Interesting looking chart for Sunday on the GFS 12z...

I was just about to post on that matter myself. Would be seriously nasty if that happened but it's 6 days out. But would a depression normally deepen explosively like that when actually over the UK? Don't they usually deepen rapidly in the 1-2 days prior to hitting us?

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I was just about to post on that matter myself. Would be seriously nasty if that happened but it's 6 days out. But would a depression normally deepen explosively like that when actually over the UK? Don't they usually deepen rapidly in the 1-2 days prior to hitting us?

They normally do yes - but all things are possible. Couple of models now going down the explosive deepening route over/very near the UK.

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They normally do yes - but all things are possible. Couple of models now going down the explosive deepening route over/very near the UK.

Your quote right John. Also, I noticed this modelled yesterday as well. It’s one to watch, and if it came as progged would be seriously worrying.

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I've increased the range of UKV charts available on TWO.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx

Snow depth, precipitation type, fog fraction, dew point, relative humidity and wind streamlines can now be viewed. I'll probably make some formatting changes to the precip type chart in the near future.

 

 

The UKV offering on TWO has been upgraded: New charts are Dew point, Rel humidity, Fog fraction, Precip type, Snow depth. Improved: Wind mean has streamlines https://t.co/wnjqCg7wBI [Note: I'm still integrating the new scripts so there could be delays or missed runs] pic.twitter.com/5ydUcdzG2p

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) September 27, 2021

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I've increased the range of UKV charts available on TWO.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx

Snow depth, precipitation type, fog fraction, dew point, relative humidity and wind streamlines can now be viewed. I'll probably make some formatting changes to the precip type chart in the near future.

 

 

The UKV offering on TWO has been upgraded: New charts are Dew point, Rel humidity, Fog fraction, Precip type, Snow depth. Improved: Wind mean has streamlines https://t.co/wnjqCg7wBI [Note: I'm still integrating the new scripts so there could be delays or missed runs] pic.twitter.com/5ydUcdzG2p

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) September 27, 2021

Looks awesome. Thank you sooooo much Brian.

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Briefly - I'm on holiday -

Summary - see yesterday though drier in week 2 in the S  cool/cold air getting down to the Alps (maybe an early snowfall) and while UK is on th edge of this it's not immune. Plenty of rain for UK esp in the W

Jet -strong flow from W resolving into loop round UK Mon 4th then more directly across the N, weakening and moving away after Tu 12th

GFS - procession of Atlantic LP to Wed 6th, then HP slowly developing from SE to cover all UK by Mon 11th

GEFS - cool to Thu 7th, then mean near norm though op & control very warm for S. Rain plentiful this week, decreasing but still around after

ECM - similar to GFS though LP stays in Atlantic and throws troughs forward rather than moving through

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Briefly - I'm on holiday -

Summary - see yesterday though drier in week 2 in the S  cool/cold air getting down to the Alps (maybe an early snowfall) and while UK is on th edge of this it's not immune. Plenty of rain for UK esp in the W

Jet -strong flow from W resolving into loop round UK Mon 4th then more directly across the N, weakening and moving away after Tu 12th

GFS - procession of Atlantic LP to Wed 6th, then HP slowly developing from SE to cover all UK by Mon 11th

GEFS - cool to Thu 7th, then mean near norm though op & control very warm for S. Rain plentiful this week, decreasing but still around after

ECM - similar to GFS though LP stays in Atlantic and throws troughs forward rather than moving through

Thanks DEW, as always.
Have a good holiday. 

Have a good holiday DEW!  

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I've increased the range of UKV charts available on TWO.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx

Snow depth, precipitation type, fog fraction, dew point, relative humidity and wind streamlines can now be viewed. I'll probably make some formatting changes to the precip type chart in the near future.

 

 

The UKV offering on TWO has been upgraded: New charts are Dew point, Rel humidity, Fog fraction, Precip type, Snow depth. Improved: Wind mean has streamlines https://t.co/wnjqCg7wBI [Note: I'm still integrating the new scripts so there could be delays or missed runs] pic.twitter.com/5ydUcdzG2p

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) September 27, 2021

Great resource Brian, much appreciated. 

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bit of snow on the latest gfs run for the weekend for the peaks

 

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Summaries continuing cool for N/NW Europe with rain in Atlantic coastal countries , more than yesterday for week 2 in UK

GFS - continuing sucession of LPs, vicious on Sun 3rd (965mb Edinburgh)  moves away N then ex Hurricane Sam takes up position to NW with SW-lies for all and some warmer HP for SE by Fri 8th Then zonal for a bit before LP Fair Isle 975 mb Thu 14th.

GEFS - mostly cool to Thu 7th then mean near norm but very variable, op & control back down after yesterday. Heavy rain at times for a week, persisting but less intense after

ECM similar to GFS except LP Fri 8th arises without help from Sam

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wx summary - weather still blowing in from Atlantoc for next 2 weeks, cool (really cold for Norway week2) and wet (for all of UK week 1, patchy in week 2)

GFS - LP developing and moving to E Scotland 975mb Sun 3rd, hanging around still in N  Sea Wed 6th; briefly HP for S with W-lies then new LP 00-mb NE Scotland Tue 12th; again brief spe;; of HP before next LP heads for Cornwall Sat 16th

GEFS - temps up and down but mostly cool to Tu 7th after which little agreement though mean stays near norm. Rain in heavt bursts for a week, then still damp but less so

ECM - similar to GFS though the follow-on to Sun takes LP across England to the N Sea; then LP on Tue 12th looks as if it will deepen further W before moving across Scptland

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wx summary - weather still blowing in from Atlantoc for next 2 weeks, cool (really cold for Norway week2) and wet (for all of UK week 1, patchy in week 2)

GFS - LP developing and moving to E Scotland 975mb Sun 3rd, hanging around still in N  Sea Wed 6th; briefly HP for S with W-lies then new LP 00-mb NE Scotland Tue 12th; again brief spe;; of HP before next LP heads for Cornwall Sat 16th

GEFS - temps up and down but mostly cool to Tu 7th after which little agreement though mean stays near norm. Rain in heavt bursts for a week, then still damp but less so

ECM - similar to GFS though the follow-on to Sun takes LP across England to the N Sea; then LP on Tue 12th looks as if it will deepen further W before moving across Scptland

Looks very unsettled and has done so on repeated outlook. Normal October fare! 

 

Looks very unsettled and has done so on repeated outlook. Normal October fare! 

I was hoping for a continuation of the kind September as we go into October, that's now extremely unlikely with bouts of rain and gale force southerlies for at least a week. 

I'm already bored of this Autumn and it's only just barely started with this being our lives for the next 7 months. 

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I was hoping for a continuation of the kind September as we go into October, that's now extremely unlikely with bouts of rain and gale force southerlies for at least a week. 

I'm already bored of this Autumn and it's only just barely started with this being our lives for the next 7 months. 

Don't forget the SSW event that they've already forecast for December 

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Don't forget the SSW event that they've already forecast for December 

That old chestnut 

 

Don't forget the SSW event that they've already forecast for December 

I think it was established that certain SSWs actually increase the chance of mild weather in the UK. I posted links to the paper/s last winter. 

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The 12z builds a lovely high smack bang over the UK for next weekend. 

*BANK* 

Would be very 'mists and mellow fruitfulness' 

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The 12z builds a lovely high smack bang over the UK for next weekend. 

*BANK* 

Would be very 'mists and mellow fruitfulness' 

It all depends on what hurricane sam does.At the moment its anyones guess as to what happens in a weeks time.

wx summary - continuing autumnal with every sign of Atlantic influence, some signs of warmer and drier towards the SE in week 2

jet - looping around the UK until Sat 8th then setting up as a stream running SW-NE close to or over NW Scotland

GFS - LP regime continues; Sun 3rd 975 mb E Scotland, 990mb Tue 5th NI, then ex-hurricane Sam passing between Scotland and Iceland Sat 9th but with enough space to pump up warmth and HP over England and (just about ) Scotland for the week after though SW-liess affect NW Scotland & NI at times.

GEFS - still some big rain totals and mostly cool to Wed 6th after which mean close to norm and drier - op & control really warm and dry from Mon 11th but this isn't true for all runs.- and W esp NW locations continuing wet

ECM - less positive than GFS - LP on Tue 5th deeper and close to SW England, remains of Sam over the Hebrides Sat 9th and any HP pushed S into France

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