The GFS has definitely trended better for the first week of August compared with a few days ago. Now it's looking more like your typical changeable summer pattern with some calmer, sunnier days and some showery days. It's certainly a lot better than than the Atlantic conveyor belt it was suggesting at the beginning of the week. The temperatures look slightly better too - probably around average instead of slightly below.

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Lovely sustained heat being shown on the 12z later in the month.
The evolving pattern has many of the hallmarks for perhaps record breaking heat in the south east.

Looks like there could be a chance of plume type set up at least briefly, but I'd be very surprised if we saw record breaking heat considering it has been a relatively cool Summer in France.

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Looks like there could be a chance of plume type set up at least briefly, but I'd be very surprised if we saw record breaking heat considering it has been a relatively cool Summer in France.

Tbh temperatures seem to rocket upwards so easily these days despite the privalling conditions 

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Tbh temperatures seem to rocket upwards so easily these days despite the privalling conditions 

Yes but I don't think we're going to be seeing a 39c this August. ECM 12z showing an unsettled picture with the relatively cool air stretching down to the South of France.

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Yes but I don't think we're going to be seeing a 39c this August. ECM 12z showing an unsettled picture with the relatively cool air stretching down to the South of France.

Also unlikely given the high soil moisture

Unusually it seems to be bad guy ECM, good guy GFS. Worryingly the others - GEM, ICON and UKMO - look more ECMish than GFSish.

Money’s on the models with the higher verification scores, sadly.

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Unusually it seems to be bad guy ECM, good guy GFS. Worryingly the others - GEM, ICON and UKMO - look more ECMish than GFSish.

Money’s on the models with the higher verification scores, sadly.

To be fair the best of the weather shown in the GFS is beyond the timescale of the other models currently.

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Right, I'm going to be looking for sunny, warm and breezy in the west of Jockland for the 14th - 21st Aug.

A forlorn hope? 

 

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Right, I'm going to be looking for sunny, warm and breezy in the west of Jockland for the 14th - 21st Aug.

A forlorn hope? 

 

Yes. 

 

 

No. 

(Too early to say)

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Yes. 

 

 

No. 

(Too early to say)

 

Well history ain't on my side, I grant you

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It’s one thing expecting wet and windy weather in western Scotland in August. Quite another to expect it in the Channel Islands, but that looks like my fate. At least there are mountains and lochs to look at in the highlands.

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Wx summaries indicate a slight improvement in temp for England into week 2; the focus of rainfall moves from England in week 1 to NW Scotland in week 2 (but note - this based on GFS, if based on ECM would be different)

FAX tracks Evert from 992mb Cornwall last night to 996mb Dutch coast midnight tonight after which it becomes part of a complex low 991 mb Sweden which brings a cold front erratically S over the UK that finally clears Mon 2nd.

GFS - after the above cold front passes, the wind swings round to the W between HP near the Azores and LP near Greenland. The W flow brings a trough from the N 1000mb over Scotland Fri 6th with sub 552dam air down to N England. The W-ly flow then resumes until a new LP is embedded which pumps up some warmth from the S from Thu 12th. However at the end of run that LP gets closer and deepens 985mb Malin Sun 15th. 

GEFS - in the S, cool until Wed 11th after which (with considerable uncertainty) the limited prospect of rising temps to the 15th.  Scotland, a definite dip in temp Sun 1st after which resuming closer to norm than in the S, similar uptick at end. Intermittent rain throughout for all, perhaps a little drier towards end.

ECM - has different depression tracks, cyclogenesis to the SW rather than the NW, with the LP on Fri 6th passing across C England (at that time shallow, though earlier 990mb off SW Ireland) closely followed by another arriving Irish Sea 995mb Sun 8th, this time dragging in the sub 552dam air.

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An ongoing trend in the post 10 day EC runs. 

Azores building in again but hopefully will keep the worst of the heat (should it verify anything like this) confined to the SE of England, where it rightfully belongs, this time around. 

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Its look like rinse and repeat for next week , with a deep low coming in again

some slight changes on the synoptics this morning which means maybe no real dry spell on the cards, but perhaps more steady british summer weather for the next week or so

Rain will be around, but weighted more towards the north and west, and south and east looking drier and more typical of a normal summers day

No significant heat offer, but pleasant when its sunny.

Breezy at times which should help with biting insects

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Totally FI of course, but check out the 2m temps at the end of the 6z GFS. Add on the usual 2-3c and we are looking at upper 30s. 🤣
Will obviously all change on the 12z, but nice to look at at least.

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Totally FI of course, but check out the 2m temps at the end of the 6z GFS. Add on the usual 2-3c and we are looking at upper 30s. 🤣
Will obviously all change on the 12z, but nice to look at at least.

 

a spanish plume - My - theyve been rare this year?  could be the first one?

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Totally FI of course, but check out the 2m temps at the end of the 6z GFS. Add on the usual 2-3c and we are looking at upper 30s. 🤣
Will obviously all change on the 12z, but nice to look at at least.

It would be hilarious if it happened. But it’s the outlier to end all outliers. 

Nevertheless any hot spell that evolves out of tight zonal flow is more likely to end in a hot continental feed and southerly plume than one that develops further north like our last one.

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GFS raw data suggests a max of 29C in London with 850mb temps of 22.3C. Not sure what is going on there!

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GFS raw data suggests a max of 29C in London with 850mb temps of 22.3C. Not sure what is going on there!

Not sure which plot you are looking at but the raw data is going for 34C min.

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