That’s too far away to be taken seriously or indeed for any level of forecasting reliability, but at least it is generally positive before then.

 

Agreed anything at that range you can't take too seriously, but at the same time I wouldn't be putting too much faith in a 15c 850s plume at t240 shown in the ECM. There has been almost no sign of any serious heat in the GEFS and other models and we haven't really seen the heat build in Spain/ France yet to any significant extent.

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Yep much warmer ecm by then

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/2021062712/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature/20210707-1200z.html

warmer gfs set for London 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0
gm following similar path

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php
let’s hope it’s a trend 

 

 

 

Much better   ECM by the end its scorchio!

 

Yep ECM op looks hot at the end and there are a few outliers showing on GEFS.

In the meantime GEFS ensembles are running just above normal with a slightly unsettled feel. On the ground that would equate to maxes around 20-25'c so not bad.

ECM, GEM and UKMO still looking very poor really for midsummer on the 0z's.
GFS marginally better, but as I look out on yet another wet day, summer is slipping away.

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Poor output this morning longer term 6 to 10 day range.  Northern blocking    is back pushing jet stream south. Chances of low pressure stalling creating a plume look lower today.

 

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Poor output this morning longer term 6 to 10 day range.  Northern blocking    is back pushing jet stream south. Chances of low pressure stalling creating a plume look lower today.

 

The northern blacking had been here for nearly 2 weeks now and with the poor models performance and wrongness as they been showing settled weather in 6-10 range since mid June had not come off and now it want unsettled on 6-10 range will come off or not? 

Northern blocking gave us lot of cold rain and cold temperatures since mid month which more like Icelandic climate here.  I think in future UK summer average will be 17-18C compare to 23=24C supposedly.  Global warming effect everywhere but not the UK the only place in the world cannot get warmer and warmer. as they predicted London to be 28C average in July in the future.

Slightly more unsettled in FI (post 144hr) on some of the output this morning but generally not bad away from the south before then and a very pleasant first week for many areas.

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wx maps suggesting a little more warmth for the south into week 2, but rain never far away on the Continent and more coming inti the NW later

GFS - currently HP over N and THAT trough sticking around over the S, the latter being even slower to clear E-wards in this morning's forecast. In fact so slow that it has an Atlantic trough close on its heels, perhaps a day's warmth from the S Fri 2nd as that approaches, the Atlantic influence covering the UK Sun 4th before retreating. There follows a period with HP from SW and LP to N alternately dominating (HP Wed 7th, LP Fri 9th, HP Mon 12th, the sort of situation which could go either way).

GEFS - temps in the S around norm, agreement good until Mon 5th; wet at first and still generally damp later with high totals in one or two runs; in the N a little above norm at first (to Wed 7th), less good agreement between runs, and dry until about Mon 5th after which regular amounts of rain

ECM - offers a day or two longer between the two troughs around Fri 2nd but then pushes the Atlantic all the way across the UK by Sun 4th deepening to 1000mb N Sea Thu 8th with cold pool to boot! (from comments above, today's 0z as commented on here is a definite downgrade from yesterday's 12z, which I didn't get to look at)

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The big story seems to be the dog that did not bark. Remember the apocalyptic forecasts by the usual suspect for a write-off weekend of heavy rains? Well much of the country had a decent, dry weekend.

The weather has been okay. Fairly average really.

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The big story seems to be the dog that did not bark. Remember the apocalyptic forecasts by the usual suspect for a write-off weekend of heavy rains? Well much of the country had a decent, dry weekend.

The weather has been okay. Fairly average really.

It was always going to be a southern feature anyway. Plenty of rain here yesterday evening and some places were flooded along the south coast to the SW so the dog barked in some areas.

The point is that whilst there is atmospheric weakness, albeit slack, there is potential for local significant rainfall, even if your locality escapes.

It's not the apocalypse that some are predicting but it isn't a heatfest either.

Personally, I don't mind if it isn't cold, windy and raining all the time so I should be OK in the next fortnight 

The big story seems to be the dog that did not bark. Remember the apocalyptic forecasts by the usual suspect for a write-off weekend of heavy rains? Well much of the country had a decent, dry weekend.

The weather has been okay. Fairly average really.

22mm overnight here in SE London. That's a fairly noisy non-barking dog. I accept it's not been that wet everywhere though. "Only" 13mm at my field, which is unusual as it's almost always wetter than London.

GFS 06z max temps so far this run:

Mon: London 22C (It won't exceed 18-19C, a load of heavy rain is heading our way which the model didn't forecast), Manchester 20C, Glasgow 22C

Tues: London 18C, Manc 23C, Glasgow 23C

Wed: London 16C, Manc 22C, Glasgow 18C

Thurs: London 21C, Manc 22C, Glasgow 20C. The natural order almost but not quite restored. 

It continues to be a very good end to June in the North and Scotland and a very bad one in the South. 

GFS is consistently much better than the others from later this week onwards, having been consistently worse than the pack during the last week or so. Why should that be so? I can't speak with any expertise to model biases, but GFS was notably less progressive in sweeping away the cut-off trough. Now it is less progressive in bringing in the Atlantic. So perhaps a bias towards retrogression / slow jet made it worse than the others last week and better this week.

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The big story seems to be the dog that did not bark. Remember the apocalyptic forecasts by the usual suspect for a write-off weekend of heavy rains? Well much of the country had a decent, dry weekend.

The weather has been okay. Fairly average really.

Yes it has been very average and dry in the North at least which means decent weather at this time of year. But the outlook does seem to be declining now and there is almost no sign of any sort of heatwave through to about mid-July. As I've said before there is a good chance the first half of June will have been the best spell of the Summer.

 

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http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4  (notably on parts of the north). This theme continues so far on the GFS 06z op run so far. (The run is up to day 5/6 at time of writing).

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GFS continues on its lone journey towards a much better looking start to July.
However, the other big 3 are all unsettled, GEM particularly so, and so the GFS must be taken with a huge pinch of salt unless and until the others start showing similar.
Its not likely to be quite as bad as GEM is showing, but equally unlikely to be as good as GFS.
Probably the ECM, which is a bit of a middle ground, average, not too warm, not too cool, and uninspiring is probably about right.

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