Thought this is an interesting read I'd like to share:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

Very interesting… we will see and with the current forecast energy crisis probably Sod’s law.

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Looks like autumn has indeed arrived in the higher elevations of Aberdeenshire this week:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfjkst9nc#?date=2022-09-25 

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Thought this is an interesting read I'd like to share:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

 

there is an updated version, rather suggests winter in UK will be colder than average

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-early-disruptive-event-winter-influence-united-states-europe-fa/

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*BUMP*

You will all be delighted to know that we are going to have a very mild winter.
How do I know?
Because BBC South Today just said so.
They said that Meteorologists at Reading have forecast a much milder than average winter.
So that's it! Winter is over! 😂😂😂
AND....before I'm jumped on, this is very much a tongue in cheek comment.

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AccuWeather released their winter 2022/23 forecast for Europe:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweather-2022-2023-europe-winter-forecast/1259417

Interesting how the forecast is for snow to be below normal in northern parts of Alps but above in southern parts of Alps like northern Italy etc? Anyway, only to be taken as a pinch of salt!

PS - Sorry for abscene been trying to cope with bereavement and moving house and more...! I am not feeling SO excited about the snow and  weather in general, especially given the soaring gas prices and cost of living I don't think i would want a freeze this winter, but wouldn't say no to some snow on Christmas day...? Maybe we could get it at long last?

 

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Channel 5 Sunday 9pm. Programme about the Great Storm of October 87, 35 years ago.

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Anybody else find the new Met office rainfall radar and cloud graphics awful. They look bad, it's hard to find the animations and what is going on along the bottom with the times and dates. Solid cloud here today but it would be hard to tell looking at their graphics.

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Anybody else find the new Met office rainfall radar and cloud graphics awful. They look bad, it's hard to find the animations and what is going on along the bottom with the times and dates. Solid cloud here today but it would be hard to tell looking at their graphics.

I see what you mean. If there is 100% cloud cover you can see the place names but it's a "Should haver gone to Specsavers" case if you want to see the roads. it seems too smoothed if that makes sense and then pixelated when you zoom in. 

Rainfall. I used to like RainToday before that went but I've got used to Brian's rain radar at the top of the page. 

Temps? The Met site seems if anything to overcook the temps. For example the Met Office say it's currently 16C but my thermometer tells me its 15C. The Windy app site https://www.windy.com/?50.712,-2.291,11 suggests it's 15C too. 

Not related but I used to be able to see tweets etc in UIA etc but I'm now told I need to log in even though I'm logged in. Must be doing something wrong I guess. But not worth worrying about most of the time.

 

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Met office update

Thursday 1 Dec - Thursday 15 Dec
There is a degree of uncertainty in the forecast for this period. The more likely outcome is that conditions will become generally settled as high pressure moves towards or develops near the UK, bringing drier and calmer weather than of late. Temperatures are likely to trend from near average towards below average at times, with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is however a chance that low pressure systems will run to the south of the UK, at least for a time, whilst northern areas remain drier, allowing colder air to become more established further north. This scenario would increase the chance of snow across central areas, with perhaps wintry showers in parts of the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ 

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Met office update

Thursday 1 Dec - Thursday 15 Dec
There is a degree of uncertainty in the forecast for this period. The more likely outcome is that conditions will become generally settled as high pressure moves towards or develops near the UK, bringing drier and calmer weather than of late. Temperatures are likely to trend from near average towards below average at times, with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is however a chance that low pressure systems will run to the south of the UK, at least for a time, whilst northern areas remain drier, allowing colder air to become more established further north. This scenario would increase the chance of snow across central areas, with perhaps wintry showers in parts of the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

not a bad update for some wintry weather

red tops reporting 7” snow tonight for higher parts of Scotland…
Would be surprised if theres any never mind the very specific 7”…
Where do they get this stuff

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Daily Express

UK storm alert: Atlantic mega freeze to blitz Britain with torrential rain and 80mph gales.

The collision between cold and mild air over the North Atlantic will also fire up the jet stream to drag violent low-pressure systems towards Britain. Wet and windy weather will set in through the start of the week with no end in sight this side of winter.

Link

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What the Met Office says about 'Beast from the East' and four inches of snow hitting UK

 

 

The Met Office has debunked theories that the UK is set to see a very wintery turn, with some forecasters predicting a 'Beast from the East' and up to four inches of snow within days. While temperatures have significantly dropped from the unseasonably mild early autumn the country had seen, it doesn't look like we can expect a white winter just yet.

In recent days some meteorologists warned that Britain could be facing a repeat of 2010 into 2011 when the country was crippled in the run up to Christmas with heavy snow and ice, reports The Express. The newspaper also reported indicators of a 'Beast from the East' which would see swathes of freezing weather at the start of December.

Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services told the Express: “There is a change in weather patterns now looking likely at the start of December. If this happens, we are in a classic position to get a cold flow in from the east, and with that, snow, ice and very cold winds. This is an indicator of a Beast from the East, and although it has not woken up fully yet, it is safe to say the beast is opening its eyes.” 

Met Office issues fresh weather warning for heavy rain and strong wind across whole of Wales

However, The Met Office has confirmed to WalesOnline that this is unlikely and that apart from a light dusting of snow possible on the mountains of Scotland, the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff - including Wales.

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What the Met Office says about 'Beast from the East' and four inches of snow hitting UK

Link

 

 

The Met Office has debunked theories that the UK is set to see a very wintery turn, with some forecasters predicting a 'Beast from the East' and up to four inches of snow within days. While temperatures have significantly dropped from the unseasonably mild early autumn the country had seen, it doesn't look like we can expect a white winter just yet.

In recent days some meteorologists warned that Britain could be facing a repeat of 2010 into 2011 when the country was crippled in the run up to Christmas with heavy snow and ice, reports The Express. The newspaper also reported indicators of a 'Beast from the East' which would see swathes of freezing weather at the start of December.

Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services told the Express: “There is a change in weather patterns now looking likely at the start of December. If this happens, we are in a classic position to get a cold flow in from the east, and with that, snow, ice and very cold winds. This is an indicator of a Beast from the East, and although it has not woken up fully yet, it is safe to say the beast is opening its eyes.” 

Met Office issues fresh weather warning for heavy rain and strong wind across whole of Wales

However, The Met Office has confirmed to WalesOnline that this is unlikely and that apart from a light dusting of snow possible on the mountains of Scotland, the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff - including Wales.

 

Haha You have to LOL really they don't half contradict - "Four inches of snow hitting the UK" yet promply say there could just be a light dusting of snow in Scotland and that the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff. - Including Wales."

 

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Haha You have to LOL really they don't half contradict - "Four inches of snow hitting the UK" yet promply say there could just be a light dusting of snow in Scotland and that the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff. - Including Wales."

 

I saw the Metoffice statement. They don't help themselves to be honest.

Looking at the charts at the moment, there is a very real possibility that a significant cold spell occurs this December, possibly as soon as two weeks time. Some output has snow showers pushing in as soon as 10 days from now. All the public will remember is the Metoffice dismissing snow chances for many, not the nuances within the article and the timescales involved.

There was no reason at all to even make the statement, just keep your powder dry and advise as and when needed.

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I saw the Metoffice statement. They don't help themselves to be honest.

Looking at the charts at the moment, there is a very real possibility that a significant cold spell occurs this December, possibly as soon as two weeks time. Some output has snow showers pushing in as soon as 10 days from now. All the public will remember is the Metoffice dismissing snow chances for many, not the nuances within the article and the timescales involved.

There was no reason at all to even make the statement, just keep your powder dry and advise as and when needed.

I think it's a case of poor journalism rather than the Met Office being in the wrong. There is no contradiction by the Met Office themselves, just that their forecast is different to Jim Dale's. In fact the Met Office stated that December 7th is too far away to be certain about any outcome. It looks to me like Wales Online have just taken the Met Office long term forecast and interpreted that. Unless there was some other statement directly in reaction to Jim Dale's? 

Too often these days, lazy journalists just take some weather model output, usually a long time into the future, and make a big headline from it. 

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First time in a long time wintry precipitation forecast on BBC for 9th December. 

This thread had dropped way down the forum. Interesting to see the Met long ranger flagging up possible wintry showers.

UK long range weather forecast
Saturday 3 Dec - Monday 12 Dec
On Saturday, rather cloudy with occasional showers, these most frequent in the east and on southern coasts. Most sunshine will be seen in western and northwestern areas. At the weekend and into the start of next week, showers are likely, mainly in eastern and southeastern areas and perhaps some more persistent rain to the southwest. These may become wintry, but this risk will be mostly confined to higher ground. Towards the end of the period similar conditions are expected to continue with showers present in eastern and southern coastal areas. These also have the potential to become wintry on higher ground. Temperatures are expected to be below average, especially in the south at the start of the period where easterly winds will make it feel somewhat colder.
Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 28 Nov 2022

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Updated, seem to be getting a little bit more wintry each day:

On Sunday, rather cloudy for many with scattered showers, most frequent and heaviest in the east, possibly wintry over hills. Most sunny spells and drier weather will be seen in western areas, with easterly winds strong in places. Into next week, occasional showers will affect the UK, these heaviest and most frequent along eastern coastal areas, with a chance of longer spells of rain for southern UK at times. Showers may become wintry over higher ground, with a risk of sleet over lower levels at times. A continuation of these conditions is favoured towards the end of the period, with precipitation generally most likely in eastern and southern regions. Temperatures will likely be below average, especially in the south where easterly winds may make it feel even colder at times.

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A little upgrade here too:

Confidence is low for this period, but overall settled and relatively dry weather is more likely than stormy weather. At this time of year frost and fog are common, and the chance of these, along with below-normal temperatures and spells of wintry precipitation, is slightly higher than usual. Conversely, heavy rain and strong winds are less likely than in a typical December.

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