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June UK temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during June, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard. For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread. Historic CET summary for June 1981-2010 14.48C (30 years) 1991-2020 14.69C (30 years) 2001-2020 14.88C (last 20 years) Last year June was very pleasant with 15.3C. 2017 and 2018 were warmer with both years just reaching 16C. 2015 and 2019 were cooler in the low 14s. Prior to that, 2010-2012 were all in the high 13s. Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961 Direct link to a larger version of the chart Current model output 850s looking well above average. Interestingly there are two splits in the data. On 3 and 4 June, some runs go much cooler while others keep it very warm. The latest operational run sits right in the middle. We also have a split at the end of the run with a cluster of warm runs but also a strong cluster of quite cool runs. So quite a bit of uncertainty. Generally, it looks like this could be the first month of 2021 with a significantly above-average anomaly. Don't forget the ENS only cover the first half of the month. GEFS https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw= https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw= ECM (de Bilt) also looks warm with increasing scatter as usual towards the end of the run. http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png Met Office contingency planners outlook https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jja-v1.pdf June looking fairly close to average both from a temperature and rainfall perspective. Maybe a slightly above average chance of a warm month. Edited by moderator 31 July 2021 13:52:36(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Thank You, GW. Prediction Sent. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 4,672  Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m
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Yes, looking at tonight's GFS, June (or at least the first half of it) could be the first well-above average period of this year so far. It wouldn't surprise me if we have just seen another synoptic "flip" in our weather where we go from one set of persistent conditions to another. Sent my prediction. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,067  Location: West Hants
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I'm already wondering whether I should have gone higher . Main uncertainty is how far north the main high pressure belt locates for the mid-month period. On top of that, it's not a simple relationship between how far north and how warm it is; mid-June easterlies can be anything from fresh to hot! Does appear to be a lot of fine weather on offer for the opening half or so . Even tomorrow through Thu now looks to stay dry for many of us. Turning fresher from the west by Friday but still pleasantly warm for most of us, before a recovery at the weekend, though with a possibility of wet weather moving up from the south for a time (but GFS not well supported on that). |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 1,820 Location: Bournemouth
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I have gone for slightly above average and think,based on model evidence,this is going to be not a bad month and more than likely the best month of the summer. Although not overly hot with temps in the low 20`s it feels a different world than than April and May.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.3c Anomaly 4.5c Provisional to 1st Metcheck 15.99c Anomaly 1.84c Netweather 17.72c Anomaly 3.63c Peasedown St John 15.33c Anomaly 0.83c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.7c Anomaly 4.8c provisional to 2nd Metcheck 17.15c Anomaly 3.00c Netweather 17.98c Anomaly 3.89c Peasedown St John 16.7c Anomaly 2.2c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 25,719 Location: South Cambridgeshire
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I wish I'd gone for something like 16.5C. I've gone way too low.  
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,700   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger  I wish I'd gone for something like 16.5C. I've gone way too low.  
 I went just above average and think the same. Plenty of time for it to change but I hope it doesn’t. |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.2c Anomaly 4.1c provisional to 3rd Metcheck 16.84c Anomaly 2.9c Netweather 17.64c Anomaly 3.55c Peasedown St John 15.38c Anomaly 0.88c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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First look at the June CET tracker. Looking well above average A real possibility that the CET could hit 17.0C this month. The last time that happened??..... 1976. The CET has only exceeded 17C on 4 occasions: 1822 17.1C 1826 17.3C 1846 18.2C 1976 17.0C Chart 1 Chart 2 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.5c Anomaly 3.3c provisional to 4th Metcheck 16.09c Anomaly 1.95c Netweather 16.74c Anomaly 2.65c Peasedown St John 15.11c Anomaly 0.61c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Here are the June predictions Table 1 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Thank you for the charts, GW. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,700   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Cheers GW! Looks like I’ve undercooked it though. 
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Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,067  Location: West Hants
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Wow, didn't expect to have the 6th highest estimate for this month! Given the current outlook, I'm relieved as like Caz and HT I've been thinking I should have gone (even) higher. That might be a bit presumptuous, though. The main reason I didn't go for a month in the 16s is the presence of an active tropical cycle that will inevitably try to bring about a change to cooler and more changeable conditions for the final third of the month. I said try for a reason, though - it's not the only player in town and occasionally, other factors override. We saw that big time in late June 2018. |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 25,719 Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Cheers GW! Looks like I’ve undercooked it though. 
I was wrongly expecting a partial extension of the cold stuff we had in April and May. Anyway - it's al good fun. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 221   Location: Aylesbury, Bucks
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So strange that May and June continue to be the months where we can't seem to get anywhere near records set when Queen Victoria was on the throne . I'm confident both will be smashed in my lifetime though
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 25,719 Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  First look at the June CET tracker. Looking well above average A real possibility that the CET could hit 17.0C this month. The last time that happened??..... 1976. The CET has only exceeded 17C on 4 occasions: 1822 17.1C 1826 17.3C 1846 18.2C 1976 17.0C Chart 1 Chart 2   
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.1c Anomaly 2.9c provisional to 5th Met check 16.23c Anomaly 2.09cNetweather 16.56c Anomaly 2.46cPeasedown St John 16.6c Anomaly 2.1c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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