Met Office Hadley         7.2c      Anomaly     -2.6C provisional to the 5th

Metcheck                      6.55c    Anomaly     -4.86c

Netweather                   7.49c    Anomaly     -3.82c

Peasedown St John      6.45c     Anomaly     -5.95.   

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Currently on 4.0C (-6.2C)
Already it looks like another below average month with next week struggling below normal too.

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I wonder how this first week of May compares with other very cold first weeks of May - This one has been quite amazing.

 

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Met Office Hadley       7.0c      Anomaly       -2.8c provisional to 6th

Metcheck                    6.55c    Anomaly       -4.86c

Netweather                 7.28c    Anomaly       -4.03c

Peasedown St John    6.57c    Anomaly     -5.80c.  

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This is an odd looking link but on here - about 1979 which was similar.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12939#:~:text=May%201979%20the%20 'snowiest%20may%20on%20record'.,-Quantum&text=The%20metoffice%20also%20reports%20in,south%20as%20the%20channel%20islands.

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To gauge how unusually cold the last 31 days had been, if we start from the date of when the Arctic blast struck on the 5th of April

 

5th April -5th May 2021: ~6.4C

5th April-5th May 1986: 6.8C  (April: 5.8C)

5th April-5th May 1941: 7.1C  (April: 6.4C)

5th April-5th May 1936: 6.7C  (April: 6.3C)

5th April-5th May 1922: 6.4C  (April: 5.5C)

5th April-5th May 1917: 7.0C (April: 5.4C)

5th April-5th May 1908: 6.9C (April: 6.0C)

5th April-5th May 1903: 7.0C (April: 6.4C)

5th April-5th May 1891: 6.8C (April: 6.1C)

5th April-5th May 1888: 6.9C (April: 6.2C)

5th April-5th May 1887: 6.5C (April: 6.2C)

5th April-5th May 1879: 5.9C (April: 5.7C)

5th April-5th May 1877: 6.3C (April: 7.0C)

5th April-5th May 1860: 6.5C (April: 5.7C)

5th April-5th May 1847: 7.2C (April: 6.6C)

5th April-5th May 1839: 7.7C (April: 6.4C)

5th April-5th May 1838: 7.4C (April: 6.1C)

5th April-5th May 1837: 5.8C (April: 4.7C)

5th April-5th May 1812: 5.5C (April 5.5C)

5th April-5th May 1809: 6.0C (April 5.2C)

5th April-5th May 1808: 7.4C (April: 5.8C)

5th April-5th May 1793: 7.0C (April: 6.2C)

5th April-5th May 1790: 7.2C (April: 6.1C)

5th April-5th May 1784: 7.2C (April: 5.7C)

5th April-5th May 1782: 5.3C (April: 5.2C)

5th April-5th May 1780: 6.3C (April: 7.4C)

5th April-5th May 1772: 7.2C (April: 7.2C)

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Currently on 4.0C (-6.2C)
Already it looks like another below average month with next week struggling below normal too.

 

Agree, with exception couple of warmer days in SE this weekend

Also starting to look like third week of May could see high pressure with cold nights

 

 

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I wonder how this first week of May compares with other very cold first weeks of May - This one has been quite amazing.

 

My CET estimate for the first week of May is 6.60C.

The last time we had a colder first week in May was 1979 with an incredible 5.09C.

To find another start to May colder than this year you have to go back to 1892 when the CET was 6.49C. So 2021 has the second coldest first week of May in 129 years.

The coldest first week in May on record is 1877 with 5.06C.

1782 matched 1979 with 5.09C.

After a very cold first week, the CET tracker shows temperatures returning close to the average for the next two weeks which should allow the CET to start rising very quickly. At the moment I am still quite comfortable with my prediction of 10.8C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley        7.0c      Anomaly      -2.9c. Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                     6.81c    Anomaly      -4.60c

Netweather                  7.43c    Anomaly      -3.88c

Peasedown St John     7.28c     Anomaly     -5.12c.  

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After a very cold first week, the CET tracker shows temperatures returning close to the average for the next two weeks which should allow the CET to start rising very quickly. At the moment I am still quite comfortable with my prediction of 10.8C.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

 It’s the night time temps that will make a difference.  April wasn’t a bad month here for daytime temps but we had a decent frost most nights with below freezing temps early morning. 

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Hints from the forecast models of a retrograde to the mean trough position late next week or early the following one, placing it west of the UK.

GFS more keen than ECM during the past four sets of 00z and 12z runs.

If that transpires, it will facilitate some warm but not necessarily very settled conditions. Maybe even set up something very warm or hot by the late stages of the month - but I'm getting way ahead of myself there! I consider that last part a 'threat' that I'm keeping an eye on, as it could push the CET too high. Late May heat can have that magnitude of impact, as days are at their longest and sun strongest.

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Mean temperature for the first 8 days a ridiculous 5.0C here 

This follows on from a mean of 5.3C for April.

I think 1951 is possibly the only post-war year that could match this extreme level of cold and astounding lack of warmth. 1983 close but probably not quite as cold.

1979 was colder at the start of May but April was almost a degree warmer.

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Met Office Hadley        7.4c       Anomaly       -2.7c  provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.52c     Anomaly       -3.88c

Netweather                  7.87c     Anomaly       -3.44c

Peasedown St John     7.3c      Anomaly        -5.1c.    

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Hints from the forecast models of a retrograde to the mean trough position late next week or early the following one, placing it west of the UK.

GFS more keen than ECM during the past four sets of 00z and 12z runs.

If that transpires, it will facilitate some warm but not necessarily very settled conditions. Maybe even set up something very warm or hot by the late stages of the month - but I'm getting way ahead of myself there! I consider that last part a 'threat' that I'm keeping an eye on, as it could push the CET too high. Late May heat can have that magnitude of impact, as days are at their longest and sun strongest.

  I’m hoping for a warm up!   Today is a good example of how quickly things can change.  Overnight temps stayed in double figures and we’ll probably hit 20c this afternoon.  

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 It’s the night time temps that will make a difference.  April wasn’t a bad month here for daytime temps but we had a decent frost most nights with below freezing temps early morning. 

Agree the night time temps for the past 5 weeks have been ridiculously cold but the days have not been warm either,often sunny but no warmth! The stats back this up with the average max being only 12c-13c. There have only been a handful of days when the temperature has reached 15c,that is cold! We normally have had a few 20c days by now.I was out last wednesday and it really was like a winters day with rain,hail and a biting wind.

 

Agree the night time temps for the past 5 weeks have been ridiculously cold but the days have not been warm either,often sunny but no warmth! The stats back this up with the average max being only 12c-13c. There have only been a handful of days when the temperature has reached 15c,that is cold! We normally have had a few 20c days by now.I was out last wednesday and it really was like a winters day with rain,hail and a biting wind.

We did OK in April.  We had a couple of cold days with snow flurries at the start, then most days were mid teens with a few T shirt days but on the odd day the Easterly was biting, despite the temp. However, almost every morning started frosty and below freezing.

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Met Office Hadley        8.0c       Anomaly       -2.1c  provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     8.06c     Anomaly       -3.34c

Netweather                  8.59c     Anomaly       -2.72c

Peasedown St John     8.27c     Anomaly      -4.13c.           

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0.6C rise over one day seems a lot, it was actually pretty chilly here, was it especially warm in the South or were night time temps every high?

0.6C rise over one day seems a lot, it was actually pretty chilly here, was it especially warm in the South or were night time temps every high?

 

I think the warmer (and wetter) winds from SW kept night temperatures up, but not very warm in the west in daytime, more like 12 or 13 at night, and 13-15 daytime

 

Next few nights will probably have a minimum nearer 5c, but adding in daytime looks like overall will be close to, or just below average

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