God forbid no. It was a facebook weather forecast site.

 

 

Oh, that's alright then.

It's looking increasingly likely that the weather is going to turn decisively more unsettled after this week, with a deep Atlantic low sat close to the UK for most of next week. After an intial burst of warmth around Monday and Tuesday, it's also looking like we will see much more of a Pm influence too. It could be a bit of a "shock to the system" so to speak, especially if winds fall lighter overnight and we get some chilly mornings.

Interesting to see 1989 as the best match today on the daily WAI:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx

Interesting to see 1989 as the best match today on the daily WAI:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx

 

What was the 89/90 winter like?

Oh hang on... I remember now 

(worth noting that ranked 4th, though, is 2010. Not that WAS a great run-up to Xmas)

Nothing in the models, troposphere or stratosphere in the semi reliable or FI to suggest an early start to winter regardless of of the endless hokum to the contrary. early days I know but from what we are seeing so far and the ec46 and glosea 6 updates it does not look very encouraging for the upcoming winter from a snow geese's point of view.
Still early days I suppose.

The 18Z GFS is like a pub run for those who like very wet and stormy weather. In my case . . . cheers for the nightmare fuel before going to bed. 

Nothing in the models, troposphere or stratosphere in the semi reliable or FI to suggest an early start to winter regardless of of the endless hokum to the contrary. early days I know but from what we are seeing so far and the ec46 and glosea 6 updates it does not look very encouraging for the upcoming winter from a snow geese's point of few.
Still early days I suppose.

Interesting post. A number of people (not on this forum) have told me they think this winter will be the big one. Personally I remain sceptical, but as usual will wait to see how the autumn plays out before making a call. It looks like 8 out the first 10 months this year will be close to or warmer than average. 

Summary charts much as yesterday for temp summaries most of Europe returning to seasonal temps or even a little above while the cold pool moves down to the Balkans. Some cold stuff in the far N, too. but more rain for the UK weeks 1 & 2 than y'day and than rain then going on to the N and S of Europe rather than across the middle.

GFS - current HP declining and just hanging on in the SE by Tue 19th as LP moves across Scotland to Scandi with stormy day for all Thu 21st and N-lies to follow. Then a week with LPs moving across from the Atlantic (Mon 25th 985 mb Hebrides, Wed 27th 980 mb Irish Sea, another waiting on the Atlantic Sat 30th) separated by passing ridges of HP. 

GEFS - temps down below norm this week, up (quite a bit ) Tue 19th, down Fri 22nd, then probably close to or a little below norm. Rain from ca 18th onwards, quite persistent and heavy even in S but (unusually?) less in the Highlands. Inverness has a snow row 14 on the 22nd.

ECM - like GFS though an area of LP over UK on Fri 22nd prevents N-lies from getting established

 

Interesting post. A number of people (not on this forum) have told me they think this winter will be the big one. Personally I remain sceptical, but as usual will wait to see how the autumn plays out before making a call. It looks like 8 out the first 10 months this year will be close to or warmer than average. 

I saw the met office Glosea 5 seasonal probability and seasonal mean ENS - it doesn't look good at all for anyone looking for a cold and snowy winter and I wonder if this is because the models are picking up on a moderate to strong La Nina? We saw this last year and then it backed off and we ended up with a weak La Nina but many models esp those with mild bias such as CFSv2, Jamstex and Met Office (Glosea 5) picked up on this strong la Nina for last winter and all went for a mild and zonal winter and we had the exact opposite didn't we and the NAO/AO was largely negative with weakened zonal winds? In my opinion the most reliable (if any) long range seasonal model is the Beijing climate center (BCC) - it forecast a lot of northern Blocking for last winter and this proved very accurate - although we never had true locked in cold and snow like in March 2018 or 2013 the zonal winds went into reversal twice.

This winter I am a little more optimistic because we have the easterly QBO on our side.

 

Interesting post. A number of people (not on this forum) have told me they think this winter will be the big one. Personally I remain sceptical, but as usual will wait to see how the autumn plays out before making a call. It looks like 8 out the first 10 months this year will be close to or warmer than average. 

Most winters all I want is one significant cold spell with 2-3 spells of snow. Settling on top of one another. If the rest of the winter was mild I wouldn’t care.

WX summary: temps across most of Europe incl UK somewhat above long term average for next two weeks sandwiched between extra warmth for S Spain and cold for Norway, the latter not backed up by any cold weather appearing in far E/NE Europe. Rain (snow for Scandi?) mostly in a broad band from Atlantic across UK and on to the Baltic, plus some in the Balkans.

Jet - never far from the UK and mostly strong W-ly with occasional breaks as it curls up briefly into loops e.g. Sun 24th

GFS - deep Lp over Scandi for next few days but now shown further away so UK likely to miss any N-lies and stormy weather; new large LP moving off Atlantic with trough over UK Wed 20th and then moving on to Scandi, deepening as it goes so another chance of N-ly gales. Brief ridge of HP before another LP more local and intense 980mb Hebrides Mon 25th. Other LPs passing N of Scotland Thu 28th and Sun  31st to join the main gyre over Scandi which is getting a real bashing over the next two weeks. 

GEFS - temps up and down with some quite big swings; cool 16th, 22nd (even a snow row figure of 1 for Brighton!), 26th; warm 19th (very), 24th, 29th (less certain) matching approximately S-lies as LPs approach and N-lies as they depart. Rain from 19th onwards (17th in N) without much of a break and some big totals 

ECM - similar to GFS though LP 25th less deep and staying out W

wx summary temps still mild for a band stretching from the UK across Europe to the Black Sea; the Med still warm though not quite as warm as might be expected and serious cold weather beginning to show over Scandi and in week 2 the far NE of Europe. Atlantic rain aplenty for the UK shared with Scandi week 1 and then with France and the Alps week 2 (prob some large high-level snowfalls for the latter)

Jet still active over or close to the UK from the beginning of next week and into Nov, tending to run further S than shown previously, i.e. across SW England and up the Channel

GFS - procession of LPs, bringing warmth from the S as they approach and coolth from the N as they depart, with brief episodes of HP in between. Distinct LPs Wed 20th Fair Isle deepening and moving to E Scotland on the Thu; Sun 24th 990 mb Hebrides with trough over all UK on the Mon; Thu 28th 1000 mb N England; Sun 31st 975 mb Orkney. With an active and unstable jet these details will change but the pattern will still be there

GEFS - warm Tue 19th, cool Sat 23rd, mean keeping in touch with norm thereafter but Op & control fancy another warm/cold alternation either side of Fri 29th. Lots of rain with many high individual totals -a bit drier for Scotland into week 2

ECM - similar to GFS though inclined to run a day later on the passage of LPs

Strength of zonal winds remain weaker than average for the near and foreseeable future at least until January and this is a long way out as well (even with bias corrected the zonal winds appear weaker and a few going into reverse) - could be in response to the mature easterly QBO and picking up on a SSW. Also we have a warmer than average stratosphere at 10hpa as well. Early days yet of course but we are heading into the latter stages of October now when the strength of zonal winds would usually be powering up along with the PV strengthening. Instead we are seeing the exact opposite.

 

Interesting post. A number of people (not on this forum) have told me they think this winter will be the big one. Personally I remain sceptical, but as usual will wait to see how the autumn plays out before making a call. It looks like 8 out the first 10 months this year will be close to or warmer than average. 

Don't people say that every year, to be fair? 😁

I agree. I'm skeptical. The background signals don't look particularly cold in my view. At most I'm expecting something like last winter, if not milder to be honest.

 

Don't people say that every year, to be fair? 😁

I agree. I'm skeptical. The background signals don't look particularly cold in my view. At most I'm expecting something like last winter, if not milder to be honest.

What makes you think milder?

We have a mature easterly QBO on our side this winter?

There's no science to this but Ill keep a close eye on the models leading up and beyond Xmas, and so with my wet lettuce hat on I'd say a lot of snow.

1. We're due for an a good icing (It's been a while)


2. When everything seems to be going tlts up.


3. No food on the shelves.


4. Shortage of plumbers


5. Gas shortages.


6. Probably power cuts.


7. Return of Cov 19 (Or some new bug we don't know about yet (but the gov do)


8. Flu


9. Big market crash


10. Tsunami from Cumbre Vieja.


11. Massive volcanic eruption somewhere on the planet (then we will have a cold winter and the models will be out the window.


12. WW III


13. Asteroid Apophis hits us (but that's in bout 80,000 years.) in the mean time something as big will hit us before then

Lettuce hat removed.

Happy days 

P.s So I'm probably better off living in the "now!" ;)

There's no science to this but Ill keep a close eye on the models leading up and beyond Xmas, and so with my wet lettuce hat on I'd say a lot of snow.

1. We're due for an a good icing (It's been a while)


2. When everything seems to be going tlts up.


3. No food on the shelves.


4. Shortage of plumbers


5. Gas shortages.


6. Probably power cuts.


7. Return of Cov 19 (Or some new bug we don't know about yet (but the gov do)


8. Flu


9. Big market crash


10. Tsunami from Cumbre Vieja.


11. Massive volcanic eruption somewhere on the planet (then we will have a cold winter and the models will be out the window.


12. WW III


13. Asteroid Apophis hits us (but that's in bout 80,000 years.) in the mean time something as big will hit us before then

Lettuce hat removed.

 

Happy days 

 

P.s So I'm probably better off living in the "now!" ;)

According to the CFS long range model the first half of the winter or 1/3 of it (December) looks average and colder than average for Scandinavia which is unlike the CFS and this is only month 2. Usually with average CFS monthly forecasts (which is rare) would denote a signal for colder than average weather as they do usually have a mild bias and looking at longer range models as well it appears December looks like the best prospect for cold and snow - furthermore we will be in a La Nina as well with usually tends to favor front loaded winter and we are well over-due a cold and snowy December to remember!? Still a long way off but the fact the CFS is picking up on average temperatures/no signal and or colder than average for Scandinavia is something to keep a close eye on.

There's no science to this but Ill keep a close eye on the models leading up and beyond Xmas, and so with my wet lettuce hat on I'd say a lot of snow.

1. We're due for an a good icing (It's been a while)


2. When everything seems to be going tlts up.


3. No food on the shelves.


4. Shortage of plumbers


5. Gas shortages.


6. Probably power cuts.


7. Return of Cov 19 (Or some new bug we don't know about yet (but the gov do)


8. Flu


9. Big market crash


10. Tsunami from Cumbre Vieja.


11. Massive volcanic eruption somewhere on the planet (then we will have a cold winter and the models will be out the window.


12. WW III


13. Asteroid Apophis hits us (but that's in bout 80,000 years.) in the mean time something as big will hit us before then

Lettuce hat removed.

 

Happy days 

 

P.s So I'm probably better off living in the "now!" ;)

If we could run that list in reverse order it'd solve a lot of problems in the world  Then again, we wouldn't experience the icy start. So'ds law, that 

There's no science to this but Ill keep a close eye on the models leading up and beyond Xmas, and so with my wet lettuce hat on I'd say a lot of snow.

1. We're due for an a good icing (It's been a while)


2. When everything seems to be going tlts up.


3. No food on the shelves.


4. Shortage of plumbers


5. Gas shortages.


6. Probably power cuts.


7. Return of Cov 19 (Or some new bug we don't know about yet (but the gov do)


8. Flu


9. Big market crash


10. Tsunami from Cumbre Vieja.


11. Massive volcanic eruption somewhere on the planet (then we will have a cold winter and the models will be out the window.


12. WW III


13. Asteroid Apophis hits us (but that's in bout 80,000 years.) in the mean time something as big will hit us before then

Lettuce hat removed.

 

Happy 

 

P.s So I'm probably better off living in the "now!" ;)

Sounds like an average day in certain parts of Aberdeen... 😂