This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during June, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard. 

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.  

Historic CET summary for June

1981-2010 14.48C (30 years)   

1991-2020 14.69C (30 years)  

2001-2020 14.88C (last 20 years)  

Last year June was very pleasant with 15.3C. 2017 and 2018 were warmer with both years just reaching 16C. 2015 and 2019 were cooler in the low 14s. Prior to that, 2010-2012 were all in the high 13s.

Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961  

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output    

850s looking well above average. Interestingly there are two splits in the data. On 3 and 4 June, some runs go much cooler while others keep it very warm. The latest operational run sits right in the middle. We also have a split at the end of the run with a cluster of warm runs but also a strong cluster of quite cool runs. So quite a bit of uncertainty. Generally, it looks like this could be the first month of 2021 with a significantly above-average anomaly. Don't forget the ENS only cover the first half of the month.

GEFS

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw= 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) also looks warm with increasing scatter as usual towards the end of the run.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jja-v1.pdf

June looking fairly close to average both from a temperature and rainfall perspective. Maybe a slightly above average chance of a warm month.

Edited by moderator 31 July 2021 13:52:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

I have gone for slightly above average and think,based on model evidence,this is going to be not a bad month and more than likely the best month of the summer. Although not overly hot with temps in the low 20`s it feels a different world than than April and May.

Met Office Hadley        17.7c       Anomaly       4.8c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                     17.15c     Anomaly       3.00c

Netweather                  17.98c     Anomaly       3.89c

Peasedown St John      16.7c      Anomaly      2.2c. 

First look at the June CET tracker. Looking well above average 

A real possibility that the CET could hit 17.0C this month. The last time that happened??..... 1976.

The CET has only exceeded 17C on 4 occasions:

1822  17.1C
1826  17.3C
1846  18.2C
1976  17.0C

Chart 1

Chart 2

Here are the June predictions

Table 1

  Cheers GW!   Looks like I’ve undercooked it though. 

Originally Posted by: Caz

  Cheers GW!   Looks like I’ve undercooked it though. 

I was wrongly expecting a partial extension of the cold stuff we had in April and May. Anyway - it's al good fun.