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Offline Global Warming  
#81 Posted : 01 August 2021 10:11:33(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,638
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

No change to last week's update. I am still expecting the CET to come in around 17.7C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was very close with his prediction for this month at 17.72C.

Edited by user 01 August 2021 10:12:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline GezM  
#82 Posted : 01 August 2021 15:04:17(UTC)
GezM

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Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,182
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was very close with his prediction for this month at 17.72C.

 

Well done Whether Idle! I went too low this month. My prediction radar is definitely malfunctioning this year 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Bertwhistle  
#83 Posted : 01 August 2021 17:39:45(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was very close with his prediction for this month at 17.72C.

Well done GW- very accurate forecasting.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Gavin P  
#84 Posted : 02 August 2021 09:56:30(UTC)
Gavin P

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,450
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

 

That was an awesome projection my friend! Nailed it! Well done! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Offline Whether Idle  
#85 Posted : 02 August 2021 19:33:13(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Well done Whether Idle! I went too low this month. My prediction radar is definitely malfunctioning this year 

Hi Gez. The problem is that when you have a month like I did in February IIRC when you’re more than 2c off, it is almost impossible to recover from. I’ve had 2 good months on the trot with a combined error of 0.01c but it is a long year and the weather is IMHO now well and truly messed up so predictions are fraught with extra risk. Just keep plugging away I say. You’re only as good as your luck and your last prediction. Also - thanks to GW for his continuing excellent work on this competition. 

 

Edited by user 02 August 2021 19:51:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline Stormchaser  
#86 Posted : 02 August 2021 20:22:14(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

I know what you mean Whether Idle - while not as impressive as your 0.01 across two months, by my calculations, I'm fairly sure I have the lowest combined error for Mar-Jul... but add January in and I drop to 5th and with the February debacle I'm down in 10th!

This sort of thing has led me to wonder whether a maximum error cap of, say, 2.0°C would encourage more in the way of 'bold' estimates - but I'm not sure it's really fair to make it so that the 'bold ones' have potentially got more to gain than lose relative to others.

Going more than a degree from average for the CET is a heck of a thing really - it's not something that you could reasonably expect to get right reliably. Of course, these days, you've generally got a better chance if you go more than a degree above average than below, but exceptions still happen more than occasionally, as April-May showed us starkly.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Saint Snow  
#87 Posted : 03 August 2021 13:37:41(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,716
Man
Location: St Helens

The league table this month promises to be particularly interesting.

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Whether Idle  
#88 Posted : 03 August 2021 20:13:03(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,074
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

I know what you mean Whether Idle - while not as impressive as your 0.01 across two months, by my calculations, I'm fairly sure I have the lowest combined error for Mar-Jul... but add January in and I drop to 5th and with the February debacle I'm down in 10th!

This sort of thing has led me to wonder whether a maximum error cap of, say, 2.0°C would encourage more in the way of 'bold' estimates - but I'm not sure it's really fair to make it so that the 'bold ones' have potentially got more to gain than lose relative to others.

Going more than a degree from average for the CET is a heck of a thing really - it's not something that you could reasonably expect to get right reliably. Of course, these days, you've generally got a better chance if you go more than a degree above average than below, but exceptions still happen more than occasionally, as April-May showed us starkly.

I understand the 2c cap but having thought about it, my view is it would detract from the raw unadulterated terror of the competition. I think this year many more punters than usual are going to be in with a shout in this competition, mostly as a result of the wobbling gyrations of our weather as the climate system and associated weather adjusts to what is now unfolding in the Arctic. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline Global Warming  
#89 Posted : 04 August 2021 21:08:07(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,638
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Annual CET competition - July update

Here is the July table. We have a new leader! Spring Sun Winter Dread is now in the lead for the first time this year. Whether Idle is the joint biggest climber within the top 10, moving up eight places into sixth. Stormchaser is also up eight places into tenth.

Table

Edited by user 04 August 2021 21:09:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#90 Posted : 05 August 2021 09:15:58(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,437
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I've dropped 10 places - Got way out with this one and the last.

All good fun though.

 

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Saint Snow  
#91 Posted : 05 August 2021 09:28:36(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,716
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Annual CET competition - July update

Here is the July table. We have a new leader! Spring Sun Winter Dread is now in the lead for the first time this year. Whether Idle is the joint biggest climber within the top 10, moving up eight places into sixth. Stormchaser is also up eight places into tenth.

Table

 

 

Cheers, GW.

Very tight this year (or is it like this every year? I forget ) and with the big month to month swings we've had so far in terms of the weather, it could be a volatile run-in

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#92 Posted : 06 August 2021 10:02:04(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

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Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 160
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

Good to be on the summit for the first time in 5 years (I got lucky with my first ever prediction in 2016 IIRC) although leading from the front is not always easy!

The temptation would be to make conservative predictions for the rest of the year but knowing 2021 that may not be so sensible...

Offline Windy Willow  
#93 Posted : 06 August 2021 12:37:34(UTC)
Windy Willow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 550
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Annual CET competition - July update

Here is the July table. We have a new leader! Spring Sun Winter Dread is now in the lead for the first time this year. Whether Idle is the joint biggest climber within the top 10, moving up eight places into sixth. Stormchaser is also up eight places into tenth.

Table

 

Well done everyone & thanks GW.

 

ouch to the drop of 11 places! So m uch swings & roundabouts for me this year lol, Let's see if my guess this month put's me on the bottom 

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline Gusty  
#94 Posted : 06 August 2021 20:46:47(UTC)
Gusty

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Posts: 15,033
Man
Location: Folkestone

Ignore the power of Whether Idle at your peril. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Global Warming  
#95 Posted : 08 August 2021 13:58:46(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,638
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here are the charts for July

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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