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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 01 May 2021 08:25:15(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,581
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during May, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard. 

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for May should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.  

Historic CET summary for May

1981-2010 11.66C (30 years)   

1991-2020 11.90C (30 years)  

2001-2020 12.02C (last 20 years)  

Last year May was above average at 12.5C. The prior year was slightly below average with 11.2C. 2017 and 2018 were both very warm and above 13C. We have had a few cold May's in recent years, 10.8C in 2015, 10.4C in 2013, and 10.7C in 2010. 

Here is a chart of the May CET for all years since 1961  

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output    

850s start the month below average. After the first week there is a lot of scatter and the ENS mean is around average. 

GEFS 850s 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) also looks cool although there are a number of much warmer runs in the second week of May

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-mjj-v1.pdf

The 3-month outlook is still a 35% chance of warmer than average conditions (which is 1.8x normal and the same as last month). Cooler conditions are 0.5x normal probability. Didn't exactly work out well in April!

For May there is a 55% chance of near-normal temperatures and 30% chance of above-average temperatures. 

Lower than average SSTs around the UK at present favour cooler than average conditions.

Edited by moderator 01 May 2021 10:02:44(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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Offline Gavin D  
#2 Posted : 02 May 2021 10:23:17(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 20,906
Man
United Kingdom

Hadley

6.6c to the 1st

2.8c below the 61 to 90 average
4.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 6.6c on the 1st
Current low this month 6.6c on the 1st

Offline ARTzeman  
#3 Posted : 02 May 2021 10:25:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 28,774
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley 6.6c Anomaly -2.8c provisional to 1st.

Metcheck 5.38c Anomaly -6.03c

Netweather 6.93c Anomaly -4.38c

Peasedown St John 6.93c Anomaly -8.37c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline KevBrads1  
#4 Posted : 02 May 2021 15:24:03(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,667
Location: Irlam

The CET minimum of April 2021 was 1.0C but the period 3rd April-2nd May 2021 CET minimum is provisionally 0.7C!
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 236 (up to 17th June)

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline ARTzeman  
#5 Posted : 03 May 2021 10:58:09(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,774
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        6.7c      Anomaly     -2.7c provisional to 2dnd

Metcheck                     6.58c    Anomaly     -4.82c

Netweather                  7.36c    Anomaly     -3.95c

Peasedown St John     6.6c     Anomaly      -5.8c.                 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#6 Posted : 03 May 2021 14:15:53(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,581
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

First look at the May CET tracker

The very cold weather continues for the first week of the month. Signs of a pattern change from next weekend as things could potentially turn milder and above average. 

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Global Warming  
#7 Posted : 03 May 2021 14:35:44(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,581
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here is the list of predictions for May

Chart 1

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Saint Snow  
#8 Posted : 03 May 2021 23:03:06(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Posts: 50,866
Man
Location: St Helens

I see Gusty's taking the "sh*t or bust" route 

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#9 Posted : 04 May 2021 06:26:55(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 7,857
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Here is the list of predictions for May

Chart 1

Looking at the latest GFS have we all gone to high again. 

1816 again anyone?

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline ARTzeman  
#10 Posted : 04 May 2021 10:19:40(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,774
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        7.2c      Anomaly      -2.4c provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                     6.98c    Anomaly      -4.42c

Netweather                  7.73c    Anomaly      -3.58c

Peasedown St John     7.4c      Anomaly      -5.0c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#11 Posted : 04 May 2021 12:57:18(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 153
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

 

Looking at the latest GFS have we all gone to high again. 

1816 again anyone?

 

I must say I was quite shocked to be so far down the list with 10.5c.

I thought we'd have a few more takers for well below average after the April we've just had and the frankly dismal charts for the next week or so.

May hasn't really been given a proper cold edition since the exceptional 1996, and that year would have been even more exceptional were it not for the heatwave at its very conclusion. We are going to need a significantly improved prognosis in the second half to avoid a similar calamity this year at this rate 

Offline springsunshine  
#12 Posted : 04 May 2021 15:05:42(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,602
Location: Bournemouth

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post

 

 

I must say I was quite shocked to be so far down the list with 10.5c.

I thought we'd have a few more takers for well below average after the April we've just had and the frankly dismal charts for the next week or so.

May hasn't really been given a proper cold edition since the exceptional 1996, and that year would have been even more exceptional were it not for the heatwave at its very conclusion. We are going to need a significantly improved prognosis in the second half to avoid a similar calamity this year at this rate 

Iam also suprised to be so far down the list to! It would be interesting to know why so many have so high? I really think this May is going to be a shocker as well as the whole of summer 2021.

Offline Hippydave  
#13 Posted : 04 May 2021 20:30:32(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,499
Location: Tunbridge Wells

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

 

Iam also suprised to be so far down the list to! It would be interesting to know why so many have so high? I really think this May is going to be a shocker as well as the whole of summer 2021.

I went average purely because it seems to be very difficult getting below average months these days and getting 2 in a row seemed unlikely. We're at that time of year where a cool start can easily be overcome by a few days of very high temps and it wouldn't surprise me to see some real warmth drawn up later on. 

 

 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: West Malling

Offline KevBrads1  
#14 Posted : 04 May 2021 21:09:38(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,667
Location: Irlam

I suspect the 30 day CET running mean is actually less than the equivalent period in 1986.

 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 236 (up to 17th June)

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Gusty  
#15 Posted : 05 May 2021 10:17:19(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,001
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

I see Gusty's taking the "sh*t or bust" route 

 

 We know the answer to that already ! 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline ARTzeman  
#16 Posted : 05 May 2021 10:21:04(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,774
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       7.4c     Anomaly     -2.2c provisional to the 4th

Metcheck                    6.81c   Anomaly     -4.60c

Netweather                 7.84c   Anomaly     -3.47c

Peasedown St John    7.6c     Anomaly     -4.8c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#17 Posted : 05 May 2021 17:54:59(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 153
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

I think May is going to be a cold one but wouldn't be so sure the trend will extend into the summer months. The cold springs 1996 and 2013 were both followed by pretty decent summers ; if anything I tend to worry if we get too much warm weather too early that we've "used up our luck" for the year and will be punished with a dreadful summer (2007 being the classic example of this)
Offline Caz  
#18 Posted : 05 May 2021 18:34:37(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 21,911
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Hippydave Go to Quoted Post

 I went average purely because it seems to be very difficult getting below average months these days and getting 2 in a row seemed unlikely. We're at that time of year where a cool start can easily be overcome by a few days of very high temps and it wouldn't surprise me to see some real warmth drawn up later on. 

I went just above average but my thinking was exactly the same as yours.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Col  
#19 Posted : 06 May 2021 05:02:35(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,407
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I went just above average but my thinking was exactly the same as yours.  

I went just below but the thinking was the same. Then again, I thought the same for April....

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Caz  
#20 Posted : 06 May 2021 05:49:22(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 21,911
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

I went just below but the thinking was the same. Then again, I thought the same for April....

My thinking was the same for April too but you did considerably better than I did.  You have more to lose than I have this month.  Good luck.   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

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