If you want to see winter forecasts just look at the CFS on wetternezle.de all runs now go out to well into April 2022. Absolutly brilliant website None of the CFS runs are showing cold,dry,anticyclonic conditions that the bbc have mentioned.

You sure youre looking at the same charts?

Compared to most winters the CFS is an anticyclonic fest, with very few depressions near the UK.  If you were to base a forecast on the CFS today it would be cold,dry,anticyclonic

 

To be honest the snow cover is late and every year there is a build up of snow cover. Not a good theory many more factors

Unlike in some other places the snow cover in Scandinavia is more extensive than average for the time of year not less (cf http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2021&ui_day=293&ui_set=2 ). Whether that has any impact on our weather at all is a different matter.

At least the south of England will see 1 frosty morning this winter 2021/2022 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=1&summary=y

At least the south of England will see 1 frosty morning this winter 2021/2022 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=1&summary=y

 

 This could well be more snow than you see in Exeter this winter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU

 

 This could well be more snow than you see in Exeter this winter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU

 

Yes - great snowcover over Scandinavia so far and it's only 21st October:

Literally the whole of Finland and half of Norway and Sweden already snow covered looking at the latest on NOAA and more is forecast for tomorrow and weekend.

https://usicecenter.gov/pub/ims_eurasia.gif

 

 

Yes - great snowcover over Scandinavia so far and it's only 21st October:

Literally the whole of Finland and half of Norway and Sweden already snow covered looking at the latest on NOAA and more is forecast for tomorrow and weekend.

https://usicecenter.gov/pub/ims_eurasia.gif

 

If it gets south of St Petersburg and Helsinki by the end of November I will be keeping a close watch but where it is now is nothing unusual.

 

 This could well be more snow than you see in Exeter this winter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU

 

Just to add - That, that would be better than last winter anyway because Exeter and the SW missed out on most of the snow and cold!

Nice live and good to see almost two thirds of Scandinavia covered in snow! Some of it may melt but still the fact it's the 21st of October and there is so much snow cover with more forecast is a great sign for us! All we need is a block of HP to set up there and to bring in the cold easterly air mass from Scandinavia.  

 

If you want to see winter forecasts just look at the CFS on wetternezle.de all runs now go out to well into April 2022. Absolutly brilliant website None of the CFS runs are showing cold,dry,anticyclonic conditions that the bbc have mentioned.

Is that link correct? Chrome says check your typing

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx CFS charts show HP close to N Scotland for the next six months bar Nov and E-lies across England

 

Is that link correct? Chrome says check your typing

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=cfs&var=1&time=0&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0 

 

Unlike in some other places the snow cover in Scandinavia is more extensive than average for the time of year not less (cf http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2021&ui_day=293&ui_set=2 ). Whether that has any impact on our weather at all is a different matter.

Quite a lot of snow fell yesterday in Scandinavia, some places now reporting 15cm (6 inch) lying snow.  In many years the seasonal snowcover starts in November (excluding the transient period where it all melts before next snowfall)

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/weather/inari/saariselkä?parameter=snowdepth

 

Is that link correct? Chrome says check your typing

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx CFS charts show HP close to N Scotland for the next six months bar Nov and E-lies across England

CFS updates every day. 

 

Unlike in some other places the snow cover in Scandinavia is more extensive than average for the time of year not less (cf http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2021&ui_day=293&ui_set=2 ). Whether that has any impact on our weather at all is a different matter.

Indeed, thanks for providing the data to back up what I was saying earlier in the thread.

It is definitely of interest the early build of snow cover In Scandinavian and we shall see what impact it has as we move into the Winter.

A grim ECM tonight if you like chilly Autumn weather. 

A grim ECM tonight if you like chilly Autumn weather. 

let the real cold arrive in time for Christmas 

Met office either very late or missed their proposed release date (today) for the contingency planners 3 month update.
Wouldn’t be the first time either.

Scandinavian snow cover suddenly forcing them into a forecast overhaul of course 🤣🥸🤕

This is only a hunch, but I reckon their forecast will be along the lines of "the winter overall will likely have spells of average temperatures, but times where temperatures are mild, and also when they are cool or cold. Rainfall totals will generally be average, but could be above average for periods with the potential to also be below average."

 

 

This is only a hunch, but I reckon their forecast will be along the lines of "the winter overall will likely have spells of average temperatures, but times where temperatures are mild, and also when they are cool or cold. Rainfall totals will generally be average, but could be above average for periods with the potential to also be below average."

You can bet your house it’ll be in favour of above average temps throughout. Rainfall amounts however I think could go either way. 

 

If it gets south of St Petersburg and Helsinki by the end of November I will be keeping a close watch but where it is now is nothing unusual.

Could be an interesting winter ahead.

Wrt the Met Office see the Tweets below.

Potential impacts of the developing #LaNina and an E #QBO on our #weather in the months ahead...https://t.co/99PPgVexG5

— Marco Petagna (@Petagna) October 21, 2021