fairweather
07 August 2021 17:25:16

... or you can have Evening Standard's brilliant interpretation of the charts:-


Forecasters have revealed the dates for when the August heatwave is expected to hit the UK, bringing 30C weather to Britain for two weeks.


A high-pressure system moving from the Mediterranean is set to make its way to Britain in the middle of the month, bringing an end to rainy weather which has been dominating for the past few weeks.


Weather forecaster Netweather’s heat maps show hot air covering Europe from August 19 with temperatures set to rocket to 27C in Bristol and the South West.


Wonderful - obviously from  the Boris school of optimism!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
UncleAlbert
09 August 2021 08:10:27
The Daily Star takes aim at the Met Office, after a meteorologist said the summer had overall been warmer and drier than usual. "These boffins are having a laugh," the paper says. It quotes people on social media who have expressed their disbelief, saying: "This has been the most typically British summer since records began."

The headline begins with 'Do boffins ever look out of their windows'

Well of course, they do.... but as we on here all know, there are far less people looking out windows in the large areas of the country where the best weather has been.
KevBrads1
09 August 2021 13:07:23

"Although Britain will have a three day heatwave from Wednesday, it will be followed by ten days of rain"


That's from today's Times.


What heatwave?


 



MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2021 14:25:52

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


... or you can have Evening Standard's brilliant interpretation of the charts:-


Forecasters have revealed the dates for when the August heatwave is expected to hit the UK



I love this bit, 'revealing' the dates with all the certainty of revelaing the fixtures for the new football season!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2021 14:27:06

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 

The Daily Star takes aim at the Met Office, after a meteorologist said the summer had overall been warmer and drier than usual. "These boffins are having a laugh," the paper says. It quotes people on social media who have expressed their disbelief, saying: "This has been the most typically British summer since records began."

The headline begins with 'Do boffins ever look out of their windows'

Well of course, they do.... but as we on here all know, there are far less people looking out windows in the large areas of the country where the best weather has been.


Or to be more cynical about it, typical SE centricity whereby if it hasn't been a good summer there, it can't have been anywhere else.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Gavin D
09 August 2021 20:32:06

Saturday 14 Aug - Monday 23 Aug


Sunny spells and showers in the far north and cloud and some rain across southwestern areas on Saturday, but elsewhere mainly fine and dry. Showers are likely again across the north and west on Sunday and Monday with some strong winds, but it is expected to be drier in the southeast. Beyond this it is likely to remain changeable; confidence is low in terms of detail, but most places will likely see showers or longer rain spells, interspersed with some drier, more settled periods, these drier periods probably becoming more common toward the end of this period. Strong winds are possible at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures likely to be around average, perhaps warm in the east and southeast.


Tuesday 24 Aug - Tuesday 7 Sep


Although confidence is very low through this period, a general trend towards more settled conditions is likely. Somewhat unsettled and changeable conditions are most likely to remain in place at the start of the period, with these looking to give way to more settled, drier conditions by the end. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the potential for hotter weather later in the month.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Surrey John
10 August 2021 21:14:51

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Saturday 14 Aug - Monday 23 Aug


Sunny spells and showers in the far north and cloud and some rain across southwestern areas on Saturday, but elsewhere mainly fine and dry. Showers are likely again across the north and west on Sunday and Monday with some strong winds, but it is expected to be drier in the southeast. Beyond this it is likely to remain changeable; confidence is low in terms of detail, but most places will likely see showers or longer rain spells, interspersed with some drier, more settled periods, these drier periods probably becoming more common toward the end of this period. Strong winds are possible at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures likely to be around average, perhaps warm in the east and southeast.


Tuesday 24 Aug - Tuesday 7 Sep


Although confidence is very low through this period, a general trend towards more settled conditions is likely. Somewhat unsettled and changeable conditions are most likely to remain in place at the start of the period, with these looking to give way to more settled, drier conditions by the end. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the potential for hotter weather later in the month.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 



This was revised at 15:00 hours today


The first date range has changed location of any warmer weather


the last line about potential for hotter weather has gone


 




Sunday 15 Aug - Tuesday 24 Aug


Moving into this period, showers or longer spells of rain are more likely across the north and west on Sunday and Monday where it may also be breezy. Drier weather is also more likely across the southeast. Moving further into next week and for the rest of the period, high pressure may become more dominant with many areas seeing more settled conditions. However, changeable conditions remain possible across parts of the north and spells of heavy showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out across parts of the south at times. Temperatures expected to be around average for most for this time of year, though with some warmer weather in more settled areas in the south.




Updated:



Wednesday 25 Aug - Wednesday 8 Sep


Confidence is very low through this period. There are signs that the UK will continue to be under the influence of high pressure with settled weather more likely in the south. However, some spells of heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible at times. The north of the UK will probably remain changeable and often unsettled. Temperatures are likely to be overall near or slightly above average.




Updated:

 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Sevendust
10 August 2021 22:27:11

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


 


This was revised at 15:00 hours today


The first date range has changed location of any warmer weather


the last line about potential for hotter weather has gone



Just as there are some hints of the opposite in the ensembles

Gavin D
11 August 2021 10:36:53

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Cooler weather giving way to a warm end of summer.


_________________________________


Wednesday 11 August to – Sunday 15 August


Unsettled, slightly cooler finish to the week.


A low pressure system pushing into the UK from the west this week will keep things unsettled and feeling a little cooler than normal for mid-August. For northern areas, the low pressure centre will bring some bands of heavy rain, strong winds even up to gales on some Scottish coasts, and chances for heavy, thundery showers. Southern areas will tend to be breeze with a stalling cold front keeping it cloudier with patchy rain. Towards the end of the weekend clouds should begin to clear as the low heads east into Scandinavia.


Monday 16 August to – Sunday 22 August


Wet and cool to start but turning dry and warm.


As we make our way into the second half of August (and the final few weeks of meteorological summer), low pressure is likely to become increasingly less influential throughout the week as it shifts away into Scandinavia. High pressure is expected to build in from the southwest, and for the first half of the week this means we will likely see some cooler northerly winds with the wettest weather in the eastern half of the country. From midweek and through the second half of the week, high pressure is expected to be more influential and shift overhead, bringing some increasingly dry, sunny, and warmer days. Temperatures will gradually climb a bit above average for most areas and as we approach late August we can expect some decidedly more summer-like weather for most.


The timing of the arrival of the high is still a little bit uncertain, and our computer models have recently been in some major disagreements on the exact day. However, we are starting to see some encouraging signals for high pressure to arrive in the second half of the week, with cooler, wetter weather for the first half. There is a roughly 30% chance of high pressure arriving a bit earlier, perhaps even as early the start of the working week. This would mean dry, sunny, and warm weather would be present throughout the entire week instead. Confidence is still medium overall due to the inconsistent signals for the timing of high pressure arriving, but we have high confidence that it will arrive eventually and be in place by the weekend.


Monday 23 August to – Sunday 5 September


Warm and dry for a time. Cooler into September.


High pressure is anticipated to arrive late August, and once it moves in, we should enjoy some more summer-like weather for a time. The high will be an extension of the sub-tropical high that lingers near the Azores through summer, so it will bring in some warmer air and sunnier skies. As it sits overhead for a few days, temperatures should quickly climb above average. This final week of August brings the best chances for a lengthy stay of high pressure and with it a slight risk of a heat wave. It's still a bit difficult to pin down the heat chances at the moment, largely due to the persistent inconsistencies in the computer models for this time frame.


In light of the poor performance of the computer models, for September we are leaning more on our historical analogues for guidance. These are where we look at previous years which saw similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe to what we are observing now. For the spring and summer months, some unusually warm waters in the North Pacific and North Atlantic have been proving to be a useful tool, and they support more low pressure systems and a more active storm track for the first month of meteorological autumn.


Therefore, we are anticipating that high pressure later this month will not tend to linger, but rather shift away after around a week or so and build in the Atlantic. This would send low pressure into Scandinavia again, so while this isn't a particularly wet pattern for us, it is still cooler with rain chances increasing in the north and east. September is likely to see more cooler, wetter weather develop later on, but the timing of the high's departure is the biggest uncertainty.


Further ahead


High pressure looks likely in late August, so we will try and determine the risk for late summer heat waves or early autumn rainfall and coolness with better confidence.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook


 

Crepuscular Ray
11 August 2021 11:37:29
A good, well written assessment from the BBC as usual. The author appears much more knowledgeable and literate compared to the equivalent nonsense from the Met Office
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
11 August 2021 12:03:53

Originally Posted by: Col 


I love this bit, 'revealing' the dates with all the certainty of revealing the fixtures for the new football season!



So do I.


I've noticed this word popping up in local/national media outlets around the UK in relation to weather stories. It's almost like the hack who writes it has some inside knowledge us mere mortals can't be allowed to see. I think it's one person farming out the stories to different outlets because the writing style has a fingerprint you can spot a mile off. 


'Adorable' is another overused adjective often used to describe Kates wardrobe/accessories but not to my knowledge for anyone called Meghan.


I won't go on.


 


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Sevendust
11 August 2021 14:56:31

Originally Posted by: NMA 


So do I.


I've noticed this word popping up in local/national media outlets around the UK in relation to weather stories. It's almost like the hack who writes it has some inside knowledge us mere mortals can't be allowed to see. I think it's one person farming out the stories to different outlets because the writing style has a fingerprint you can spot a mile off. 


'Adorable' is another overused adjective often used to describe Kates wardrobe/accessories but not to my knowledge for anyone called Meghan.


I won't go on.


 



Roger Parsons
11 August 2021 15:35:14

Originally Posted by: NMA 


So do I.


I've noticed this word popping up in local/national media outlets around the UK in relation to weather stories. It's almost like the hack who writes it has some inside knowledge us mere mortals can't be allowed to see. I think it's one person farming out the stories to different outlets because the writing style has a fingerprint you can spot a mile off. 


'Adorable' is another overused adjective often used to describe Kates wardrobe/accessories but not to my knowledge for anyone called Meghan.


I won't go on.



"Adorable" is a vile American import - overstated and false enthusiasm and makes me want to vomit! Even "cute" is bad enough.


Actually that's not true - the emotion is closer to mass murder. Grrrr.


You are most welcome to go on.....


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gavin D
11 August 2021 20:52:11

Monday 16 Aug - Wednesday 25 Aug


A showery start to next week is likely with showers most frequent in the north and east of the country where it will also be breezy at times. The best of any drier and sunnier weather across the west and southwest. Moving further into next week and for the rest of the period, high pressure may become more dominant with many areas seeing more settled conditions. However, changeable conditions remain possible across parts of the north and spells of heavy showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out across parts of the south at times. Temperatures expected to be around average for most for this time of year, though with some warmer weather in more settled spells.


Thursday 26 Aug - Thursday 9 Sep


Confidence is very low through this period. There are signs that the UK will continue to be under the influence of high pressure with settled weather more likely in the south. However, some spells of heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible at times. The north of the UK will probably remain changeable and often unsettled. Temperatures are likely to be overall near or slightly above average.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

KevBrads1
12 August 2021 03:58:14

Who writes these Met Office texts? Last evening's text


" giving isolated gales along any coasts or exposed areas."


Isolated gales?  How can you have an isolated gale?


 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
dagspot
12 August 2021 06:16:41
Gail platt in Corrie was isolated in prison once
Neilston 600ft ASL
Roger Parsons
12 August 2021 06:40:22

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Who writes these Met Office texts? Last evening's text


" giving isolated gales along any coasts or exposed areas."


Isolated gales?  How can you have an isolated gales?


 



I supposed it depends if you are walking/cycling upwind or downwind, Kev. .


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
12 August 2021 06:55:48

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Who writes these Met Office texts? Last evening's text


" giving isolated gales along any coasts or exposed areas."


Isolated gales?  How can you have an isolated gales?



I have no idea who writes them.


Forecast for this part of Dorset for this morning:


This morning will bring a dry and sunny start to the day. Later on, cloud is expected to build in from the southwest, but it will remain dry. Feeling warm, with gentle to moderate winds.


On the strength of last nights forecast for the above I headed for the beach at 4am to be greeted with the below.


Cloudy with drizzle.


 


Since you ask  for more Roger.


Love Island fans go wild for Olivia Attwood's new jewellery edit with Abbott Lyon


Christine Lampard's polka dot dress has Lorraine fans positively swooning


The cutest bag Kate Middleton ever carried is finally back in stock 


Victoria star Margaret Clunie promotes husband's woke clothing brand


With last bolded word being my hate of the year.


 


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Gavin D
12 August 2021 19:41:04

Tuesday 17 Aug - Thursday 26 Aug


Often rather cloudy at times through next week with cloud thick enough for outbreaks of light rain from time to time, especially towards the northwest of the UK. Elsewhere, largely dry with some sunny spells although rather windy. Into late August, changeable conditions look likely to continue in the north with showers or outbreaks of rain at times. Towards the southwest higher pressure is expected to be more of an influence, allowing for more settled and drier conditions. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of the year, although there is a chance of some warmer weather in the south if winds turn to an easterly direction. This may also bring the chance of intermittent heavy rain and thundery showers.


Friday 27 Aug - Friday 10 Sep


Similar conditions look likely to continue into this period with higher than average pressure towards the west and southwest of the UK, producing a north-westerly flow. This would likely bring brighter and drier weather in the southwest and more unsettled conditions in the northwest. There is a chance of a warmer easterly flow in the south at times, which may bring the risk of heavy and possibly thundery showers. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average overall. However, confidence is very low through this period.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

richardabdn
14 August 2021 12:14:55

Good to see the local media picking up on how utterly dire and useless the weather forecasts are for this region.


https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/prediction-impossible-why-is-it-so-hard-to-get-the-north-easts-weather-forecast-right/


There are no excuses especially for the recent debacle of constantly forecasting thunderstorms for a region in which they have always been uncommon and now rarer than ever without a single rumble heard all year.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
Users browsing this topic

    Ads