LOL - The interesting thing will be how seemingly cool synoptics translate to ground conditions. Last winter wasn't mild on the face of the synoptics but it was nowhere near as cold as it should have been. Cold months are a rarity nowadays

That is something which can not be ignored. I think last winter was actually slightly milder than the norm in parts of the south.

WX summaries - week 1 temps generally above norm across Europe, very much so in Scandi ( a turn round from a month ago there), week 2 cooling somewhat. Pptn maps keep changing, latest is week 1 wet from Spain, France, UK, Norway, week 2 it withdraws to the NW but still catches Scotland.

Jet - looping and streaking around the UK for the next two weeks, sometimes mainly affecting Scotland (e.g. tomorrow & Sat 6th), sometimes the Channel (Wed 3rd, Thu 11th)

GFS - synoptics for the last few days and continuing don't pick up the stalled front over Cumbria and Borders giving lots of orographic rain - for this see Fax - which doesn't really clear until Friday. GFS itself has mild SW-lies from Atlantic LP until Sat 30th when pressure generally dops over the UK and local LPs (Mon 1st 985 mb Belgium, Wed 3rd 985mb Yorks) promote N-ly flow. Back to the Atlantic with strong SW-lies from Mon 8th (that wasn't there yesterday) and a repeat with pressure dropping over UK at end of run Thu 11th.

GEFS - wet Fri 29th (but see above for earlier in N which does show up on GEFS) for a week, less so afterwards. Dip in temps to 6 or 7C below around FRi 5th but recovering much more quickly than shown previously, mean back to norm Tue 9th with op & control really toasty esp in S

ECM - .similar to GFS but LP on Mon 1st is 980mb Scotland; the SW=lies then resume but  a day or two earlier perhaps with more of a W-ly component esp in the N

 

That is something which can not be ignored. I think last winter was actually slightly milder than the norm in parts of the south.

Indeed it was,we did not really have any cold weather except from last week of Dec to second half of January, wheras Scotland had a colder winter than average.

As Gavin P often points out last winter could be a teaser winter and this coming winter might deliver a proper cold winter or last winter will turn out to be a failed winter and we`ve missed the boat.

Great forecast on your you tube channel yesterday,Brian looks like all the models are consistent that the first cold spell will arrive next week.Its going to be a bit of a shock to the system!

Temps on the way down from tomorrow , anyone's guess what happens after 5th 

Cooling trend showing on the MOGREPS 1.5m temp plot for Berkhamsted.

Cooling trend showing on the MOGREPS 1.5m temp plot for Berkhamsted.

Might even get the winter coat out… and light the fire 🔥 (not at the same time) 

wx summaries - temps staying above average for Europe, notably so in E Europe, though there is some proper cold stuff in the far NE. Rain for Britain and France week 1, moving N and affecting mainly Scotland and Baltic week 2

Jet - streaks and loops running S around England to Thu 4th, then Scotland's turn but the loop flips N-ward Thu 11th

GFS - Current Atlantic LP moving towards UK first as a general trough then deepening 980mb Clyde Mon 1st (like yesterday's ECM) bringing N-lies which soon dissipate in favour of W-lies; pressure rising in the S e.g. 1030mb Tue 9th. This collapses asa trough approaches from the SW 1000mb SW Eire Sat 13th.

GEFS - rain for this week to about Wed 3rd, drier but not entirely so thereafter. Temps falling away to about 6C below seasonal norm Fri 5th, mean of runs recovering to norm after 3-4 days with op run v. warm, control oscillating between v. warm and v. cold

ECM - pattern similar to GFS but LP Mon 1st is to E of Scotland, and slower to bring in the zonal flow from the W. No sign of  pressure rise in S even at end of run Sun 7th

WX summary "can't be reached" at this time

Jet - around the S of the UK to Sat 6th, the around the N - intermittently very strong but broken up in strength and directiond by looping but that looping not as exaggerated as previously so staying closer to UK

GFS - generally LP for next few days, one centre traversing Britain from SW Eire to Shetland by Tue 2nd, then another in N Sea to Fri 5th. Ridge of HP lying W-R across England after that to Sun 14th, coming and going (interrupted by LP from N from time to time) strongest 1030mb Wed 10th

GEFS - Heavy rain this week, some rain from time to time in different runs next week. Temp generally agreed on dipping to min 5C below norm Fri 5th with good agreement, slowly recovering to norm by Sun 15th (usual scatter, but not as dramatic as recent charts in the S, still some wild swings in the N with op & control both v warm around Wed 10th)

ECM - good agreement with GFS to Fri 5th, then more of a zonal flow with HP as a broader area and further S

Briefly this morning )pressure of time)

WX summary is up again- fairly mild across most of Europe, cooler in the W and esp in far NE. Rain for Uk & France this week, retreating NW wards with splodges (new Met term?) in the Baltic and Turkey

GFS op - Lp moving in from Atlantic, centred Scotland Mon 1st and slowly moving on; brief ridges of HP Sat 6th and Tue 9th with LP brushing the N in between; repeat with more LP brushing past Sat 13th and Mon 15th

GEFS - agreement temps at lowest Fri 5th, recovering to norm more quickly than forecast yesterday but with plenty of uncertainty from Tue 9th esp in N. Rain to 3rd, brief dry spell, resuming Sun 7th, more than yesterday forecast for S but plenty for N as well

ECM - similar to GFS

(from tomorrow with clock change it'll be easier to pick up the ECM 0z at the moment when I have time available i.e 0700. Today's ECM is based on 12z after next weekend)

Thanks DEW as always. 

Fairly solid agreement out to Nov 6th 

Last nights Gfs operational was an outlier to some degree, but we are catapulted back into Mild temps into week 2 of November.

wx summary not showing much change for week 1 temps - average across W Europe, above average further E; but week 2 shows a significant invasion of cold air from the NE to cover Russia while the Atlantic fringe from UK southwards gets a bit milder. PPTn over UK/France/Italy week 1 moving to N Atlantic week 2 leaving large dry area (new!) for all W  Europe (incl UK exc far NW) week 2 

Jet - loop dipping around the S of UK to Thu 4th, moving E and making way for a series of streaks across N Scotland to Sat 13th followed by loop rising N-wards and clear of UK

GFS op - current LP at deepest 975 mb Scotland Mon 1st  moving E-wards but still leaving trough down N Sea with N-pies to Fri 5th. Area of HP at first over S but expanding to cover all UK 1030mb Thu 11th moving to Baltic Tue 16th but still dominating UK . TS Wanda in mid-Atlantic Thu 4th but moving N and absorbed into general circulation.

GEFS - v good agreement on cool/cold to Fri 5th (say 5C below norm) with sudden return to norm followed by much uncertainty; mean near norm but op & control warm , the op remarkably so at 10C above norm from Thu 11th onwards (contrast another run at about 14C below!). Rain now, dry to Gri 5th then small amounts in some runs for rest of forecast

ECM - like GFS to Fri 5th but then after a false start fails to develop the HP and LP moves in instead  - 970 mb Rockall Mon 8th becoming 985 mb Bristol Channel Wed 10th with cold air from NE-ly source working its way down Irish Sea. TS Wanda is not completely absorbed but becomes a S-ward extending trough tacked on to the main circulation; no direct link to the LP on Mon 8th but may have boosted its development

Fri 5th is the day to watch - could go dramatically different directions from there

wx summary not showing much change for week 1 temps - average across W Europe, above average further E; but week 2 shows a significant invasion of cold air from the NE to cover Russia while the Atlantic fringe from UK southwards gets a bit milder. PPTn over UK/France/Italy week 1 moving to N Atlantic week 2 leaving large dry area (new!) for all W  Europe (incl UK exc far NW) week 2 

Jet - loop dipping around the S of UK to Thu 4th, moving E and making way for a series of streaks across N Scotland to Sat 13th followed by loop rising N-wards and clear of UK

GFS op - current LP at deepest 975 mb Scotland Mon 1st  moving E-wards but still leaving trough down N Sea with N-pies to Fri 5th. Area of HP at first over S but expanding to cover all UK 1030mb Thu 11th moving to Baltic Tue 16th but still dominating UK . TS Wanda in mid-Atlantic Thu 4th but moving N and absorbed into general circulation.

GEFS - v good agreement on cool/cold to Fri 5th (say 5C below norm) with sudden return to norm followed by much uncertainty; mean near norm but op & control warm , the op remarkably so at 10C above norm from Thu 11th onwards (contrast another run at about 14C below!). Rain now, dry to Gri 5th then small amounts in some runs for rest of forecast

ECM - like GFS to Fri 5th but then after a false start fails to develop the HP and LP moves in instead  - 970 mb Rockall Mon 8th becoming 985 mb Bristol Channel Wed 10th with cold air from NE-ly source working its way down Irish Sea. TS Wanda is not completely absorbed but becomes a S-ward extending trough tacked on to the main circulation; no direct link to the LP on Mon 8th but may have boosted its development

Fri 5th is the day to watch - could go dramatically different directions from there

Happy Haloween all,

Great analysis there!! Typical Autumn fair on the cards for the moment then.

Liking the way cold air is sitting to the north east this year.....think a 1940 style winter could be on the way  ....about time Kent got a decent dumping...

Another very mild GFS run. Met office going for a cold November still. Making the CET comp guess very difficult. 

Another very mild GFS run. Met office going for a cold November still. Making the CET comp guess very difficult. 

 

Op on the high side for sure 

I'm enjoying the latest drivel-fest from the ever reliable Daily Express: "Tornado warning as 87mph winds poised to hit UK." Er, really?  

I'm enjoying the latest drivel-fest from the ever reliable Daily Express: "Tornado warning as 87mph winds poised to hit UK." Er, really?  

Yes indeed! I'm in Northants and we had a very squally cold front go through about 10:30 am. Lots of trees down and road and rail disruption. The wind was very strong for 10 or 15 minutes. Rev Richard Coles at Finedon (about 2 miles from here) reckons his church was hit by a tornado. Whilst I cant rule that out, I was not very far away and we had very strong straight line winds. I think thats waht he experienced too. Intersting radar return at that time showed a very pronounced hook feature right over the top of us, almost aking to a miniature version of the scorpion tail  of a sting jet. Was very intersting to experience, but I am now launching the search party for my wheelie bins and the front portions of the neighbours fence.

(edit: trying to post image of the radar paint but I cant seem to do it..sorry)

https://imgur.com/gallery/yb81pR7

I'm enjoying the latest drivel-fest from the ever reliable Daily Express: "Tornado warning as 87mph winds poised to hit UK." Er, really?  

Tbf this one time they seem to have been on the money. Looks like a tornado in Northamptonshire.  80mph gusts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-59110091