I’m convinced that I’ve gone quite a bit too low this month.

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Met Office Hadley   No Update  Yet

Metcheck               15.45c       Anomaly       -0.52c

Netwearther           16.63c       Anomaly       0.13c

Peasedown St John  15.52c      Anomaly       -1.33c.

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I’m convinced that I’ve gone quite a bit too low this month.

Yes, the very mild nights have held up the CET quite nicely (that plus the fact the West has done relatively well).

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Met Office Hadley        17.0c      Anomaly        1.3c provisional to 10th

Metcheck                     15.94c    Anomaly         -0.53c

Netweather                  16.61c    Anomaly         0.12c

Peasedown St John     15.72c    Anomaly      -1.13c.   

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Met Office Hadley       17.0c     Anomaly      1.2c provisional to 11th

Metcheck                    15.96c   Anomaly      -0.51c

Netweather                 16.6c    Anomaly       0.11c

Peasedown St John    15.5c    Anomaly     -1.35c.   

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Is the Hadley number more high-biased than most months this July? Seems well above the other "CETs" on here. Notwithstanding, it's going to rise a reasonable amount before the end of the month so it looks like we should probably end up above average. Probably alongside being wetter and duller than average.

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Starting to see a few genuine heatwave scenarios from the deterministic modelling now.

The GFS 06z was the most impressive yet, with 10 days hitting the mid-high 20s widely, locally low 30s on a few of the days.

Something like that would lift the CET into the upper 10% on record by 26th.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1414592479144329222

 

...but as I stated there, caution is (of course) advised. The models have a habit of getting a bit carried away with a newly emerged signal once they've got hold of it.

Having said that - the propagating MJO is still there in the GEFS predictions. Even EPS are starting to show some appreciable interest now.

This could be enough to drive exactly the kind of tropical cycle that tends to bring the UK a lengthy settled spell with am increasing tendency for high temperatures, as high pressure gradually drifts eastward across the UK and then across the North Sea.

It's not always a one-high process, mind. Sometimes there are exchanges, marked by thundery interludes. ECM 00z showed one of those taking shape at the end of its 00z run.

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I’m convinced that I’ve gone quite a bit too low this month.

I’m quite sure I have and I’ve gone lower than you at 17.2c. 

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I’m quite sure I have and I’ve gone lower than you at 17.2c. 

 

If you have, then I have

 

Nicest way to be wrong, mind - and given we're both in the top third of predictions for the month, it may even improve our league placings.

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If you have, then I have

Nicest way to be wrong, mind - and given we're both in the top third of predictions for the month, it may even improve our league placings.

Yes, I won’t mind if I’ve gone a couple of degrees too low and the output suggests that we’ve all gone too low.  I could say I’m in good company!  

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Yes, I won’t mind if I’ve gone a couple of degrees too low and the output suggests that we’ve all gone too low.  I could say I’m in good company!  

Unfortunately some have gone lower than  others.

I've gone way too low. Will be a poor month for me.

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Met Office Hadley          17.0c       Anomaly        1.1c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                       16.02c     Anomaly        -0.44c

Netweather                    16.59c     Anomaly         0.1c

Peasedown St John     15.8c       Anomaly        -1.05c.  

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Unfortunately some have gone lower than  others.

I've gone way too low. Will be a poor month for me.

That’s not like you Col.  You usually do well but it looks like We’ve all been influenced by previous months.  Could be a bit of a shuffle around the table. 
Edited by user  14 July 2021 05:25:28  | Reason: Not specified