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Offline Brian Gaze  
#1 Posted : 26 July 2021 15:35:42(UTC)
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Offline cultman1  
#2 Posted : 26 July 2021 19:14:51(UTC)
cultman1

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Location: Fulham London SW6

The output for the SE does not look promising over the next week or so despite today Monday being a very pleasant Summer's day. Are there any signs of an improvement materialising as we go into August? Certainly temperatures after today seem to take quite a dip for this time of the year.
Online Taylor1740  
#3 Posted : 26 July 2021 19:27:48(UTC)
Taylor1740

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Very tight spread on the GEFS right out to the 10th of August for the relatively cool and unsettled conditions. An unusually high level of confidence in the outlook for the next 2 weeks at least. Could become quite a boring period of model watching.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline TimS  
#4 Posted : 26 July 2021 19:32:09(UTC)
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Location: Brockley

Yes, unusually high level of confidence is the word. Looks like a pattern has locked in and will be with us for a while. At either end of that overall pattern though there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty on the ground. It could be a NW/SE split with fairly dry conditions down here, or wet and windy everywhere.

The latest from Judah Cohen hints at the overall pattern persisting for most of August.

https://www.aer.com/scie...ther/arctic-oscillation/

Seeing as my holiday this year is in the Channel Is I really need it to be the NW/SE split version rather than the wet and windy everywhere one.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline DEW  
#5 Posted : 27 July 2021 06:58:24(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Jet - a rather disorganised loop dipping well south into France to Wed 4th; then briefly more direct across the UK before a tighter loop around the UK for the week of Mon 9th (with the UK on the 'wrong' side.


WX summaries continuing cool and (esp in NW) wet through the next two weeks


GFS - LP 1000mb NE England Thu 29th moving slowly E-wards leaving a legacy of light N-ly winds as HP sits off to the SW. That HP moves in Mon 2nd but is displaced by a new trough reaching W Scotland 995mb Fri 6th and an even deeper one 990mb N Ireland Tue 10th. Although the centre moves steadily E, again it leaves a trough hanging back with N/NE winds


GEFS - continuing cool (perhaps a little warmer at the end) with good agreement between runs and intermittent rain in the S through to Thu 12th. In the N, there is heavier rain later this week, then a dry few days, but significant rain resuming around Wed 4th


ECM  - similar to GFS; the HP Mon 2nd is however weaker and more and colder air is imported by the lp on Fri 6th

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Offline Gusty  
#6 Posted : 27 July 2021 07:03:32(UTC)
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An unsettled theme for the UK across the NWP for the next 7-10 days it has to be said. 

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Offline Rob K  
#7 Posted : 27 July 2021 07:16:35(UTC)
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The ECM which had often been the more optimistic model also looks pretty poor this morning it has to be said. I wonder if the Met Office extended outlook which is still talking about more settled conditions for mid August (although these have been pushed back day by day for a week or more now, in the same way the cold weather often is in winter) will finally take a reality check today?

Having said that, though, the actual weather still looks generally better than the charts might suggest, at least over the coming days, which showers fairly few and far between and still plenty of sunshine around.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Offline Northern Sky  
#8 Posted : 27 July 2021 08:07:02(UTC)
Northern Sky

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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
The ECM which had often been the more optimistic model also looks pretty poor this morning it has to be said. I wonder if the Met Office extended outlook which is still talking about more settled conditions for mid August (although these have been pushed back day by day for a week or more now, in the same way the cold weather often is in winter) will finally take a reality check today?

Having said that, though, the actual weather still looks generally better than the charts might suggest, at least over the coming days, which showers fairly few and far between and still plenty of sunshine around.


That's exactly what I was thinking this morning. It all depends on your preferences of course but viewing the GFS this morning it looks ok to me - sunshine and showers, temps around 18 - 22C no great washout. I can put up with that. 

Online RobN  
#9 Posted : 27 July 2021 09:16:30(UTC)
RobN

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United Kingdom
Location: South East Gloucestershire

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky Go to Quoted Post


 


That's exactly what I was thinking this morning. It all depends on your preferences of course but viewing the GFS this morning it looks ok to me - sunshine and showers, temps around 18 - 22C no great washout. I can put up with that. 



Indeed. GEFS at least looks OK.


Just enough rain to keep the garden ticking over



 


and temperatures in the "comfort zone"


 



 


though a tad breezy at times


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Rob
Most of the time in south east Gloucestershire near the River Thames 75m ASL.
Offline Chunky Pea  
#10 Posted : 27 July 2021 09:27:49(UTC)
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Ireland
Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky Go to Quoted Post


 


That's exactly what I was thinking this morning. It all depends on your preferences of course but viewing the GFS this morning it looks ok to me - sunshine and showers, temps around 18 - 22C no great washout. I can put up with that. 



The Azores high is gaining momentum yet again in the extended (beyond day 10) last few EC runs. I really don't want to see another repeat of what we had the last two weeks, but it is precisely because I don't want it to happen that most likely probably will. 

Offline Rob K  
#11 Posted : 27 July 2021 12:26:28(UTC)
Rob K

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Location: Northeast Hampshire

6Z GFS mean shows more HP influence across the south in the latter stages, hoping for the trend to continue.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Offline Saint Snow  
#12 Posted : 27 July 2021 12:45:53(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Where's the previous Model Output thread disappeared to???

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

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Offline Sevendust  
#13 Posted : 27 July 2021 12:52:34(UTC)
Sevendust

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Location: Alton, Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post


Where's the previous Model Output thread disappeared to???



I think Brian got fed up with the nonsense being posted!


Anyway, cutting through the trees of the latest output it looks like being mainly gently unsettled for much of the time in the south, albeit with cool uppers. That said, conditions on the ground are likely to be often useable whereas less so to the north and west nearer to any low pressure. 

Dave
Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps
Online Taylor1740  
#14 Posted : 27 July 2021 19:43:51(UTC)
Taylor1740

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Location: Leeds

Proper Northern blocking type set up later on in the ECM run. And the first sub -5c 850s for a while appearing to the East of Greenland. Looks more like a November/December chart than mid Summer.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline moomin75  
#15 Posted : 27 July 2021 20:35:08(UTC)
moomin75

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Posts: 5,865

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 Go to Quoted Post
Proper Northern blocking type set up later on in the ECM run. And the first sub -5c 850s for a while appearing to the East of Greenland. Looks more like a November/December chart than mid Summer.
August  at least the first 10 days or so is indeed looking a total write off. Given the BBC update, I daresay the whole month will be terrible. And if it is a write off, given that the summer is where much of my livelihood comes from, it'll end up costing me a few thousand pounds.


After the ravages of last summer when the first Covid lockdown coincided with glorious weather during which I could have earned my living, but no cricket was allowed, this last 15 months has been an unmitigated disaster for me personally......My career is almost destroyed because of the last 15 months and I fail to see any reason to be cheerful, given that a wet August, at the height of my coaching season, looks to be heading down the pan.


People wonder why I am so depressed.....Well this is the reason. My livelihood is in tatters this summer due to rain and last summer due to Covid-19. You couldn't make it up.

Edited by user 27 July 2021 20:40:18(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Offline Sevendust  
#16 Posted : 27 July 2021 21:20:00(UTC)
Sevendust

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
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Location: Alton, Hampshire

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


August  at least the first 10 days or so is indeed looking a total write off. Given the BBC update, I daresay the whole month will be terrible. 



The BBC have done a volte-face with their updates


This reflects the current situation although in truth it may be OK in the south


Too early to write the month off at this stage 

Dave
Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps
Offline ozone_aurora  
#17 Posted : 27 July 2021 21:34:22(UTC)
ozone_aurora

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Location: Sheffield

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


August  at least the first 10 days or so is indeed looking a total write off. Given the BBC update, I daresay the whole month will be terrible. And if it is a write off, given that the summer is where much of my livelihood comes from, it'll end up costing me a few thousand pounds.



Looks like an Autumnal August. August is often an unsettled month. HST, Summer can sometimes return - especially in September (at least in the SE). Let's hope this materialise, as Septembers can produce some of the loveliest weather.

Offline White Meadows  
#18 Posted : 28 July 2021 05:22:22(UTC)
White Meadows

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Location: West Sussex

The heat returns on the latest Gfs Op.
Far too early to pretend August should be written off!
Offline moomin75  
#19 Posted : 28 July 2021 05:46:05(UTC)
moomin75

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Posts: 5,865

Originally Posted by: White Meadows Go to Quoted Post
The heat returns on the latest Gfs Op.
Far too early to pretend August should be written off!


I've just looked through the whole GFS and I think you are mistaken. No heat retuning on the 0Z at all.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Offline White Meadows  
#20 Posted : 28 July 2021 05:57:18(UTC)
White Meadows

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Location: West Sussex

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


 


I've just looked through the whole GFS and I think you are mistaken. No heat retuning on the 0Z at all.


Nice Azores ridge asserting itself from 10th. This would be consistent with the Met office extended outlook. They could be mistaken of course, as they often are. I’m just pointing out what’s being suggested by the available data.

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