UK Met global 10km model will shortly be updating fully on TWO:

0 to 120 hours, 1 hour

123 to 144 hours, 3 hour

160 to 168 hours, 6 hours

Data from the 00z run is here currently: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx

Charts: Max temp, Min temp, Dew point, Cloud cover, Wind gust

I'll be adding in a few more.

This is in ADDITON to:

UKV here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx

UK Met global broad scale views: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx

 

 

 

---

GEFS 12Z London ensembles bring the first 1 on the snow row of the season

GEFS 12Z London ensembles bring the first 1 on the snow row of the season

Not the first. There was one on 02/10:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=London#London

 

---

WX summary charts still cool cros W Europe for the time of year but milder air affecting W coasts incl UK in week 2 and  colder in the far N, Drt week 1, more rain esp in W week 2

Jet - loop running N of Uk though more fragmented than previously forecast until ca. Sun 17th when the upstream meander moves across from the west and the new loop eventually encloses Uk from the S

GFS - HP centred close to Uk for 2 weeks, a bit of retreat to W Tue 12th to allow cooler air from N and later around Sun 17th  a move to the E with milder air from S finally collapsing with trough over all Uk Sat 23rd

GEFS - a little above norm to Mon 11th, cooler to Fri 15th (more extreme in N), then the usual scatter with mean near norm, op above that and control below. Some rain beginning to show Mon 18th (sooner and heavier in NW where also a few isolated peaks before that). 

ECM - like GFS but makes more of the N-lies Tue 12th and is reluctant to get rid of them (though weaker) even by Sat 16th

Norwich, Newcastle and Aberdeen have a 1 in the snow row at end of run, Inverness 2s or 3s at that time

 

---

Looking like it will be a mild high rather than a cold high for most of the month.

---

wx summary shows focus of below average temps moving down to form a cold pool in the Balkans (and a rain pool too) while the UK still hanging on to mildness esp in the SW. Winter is approaching so blue colours over the Norwegian mountains are seasonal, not unusually cold. Dry for UK week 1, wet all over week 2 suggesting that HP for the whole month (see post above) may be optimistic.

Jet - currently a S-ward dipping loop in the Atlantic promotes a N-ward rising loop over the UK. Both fade around Sat 16th, then a new S-ly dipping loop over UK by Wed 20th with some powerful streaks on its trailing edge esp at end of run Sun 24th

GFS - current broad area of Hp narrowing to a centre over UK for most of next week to Sat 16th (N-lies down N Sea still there but less potent than y'day's run) .Then a W-ly regime for a while with LP on Atlantic becoming dominant from Wed 20th and moving in to be centred over scotland 975mb Fri 22nd

GEFS - mild to Mon 11th, cool to Fri 15th more marked in N), then most runs above norm to Thu 21st declining at end. The number of runs with rain increasing after Sun 17th (heavier in NW), dry until then

ECM - similar to GFS but slight difference in position of HP promotes N Sea N-lies; and also higher pressure across the S during the W-ly spell.

---

Has anyone seen the latest CFS model forecast for the stratosphere at 10hpa?

It starts off cold at -60c around 03z and then finishes around -45c @ +384z. Not a SSW by any means but a warming for sure and very unusual to see it turn warmer than average towards the latter stages of October at a time when the stratosphere is meant to be cooling rapidly and the PV strengthening.

I've got full access to the raw data from it but I rarely bother looking. In all honesty I think the GEFS and ECM are far more useful at the 30 day range. At the seasonal level I watch C3S of which CFS is now a component. 

---

 

I've got full access to the raw data from it but I rarely bother looking. In all honesty I think the GEFS and ECM are far more useful at the 30 day range. At the seasonal level I watch C3S of which CFS is now a component. 

The GEFS 35 dayer is averaging around the seasonal norm but this may well be hiding fluctuations between cool and mild interludes. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

 

---

ECM is showing high pressure holding on in the south of the UK with potential for another mild/very mild spell in a few days time. GFS ops late cold burst is rather an outlier but perhaps signs of some more potent cold later in the month?

---

ECM is showing high pressure holding on in the south of the UK with potential for another mild/very mild spell in a few days time. GFS ops late cold burst is rather an outlier but perhaps signs of some more potent cold later in the month?

This current HP had been very poor with over cast cold weather and not warm 20C they were touting for Birmingham which in reality is 14C.    I would like to see the HP move away if does not provide sunny weather as we got more sunshine during the LP days. 

There is a definite colder cluster on the 06z GEFS between the 21 and 22 Oct. It's nothing major but it will be very interesting to see if we do have a mini cold snap around then. It would be notable simply because there has been hints over the last few days and it would be impressive that it was picked up so far out.

---

00z and 12z UK Met 10km model with all the time steps available is now updating on TWO. The page has information on time steps and resultion.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx

 

---

Looking hopeful for a decent cool down in North Eastern Europe this year early on....Will always be fearful of high to our SW exerting too much influence UK and Euroslug but feeling a bit more optimistic this year ....decent cold in UK will put the lights outs I reckon be the icing on the cake..

---

Summary charts continue with Uk (esp the SW) still benefiting from atlantic mildness while most of Europe below seasonal temp; and some proper wintry stuff around Lapland in week 2 though perhaps not out of the way there. Dry for Uk week 1, damp in week 2 though not as much as y'day's chart

GFS - HP persisting over UK to Wed 20th (though while over Eire Wed 13th some cool stuff from N on N Sea coasts). Lp then pushes in from the W but fades rapidly (unlike y'day) and HP is shown re-asserting itself in the W by Mon 25th

GEFS - mean temp dropping to below seasonal norm ca Wed 13th, then a period above (highest on 20th; control a cold outlier for E locations) before dropping back )op is the cold outlier this time). Moderate rain from about Wed 20th onward.

ECM - similar to GFS though HP declines SE-wards a day or two before Wed 20th

 

---

00z and 12z UK Met 10km model with all the time steps available is now updating on TWO. The page has information on time steps and resultion.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx

 

These are going to be fantastic resources as we head into the winter period Brian. 

Thank you :-) 

---

decent cold in UK will put the lights outs I reckon be the icing on the cake..

Your cake maybe, but certainly not mine given current predicaments.

---

Your cake maybe, but certainly not mine given current predicaments.

Indeed - makes you wonder sometimes!

Looking hopeful for a decent cool down in North Eastern Europe this year early on....Will always be fearful of high to our SW exerting too much influence UK and Euroslug but feeling a bit more optimistic this year ....decent cold in UK will put the lights outs I reckon be the icing on the cake..

Have I read this correctly, you actually want power cuts?!?

---

 

Have I read this correctly, you actually want power cuts?!?

I think the only possible benefit of such a dreadful outcome would be the penny dropping for millions of people that the government are utterly incompetent in thinking ahead ( let alone in governing in the now), and that their wealth of incompetence includes their whole energy policy. No doubt Johnson’s weasel words and bluster will attempt shift the blame back to the last Opposition government , or blame the Russians. While a few more intelligent people will ask why the lights are not going out across most of Europe …

---

wx summary temps as before - something of a cold pool developing over Europe with the UK on the fringe and benefiting from Atlantic influence; not as cold as shown y'day over far N Europe. Forecast amounts of rain continue to vary for the UK after a consistent dry week 1; today most of UK with significant rain week 2

Jet - looping N around the Uk until Sat 16th, then less organised for a couple of days before pulses from the W or NW appear until Tue 26th, less of a loop than shpwn y'day, now more direct flows.

GFS - Hp centred near or over UK until Fri 15th, then slowly retreating S-wards before a W-ly pattern  sets in, with a briefly deeper trough crossing the UK Sat/sun 23/24th (1000 mb Orkney)

GEFS - cool to Fri 15th (cold on E coast), then mean close to norm throughout with a hint of milder at first and cooler later (more than a hint in Scotland). Significant rain from about Tue 19th (from a few days earlier in Scotland)

ECM -  agrees generally with GFS

---