That's a relief for me after last month. May be this is your year Caz? 

I see Gusty is gritting his teeth too!

Met  Office  Hadley             6.7c          Anomaly         1.2c provisional to  26th

Metcheck                     5.90c      Anomaly        0.26c

Netweather                  6.52c      Anomaly        0.23c

Peasedown  St  John    6.11c     Anomaly       0.79c.   

Does look to be on for a finish right by the 7*C mark. ECM's backed down a little today, after GFS's slow crawl toward it during the past few days.

Meanwhile, the opening third of April continues to look wild. Some of the GFS runs of late have been phenomenally cold for the time of year. Today's 12z gives me barely above 4*C for the opening week and then changes very little out to 12th. 

That means it has the CET around 3.5*C below the 1981-2010 average! 

This happens in association with an extreme negative NAO spell, driven by an atmospheric wave heading up from the troposphere to the stratosphere and trying to punch into the polar vortex to take it down, only to get reflected back down again. Usually, such reflections from a single wave descend over Canada or Alaska. This time, it's over Greenland instead. The descending air supports unusually strong and persistent high pressure to our west and northwest.

So, there's legit potential for an impressively cold opening third or so to the month.

HOWEVER...

There's been a bit of a westward trend to the initial setup in today's model runs - and the ECM 12z has the cold largely missing to our west. In that scenario, low pressure to our southwest may in fact pump up some very warm air across a large part of Europe. It wouldn't be all that outlandish of that warmth was to reach southern UK.

SO...

We have a massive CET conundrum for the 2nd time this year (after the Feb one driven by the SSW). Arguably even 3 given the unusual situation we had with that cold high in January (fine details impacted temps a lot, especially the overnight lows).

Good thing I've done well with the conundrums so far this  year... (!) . 

Met  Office  Hadley           6.7c       Anomaly       1.2c  Provisional to 27th

Metcheck                          5.99c     Anomaly        -0.17c

Netweather                       6.55c     Anomaly        0.26c

Peasedown   St   John      6.6c       Anomaly        -0,3c.    

Took some time to process the GFS 12z run. What an extreme northerly that produced!

The model has just made an embarrassing climb-down on the opening four days of the month, mind. My CET estimate to 4th for that run is a staggering 3.2°C higher than the one from the 12z of yesterday .

As if in retaliation, in then gives me a CET estimate of just 1.4°C for 6th-9th, taking my estimate to-date down to the mid-4s °C.

Along the way, there's a possible sub-4°C daily maximum CET on 6th and several overnight minimums in the 3 to -4°C range. As a mean across the three sites. About a week into April. Sheesh! 

Fair to say, that's an outlandish solution. Yet it seems to sit within an ensemble spread that ventures even colder. Earlier today I saw one doing the rounds that brought 850s down near -20°C to Scotland. Resulting temps would be subzero by day even at sea level!

At the other end of the scale, an increasing number of model runs have been sending the coldest air west of the UK, leaving us under chilly, cyclonic conditions. A warm-up from the southeast thereafter is still on the table but seems less supported than it was 24 hours ago.

So much to contemplate as the 4th leg of this year's competition looms!

Met Office Hadley        6.8c        Anomaly     1.2c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     6.16c      Anomaly     -0.00c

Netweather                  6.69c      Anomaly     0.4c

Peasedown St John    6.6c       Anomaly       -0.3c.    

Took some time to process the GFS 12z run. What an extreme northerly that produced!

The model has just made an embarrassing climb-down on the opening four days of the month, mind. My CET estimate to 4th for that run is a staggering 3.2°C higher than the one from the 12z of yesterday .

As if in retaliation, in then gives me a CET estimate of just 1.4°C for 6th-9th, taking my estimate to-date down to the mid-4s °C.

Along the way, there's a possible sub-4°C daily maximum CET on 6th and several overnight minimums in the 3 to -4°C range. As a mean across the three sites. About a week into April. Sheesh! 

 

Fair to say, that's an outlandish solution. Yet it seems to sit within an ensemble spread that ventures even colder. Earlier today I saw one doing the rounds that brought 850s down near -20°C to Scotland. Resulting temps would be subzero by day even at sea level!

At the other end of the scale, an increasing number of model runs have been sending the coldest air west of the UK, leaving us under chilly, cyclonic conditions. A warm-up from the southeast thereafter is still on the table but seems less supported than it was 24 hours ago.

So much to contemplate as the 4th leg of this year's competition looms!

A similar picture was being predicted by the models late february/early March and this month was looking decidedly cold hence i went for a CET guess of just 5.85 and even thought that was going to be on the high side., the models were way of the mark in the end I would expect there to be a further downgrade later this week and although easter is looking below average temerature wise i suspect there will be a rapid warm up shortly after.

 

A similar picture was being predicted by the models late february/early March and this month was looking decidedly cold hence i went for a CET guess of just 5.85 and even thought that was going to be on the high side., the models were way of the mark in the end I would expect there to be a further downgrade later this week and although easter is looking below average temerature wise i suspect there will be a rapid warm up shortly after.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c          Anomaly       1.4c. Provisional to 29th

Metcheck                         6.32c        Anomaly          0.16c

Netweather                      6.9c          Anomaly          0.61c 

Peasedown St John        6.9c         Anomaly          0.0c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c          Anomaly       1.4c. Provisional to 29th

Metcheck                         6.32c        Anomaly          0.16c

Netweather                      6.9c          Anomaly          0.61c 

Peasedown St John        6.9c         Anomaly          0.0c.

Could inch up another couple of tenths of a degree with the lovely weather today and tomorrow.

Hope the inevitable downwards correction isn't too extreme, although I still think that, with what the month was looking like a week or so into it, I've somewhat dodged a bullet - which makes a change  (usual thing is that, as we get to mid-month, my guess seems well on track for a decent finish, only for some anomalous weather - mild or cold - to appear out of nowhere and ruin my month in that last week)

 

 

 

Could inch up another couple of tenths of a degree with the lovely weather today and tomorrow.

Hope the inevitable downwards correction isn't too extreme, although I still think that, with what the month was looking like a week or so into it, I've somewhat dodged a bullet - which makes a change  (usual thing is that, as we get to mid-month, my guess seems well on track for a decent finish, only for some anomalous weather - mild or cold - to appear out of nowhere and ruin my month in that last week)

 

 

Looking good, I am hoping for a 0.3 rise each day for the last 2 days and then a small correction 

Down a degree would suit me. 

 

Looking good, I am hoping for a 0.3 rise each day for the last 2 days and then a small correction 

I'd be quite happy with that 

Here are the March predictions

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Table

Met Office Hadley           7.2c        Anomaly       1.5c    provisional to 30th

Metcheck                        6.59c      Anomaly       0.43c

Netweather                     7.08c      Anomaly       0.79c

Peasedown St John      7.16c       Anomaly       0.26c. 

I’ve just pm’d my April guess.   

I’ve just pm’d my April guess.   

His inbox is full now