Met Office Hadley        5.8c      Anomaly       -0.7c provisional to 7th

Metcheck                     5.29c    Anomaly        -2.73c

Netweather                  5.67c    Anomaly        -2.44c

Peasedown St John     6.2c      Anomaly       -2.2c. 

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Finally seeing some signs of warmer weather for next week, albeit only reaching near-average for the most part.

Gives me an estimate of 6.1°C to 21st but that's assuming GFS is right to drop the night temps so low 10th-12th (subzero, as low as -3°C) which takes my rough estimate down to 4.9°C, a bit below GW's. It also includes a brief cold spell 19th-21st that brings two more frosty nights.

An average remainder of the month would then give us a final CET in the low to mid-7s °C.

Generally, there are signs of a pattern shift toward one more supportive of UK/Europe centred ridges, but also of continued extensive high-latitude blocking, which poses a risk of further unusually chilly interludes later in the month.

I'm starting to sense the possibility of some pleasantly warm weather in the final week of the month, though. If fact, there's some good momentum building toward a fine May this year as the La Nina event gets eroded away by powerful tropical waves in the Pacific. Hopefully that will hold!

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Met Office Hadley         5.9c       Anomaly      -0.6c provisional to 8th

Metcheck                      5.59c      Anomaly      -2.43c

Netweather                   5.92c      Anomaly      -2.19c

Peasedown St John     6.2c       Anomaly       -2.2c. 

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Met Office Hadley       6.0c.      Anomaly        -0.5c provisional to 9th

Netweather                 5.55c     Anomaly        -2.46c

Netweather                 6.08c     Anomaly        -2.03c

Peasedown St John    6.36c     Anomaly       -2.04c 

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Met Office Hadley          5.8c        Anomaly      -0.7c provisional to 10th

Metcheck                       5.34c      Anomaly      -2.68c

Netweather                    5.94c      Anomaly      -2.17c

Peasedown St John      5.23c      Anomaly      -3.17c.

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Wonder if this will be one of those rare months where everyone went too high in their prediction

Looking like another week of below average temperatures, then 3-4 days (18th-21st) of 0-2 degrees above average. All depends on what happens in last 8 days of month which is uncertain in models at the moment.

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It's got down to 2.8C (-4.7C) here this morning.
Should recover slowly this week but still frosts expected every night

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Met Office Hadley        5.7c      Anomaly      -1.0c provisional to 11th

Metcheck                     5.16c    Anomaly      -2.86c

Netweather                  5.71c    Anomaly      -2.4c

Peasedown St John     5.17c    Anomaly      -3.23c.  

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The last time April was colder than March was in 2012. That year saw a March CET of 8.3C.

The last time that April was colder than March when the March CET was below 7C was 1978. In that year the April CET was 6.5C and the March CET 6.7C. We would have been under 7C this March had it not been for the very mild final couple of days.

The last time the CET for the first few months of the year was similar to this year was 1977. In that year there were 5 consecutive months more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean - from April to August with 7.2C in April and just 12.2C in June. After March we had to wait until October for an above-average month.

The current CET mean up to today by my estimations stands at just 5.07C.

Cold but nothing remarkable. There have been plenty of colder years since 1950.

Coldest first 12 days of April since 1950

1958  4.01C
1968  4.21C
1970  4.00C
1975  4.53C
1986  4.03C
2013  4.33C

The last time the CET for the first few months of the year was similar to this year was 1977. In that year there were 5 consecutive months more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean - from April to August with 7.2C in April and just 12.2C in June. After March we had to wait until October for an above-average month.

Please not another summer like 1977! That was truly awful, especially coming after the amazing summer of 1976.  

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Please not another summer like 1977! That was truly awful, especially coming after the amazing summer of 1976.  

Yes it was a bit grim. July was a very dry month though but the relentless cool wind direction was a pain

The most gradual of warm-ups has been gathering some momentum in the model output these past few days.

GFS 00z continues that theme right to the end of its run, which by my crude estimate is enough to lift the CET into the low 7s.

So, there's a legitimate chance that the April colder than a not especially warm March statistic doesn't come about.

Enough to stop me wondering whether I should have been bolder with my prediction. Despite being near the bottom of the spread, it's less than a degree below average - but maybe that will prove wise. Maybe .

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Met Office Hadley        5.6c       Anomaly      -1.2c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                     5.08c     Anomaly      -2.94c

Netweather                  5.57c     Anomaly      -2.54c

Peasedown St John     5.6c      Anomaly     -1.08c.   

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Yes it was a bit grim. July was a very dry month though but the relentless cool wind direction was a pain

It's funny what tricks the mind plays on memories. I remember distinctly the terrible weather during the Silver Jubilee celebrations but I'd totally forgotten the warm spell of early July when Scotland had a heatwave that would rival recent ones up there. 1977 was certainly a summer where any warmth was spread around the country ...

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_5bcb0eb2-c4bf-46f8-b835-ce1cd0dfed25/

 

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My first PM to GW was for 6.6c - a mistype that I quickly corrected.

Starting to wish I'd not noticed my error!

 

 

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This month is not panning out anything like I expected. Another spectacular fail for me is looking on the cards unless we have an incredible flip to heat in the last week!
At least I'm in esteemed company at the top end of the April estimates 

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Met Office Hadley       5.6c      Anomaly      -1.2c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                    5.18c    Anomaly       -2.84c

Netweather                 5.58c     Anomaly      -2.53c

Peasedown St John     5.44c    Anomaly      -2.96c.                   

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The CET really is going to struggle over the next ten 10 days. 

High pressure close enough to the keep nights chilly but with a cool air source lacking continentality that brings the likelihood of convective daytime infill suppressing daytime maximum temperatures.

My 9.3c prediction is an unmitigated disaster. As things stand we will struggle to get a CET above 7c this month ! 

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The CET really is going to struggle over the next ten 10 days. 

High pressure close enough to the keep nights chilly but with a cool air source lacking continentality that brings the likelihood of convective daytime infill suppressing daytime maximum temperatures.

My 9.3c prediction is an unmitigated disaster. As things stand we will struggle to get a CET above 7c this month ! 

It’s really got to go some to get anywhere near my 9.2c guess and these frosty nights aren’t helping.  Forever the optimist, I’m hoping for a miracle!  

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