15:22:00(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 293
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.

How do you mean 'you hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming'? Are you suggesting they are fiddling the data?

As for the 16c+ I agree that it is by no means are guarantee and I suspect the current 18.2c could be running at least 0.5c above the actual so far, but will see what GW says.

 

 

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline lanky  
#43 Posted : 12 September 2021 16:02:57(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,693
Man

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.

If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Bertwhistle  
#44 Posted : 13 September 2021 09:44:28(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,614
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post

 

If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659

 

No- apologies to you and Taylor & anyone else- I should have posted a smiley; it was intended lightly. I certainly wasn't hijacking this brilliant thread with a climate agenda!

Soz.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#45 Posted : 13 September 2021 10:15:00(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       17.9c       Anomaly      3.5c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                    17.01c     Anomaly       3.28c

Netweather                 17.82c     Anomaly       4.13c

Peasedown St John     17.17c    Anomaly     2.89c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Gavin P  
#46 Posted : 13 September 2021 11:04:41(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,471
Man
United Kingdom

Thanks ART! 

The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#47 Posted : 13 September 2021 13:24:23(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,492
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Thanks ART! 

The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up?

A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing.

But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible.

So these days anything is possible.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Saint Snow  
#48 Posted : 13 September 2021 14:08:43(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 52,302
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

 

A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing.

But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible.

So these days anything is possible.

 

 

The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).

I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing

“Never mind life expectancy, never mind cancer outcomes - look at wage growth” Bozo Johnson

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Bertwhistle  
#49 Posted : 13 September 2021 18:33:35(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,614
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).

I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing

This evening, the GFS Ens mean line is mostly > a degree above the black line, sometimes as high as +3 and only  reaching +0 on about two occasions.  This should give CETs at the higher end of your estimate.

I continue to be baffled by the black line- start and end of run just about the same, despite two weeks of autumnal onset. 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#50 Posted : 14 September 2021 10:22:53(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       17.7c     Anomaly      3.4c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                    16.89c   Anomaly      3.17c

Netweather                 17.67c   Anomaly      3.98c

Peasedown St John    17.92c   Anomaly     2.74c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Caz  
#51 Posted : 14 September 2021 18:29:10(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 22,810
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post
 

The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).

I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing

well, I’m very confident it will end closer to your prediction than mine!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#52 Posted : 15 September 2021 10:22:59(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th

Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c

Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c

Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#53 Posted : 15 September 2021 14:33:47(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,492
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th

Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c

Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c

Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.

Still very impressive and we're half way through the month.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline ARTzeman  
#54 Posted : 16 September 2021 10:20:47(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       17.4c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 15th

Metcheck                    16.61c    Anomaly        2.89c

Netweather                17.41c     Anomaly        3.72c

Peasedown St John    16.92c    Anomaly       2.54c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bolty  
#55 Posted : 16 September 2021 15:05:50(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,042
Man
Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

16°C+ is looking unlikely now, I'd say. The models seem to be suggesting a fresher feel for the final third of the month. Daytime temperatures will be similar to now, but the nights look to be turning quite a bit cooler.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

Offline ARTzeman  
#56 Posted : 17 September 2021 10:41:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      17.4c       Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                   16.54c     Anomaly     2.82c

Netweather                17.33c     Anomaly     3.64c

Peasedown St John   16.71c     Anomaly    2.43c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#57 Posted : 18 September 2021 10:35:34(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        17.3c      Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     16.48c    Anomaly     2.76c

Netweather                  17.27c    Anomaly     3.58c

Peasedown St John     16.6c     Anomaly     2.39c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#58 Posted : 19 September 2021 10:29:58(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      17.3c      Anomaly      3.2c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                   16.51c    Anomaly      2.79c

Netweather                17.3c      Anomaly     3.61c

Peasdeown St John   16.7c       Anomaly     2.42c.           

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#59 Posted : 19 September 2021 11:10:23(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,667
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Good afternoon. I have been away on holiday for the past week so not had a chance to post any updates for a while.

Latest CET estimate for September is 15.77C. So a steady fall off for the rest of the month as would be expected. Temperatures should stay slightly above average until the final three days of the month, mainly due to mild nights. Final September CET could be very similar to August.

Despite the fall off in the CET in the second half of the month this could still be the 7th warmest September on record. The CET has reached 16C or more on 6 occasions in September. We have never had a 15.8C or 15.9C September.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline ARTzeman  
#60 Posted : 20 September 2021 10:22:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,344
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      17.2c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                   16.37c    Anomaly       2.65c

Netweather                17.2c     Anomaly        3.51c

Peasedown St John   16.7c     Anomaly       2.4c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Users browsing this topic
Similar Topics
September UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
by Global Warming 31/08/2020 19:34:57(UTC)
September UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
by Global Warming 31/08/2019 20:42:12(UTC)
6 Pages<12345>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS Icon E Fax CFS UK Met UK Met UK UK Met UKV UK Met MOGREPS-G