I thought that the pub run was the 18z?

Entertaining last third of the GFS 12z with sub-512dam 500-1000 hPa air making it all the way down to the SE.

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Actually the older I get the more I like the idea of a boring mild and dry winter. Xmas card snowscapes are nice to look at, but not much fun to travel around in. Let's be honest, this country grinds to a halt with half an inch of snow, unlike our Scandanavian neighbours who are properly prepared for it.

Don’t look at the GFS 12z op run then. Or, more realistically, wait 6 hours and it will be gone…

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_324_1.png 

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Don’t look at the GFS 12z op run then. Or, more realistically, wait 6 hours and it will be gone…

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_324_1.png 

Beautiful - nationwide, non-marginal snow. Silly season has definitely arrived.

(And as for Christmas card snow on Christmas Day, 51 years and counting since it last happened here. I don't doubt it'll be 52 years soon enough!)

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A warm up this week and next week looking at the 850's. It may not at this time lead to balmy daytime temps but its been an impressive cold start to November IMBY

Averaging 5.5 degrees after 5 days. Considering the  1960 - 1991 CET is 8.4 at this stage of November, currently -2.9 CET IMBY

4 consecutive nights of -0.0 and below have helped 

Do not get 4 nights of below 0 in Dec, Jan, Feb normally HAHA

 

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How did I guess the GFS 12z OP run would be a cold outlier? Or could it be a trendsetter? - Still a long way off!

In Stockholm next week - Thinking there would be chance of me having a white birthday on 13th which would be my first white birthday since 13th Nov 2007 when I was in Krakow Poland. However looking at the ENS for Stockholm it appears like it would be really mild there too! Furthermore no chance of ice skating on Kungsträdgården apparently so I heard due to the unseasonably mild weather - they haven't even re-opened yet. The early snow in falling in Scandinavia was mostly confined and restricted to the central and northern parts of coun try anyway: GFS 12z For Stockholm look balmy - the majority of uppers are between +4 and +10c the very time I am there! I just don't believe this...I really don't! (sorry this really should be in the autumn moaning thread). 

Spoke to my partners family in Romania - it was 25c today in Hartiesti - Just ridiculous! 

Leaving you with current temperatures across Europe!

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Interesting flip by the ECM at +240z - complete contrast to this mornings 00z run:

Come on! Maybe I could see some white stuff whilst in Sweden! :))

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A very topsy-turvy run that 12Z is. Very mild and calm next weekend, with temperatures into the mid-teens quite widely, before an exceptional cold plunge for November the weekend after. I expect none of it to materialise, but it makes for interesting viewing when we see large swings in the weather over a short period of time like that.

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How did I guess the GFS 12z OP run would be a cold outlier? 

It’s not. It is one of the coldest options.

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A very wet & cold winter generates loads of interest. A mild and dry one doesn't. 

Corrected. 

Interesting flip by the ECM at +240z - complete contrast to this mornings 00z run:

Come on! Maybe I could see some white stuff whilst in Sweden! :))

I do wonder if the models are picking up a signal for a blast from the north for late November. It would certainly fit with Met office extended (30 day) narrative. 
I’m enjoying the frosts this week but with the late October deluge & remaining moisture it’s been havoc with condensation plagued widows every morning. 

A very remarkable pub run, with the NAO going through the floor. An FI chart, but it's not often you get easterlies at 60°N all the way across the North Atlantic!

Not very cold at 850hPa however, though I'd imagine there would be a lot of surface cold.

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Interesting GFS 00z run. Could be very mild if it is correct.

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The GFS model is really struggling with the evolution in a fortnight's time; pick your charts from the last few days and you could have a tropical blast from the south or an arctic blast from the north -see the last 3 or 4 posts and the daily reviews. Probably not unrelated to the instability of the jet noted yesterday which had very strong with N and S flows both geographically close on the same day, and switching positions from just W of the UK to just east of the UK on following days.

As for what's showing this morning:

Wx summary resembles yesterday wrt temp, though the push of cold air from the NE is less intense while covering the same area (bulge of cold air moving E with 0C isotherm almost reaching Poland week 2 which should restore temps to normal over there. some cooling around UK too but no more than seasonal.). However the rain/snow while the same for week 1 (N Atlantic and Baltic) now sticks in that area and no longer shifts to W fringes in week 2, indeed affecting more of Scandinavia.

Jet -a generally W-ly flow near N Scotland for this week gives way to a looping jet from Sun 14th, with amplitude from Iceland to S England (less extreme than yesterday), broader loops and the loops themselves moving E-wards and not sticking in one place

GFS op - best described as Zonal overall for next two weeks, with a tweak from TS Wanda as it moves past Scotland on Tue.. LPs in the flow (which will bring down N-lies) on Sun 7th 985 mb Fair Isle , Mon 15th (trough down from Iceland), Sun 21st 975 mb Hebrides but overall HP  quite strong near the S/SW and bringing in mild air from S central Atlantic esp Sat 13th 1025mb N France, Tue 16th and Mon 22nd both 1040mb off SW Eire

GEFS - in the S temp rising to mild  (v. mild ca 6C above norm Sun 14th) for 10 days then declining steadily to below norm by Mon 22nd (varying a bit in different runs); not much rain and that mostly around Thu 18th. Some conflict of suite of runs with the op charts described above and for Scotland some wild temp swings imposed on the more stable pattern in the S

ECM - broad area of HP across esp S England without much interference from passing LPs, retrogressing Mon 15th with LP over Scandi bringing N-lies 

All in all, a bit of a muddle and inconsistent from day to day

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Seems like a huge scatter is appearing now from mid November, ranging from a very mild spell to a very cold arctic blast. Not really much point then taking one operational run too seriously, it's all about the trends at this range.

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Yes, there seems to be quite a bit of volatility in the models at the moment. I have been reading a few of the BBC monthly outlooks recently and they have mentioned the problems the models have been having in determining the likely pattern for the coming few weeks.

There is plenty to keep us on our toes just now!

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Yes! Agree David - looks like a lot of flip flopping going on and that the rollercoaster has begun - it does appear like the models are trying to set up a colder spell 3rd week but it's all FI range ATM and it's unsure when.

 

The GFS at 240 is very different to this mornings ECM.

GFS 06z run shows Siberian high moving westwards towards Scandinavia:

ECM @ 240: - Which shows No Siberian high just low pressure in those parts and a cold plunge for Scandinavia ( The exact opposite).

 

Either way we could be in for an exceptionally mild autumn!?

 

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ECM30 suggesting the possibility of some colder weather later this month but then it turns mild again by the start of December. GEFS35 not interested either. However, the Beeb forecast seems quite bullish on the prospect of cold weather. I genuinely wonder what they're seeing other than the well discussed background signals.

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Either way we could be in for an exceptionally mild autumn!?

 

I'm happy for you or others to shoot me down, but I believe a (possibly weak) correlation has been shown between mild autumns and mild winters. The view that "things even out" is largely bunkum, at least when looked at over this length of time.

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I'm happy for you or others to shoot me down, but I believe a (possibly weak) correlation has been shown between mild autumns and mild winters. The view that "things even out" is largely bunkum, at least when looked at over this length of time.

The current, and increasingly obvious forecast synoptics, reminds me of that long spell of westerly driven high pressure spell that occurred before the onset of that infamous 2013/2014 winter. 

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I'm happy for you or others to shoot me down, but I believe a (possibly weak) correlation has been shown between mild autumns and mild winters. The view that "things even out" is largely bunkum, at least when looked at over this length of time.

It's impossible to argue against this from the perspective of cold winters as they are the exception. To say that they can even out would suggest we get an even number of cold and mild winters which would be ridiculous.

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