Screw 62/3, I'd be happy with an 81/2, an 09/10 or a 10/11.

 

I was thinking along the lines of the winter 1683 - 1684 or perhaps a tad chillier...

Interesting Tweet from Marco Petanga

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1439322652208943112?s=19

I wonder how this winter will pan out?!

Cold and snowy would be 😍

What about a new winter index for most disappointing season? The number of days between the first posting of Snowmageddon and the forst post of 'winter is over'.

WX summary similar to yesterday but with cooler weather really dipping into NW Europe in week 2 WX summaries implying a westerly typeof weather for the next 2 weeks - cool air spreading across Europe N of the Alps 

Jet starts out much as yesterday (i.e. N of Scotland to Sat 25th) then waving and looping across England throughout with just a brief lull Sat 2nd

GFS op - W-lies at first with pressure quite high over UK to Sun 26th then trough from LP up towards Iceland covering much of UK to Fri 1st before HP to SE brings in SW-lies switching to S/SE as LP moves towards SW England Wed 6th

GEFS in the S warm to Sun 26th then most runs cool/cold to Sun 3rd before back to seasonal norm. Rain frequent but not heavy from Mon 27th onwards. Similar temp profile in Scotland but rather more rain esp in W

ECM holds the trough from Sun 26th  further W so could be fine and warm for E coast until Wed 29th when the trough resolves into LP centre moving SE to southern N Sea 1005 mb Fri 1st, pushing any HP up to Lapland

wx summary - temps fit a pattern of W/NW winds blowing in from the Atlantic, UK getting average temps but C/E europe getting cold from the NW. Rain in the W of the UK this week, more general in week 2,continent (bar the Alps & Italy on the dry side)

Jet - much as yesterday. Some more extreme development of loops with alternating N-S flow later on

GFS op - Hp establishing over UK this week but giving way to Atlantic trough Sun 26th which deepens Wed 29th as it moves through followed by another Sat 2nd. and again Mon 4th, the last coming well south. Narrow ridge of HP to end the sequence from Wed 6th

GEFS - warm to Mon 27th (a brief cool dip in N), cool to Sat 2nd, lot of choice thereafter with op & control in opposite directions. Significant rain on most days from 27th

ECM - the first trough (compared to GFS) stands off and brings up warmth from the S but then re-invents itself and arrives as deeper & earlier LP 975 mb Hebrides Fri 1st

wx summary as yesterday - temps fit a pattern of W/NW winds blowing in from the Atlantic, UK getting average temps but C/E europe getting cold from the NW. Rain in the W of the UK this week, more general in week 2,continent (bar the Alps & Italy on the dry side) but the cool weather and rain getting further S into Europe

Jet - current strong  flow near N Scotland folding up into a loop round the UK Mon 27th, resuming strong  W-ly Sat 2nd and visiting first the S of UK, then the N then back S again by Sat 9th. Unsettled.

GFS op - W-ly regime for now but trough extending S from Iceland Mon 27th with it and successors traversing E across Uk to Dat 9th. Brief areas of HP in between, Thu 30th, Mon 4th, possibly Sat 9th

GEFS -warm (except a one-day cold blast tomorrow for Scotland) descending to cool Mon 27th and then below seasonal norm to Mon 4th, uncertain suggestions of back to norm after that. Rain from Mon 27th onward, increasing in intensity and frequency as time goes on. 

ECM - similar to GFS with minor differences in timing (+/- a day) and extent S-wards of LP (the S coast fares better under ECM)

Review will be late this morning

WX summary shows temps in layers from N Norway (cold) through latitude of UK (mild) to the Med (warm) though nothing unusual for the time of year. Rain mostly in countries on Atlantic seaboard notably W/NW of UK.

Jet as yesterday strong  flow near N Scotland folding up into a loop round the UK Mon 27th, resuming strong  W-ly Sat 2nd and visiting first the S of UK, then the N then back S again by Sat 9th but with the added twist that Sat9th the W-ly flow develops a loop round the UK

GFS - a controlling LP near Iceland generates W/SW winds this week with troughs in the flow crossing the UK Wed 29th, Sat 2nd, Wed 6th and then a deep LP forms to the SW moving to Bristol Channel 980mb Sun 10th

GEFS - warm to Mon 27th, cool to Sat 2nd, lots of variation thereafter with mean a little above norm (op & control in S are warm at first, less so in N). Rain from, Mon 27th onwards esp in W with emphasis midweek to end of that week

ECM - as GFS to Sat 2nd but then produces an extra LP off SW Ireland 980mb Mon 4th

wx summaries - as yesterday and the day before - with some early cold air added over NE Russia in wek  2

jet - more of a looping patter than yesterday, loops coming S over UK Tue28th, Sun 3rd, Thu 7th, Mon 11th

GFS - troughs moving W in the general flow Tue/Wed 28th/29th, Sun/Mon 3rd/4th staying around to Thu 7th thus matching above but the last stays in the Atlantic and with HP over Norway offers warmth from the S Mon 11th

GEFS - cool frm Mon 27th - Thu 1st after which (a bit later in Scotland) mean is close to/above norm but runs vary wildly. Rain around generally, most likely either side of Mon 3rd, more in the N

ECM - after Wed 29th, the procession of troughs is replaced by LP NW of Ireland, static to Mon 4th and the developing a secondary LP over Biscay

WX summary continues to show cool air blowing in from the west across Europe N of the Alps (though the really cold stuff to the NE has gone from this morning's chart) Rain affecting NW Europe for 2 weeks notably including UK.

Jet - complex pattern of loops and streaks for the next 2 weeks but never leaving the south of the UK

GFS - troughs and LPs moving across from the west until Sat 9th, deeper for the S than yesterday notably 1005mb E Anglia Wed 29th, 980mb NI Sat 2nd, 975mb Channel Mon 4th, 975mb Wed 6th Wales. Then LP Mon 11th stays W of Ireland with S/SW-lies

GEFS - cool from tomorrow and mean temps only slowly (slower than yesterday) recovering to norm, op & control on cool side until Fri 8th. Plenty of rain esp all the first week of October (front-loaded  in Scotland, later in the S)

ECM - LPs to Sat 2nd run further N, and that on Mon 4th doesn't really develop

Even with all the wind and rain this week, still average temps down here in the south. It takes very specific synoptics to get cool/cold conditions these days.

It looks like some large rainfall totals are being hinted at. Is this yet another situation where we are flipping from a drought to a washout with little in between? It seems to be happening very often.

Could well be yes - April to May and then May to June saw dramatic flips in the rainfall totals .

Well after a wonderfully warm and sunny September.  The wind and rain has arrived.  It had to happen sooner or later. And the outlook is very Autumnal. 

wx summaries show cool/cold air getting down to the Alps (maybe an early snowfall) and while UK is on th edge of this it's not immune. Plenty of rain for UK esp in the W

GFS - procession of LPs and troughs across the country - no point in detailing them all, if you haven't got one today ther'll be another along tomorrow - until N-S ridge of HP Fri 8th +/- 1 day after which LP resumes though a bit more to the NW

GEFS - up and down but generally cool to Fri 8th after which[erhaps something nearer norm. Rain all the time, heaviest in the coming week, front=loaded in the N

ECM  - same as GFS

Both models pick out hurricane Sam moving N to Greenland Mon 4th - ECM suggests that it may have a greater effect on N Atlantic than does GFS

I never thought I'd say this again, but similar to near the end of summer 1976 (end of August. I know this for sure cos I was one of several bricklayers building a new fire station in Cymmer South Wales, and the same as last night, the wind and rain blew over a (quite high) side wall and damaged/crushed all the scaffolding. Hence to say we had another few weeks extra work before being layed off) I'm reasonably happy the rain (not the wind) arrived last night. but kept it kept us awake most of the night, well till 6am this morning :)