A slight dip towards the end of the run , you watch May BH be cold 

Yep, I'm preparing for another Arctic blast or at least a strong cloudy Easterly just in time for early May

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A slight dip towards the end of the run , you watch May BH be cold 

Seem April will pass without a heatwave leaving March warmer than April so far unless they change and increase the warmth to hit 20C at least.  Normally 23-27C at the normal warmest maxes for April.

Pretty diabolical ENS tonight, there's no hiding from it. A couple of outliers from around 25th onwards hinting at +10s but generally no support. From what I can see although the 850s can on balance seem around average the synoptics play into a cool ENE source, perhaps some pleasant day time highs at times? Hopefully towards the mid term we'll see some energy over the top to sink the high further SE.

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16-dayer showing a warm-up in week 2 but not as positive as yesterday; rain stays mainly in the Med but some for UK in week 2. Jetstream breaking into two ill-defined branches throughout, N & S of UK with occasional fragments breaking off to affect UK, most notably Tue 20th and Fri 30th.

GFS - general pattern is of HP ridging to Norway with a brief weak point on Tue 20th (HP is not at any point as centred over UK as yesterday) and this lasts until Tue 27th when there's a collapse to slack LP.  The HP wanders around a bit so NW Scotland sometimes affected by SW-lies (esp Sun 18th) and SE England by NE/E-lies (esp now and Sat 24th) but these variations look a bit unstable.

GEFS - temps recovering to norm by Wed 21st on all runs after which mean near norm but wide range above and below, control run being consistently pessimistic. Perhaps a little rain in the S around Sun 26th. and in Scotland around Tue 20th with more chance thereafter.

ECM - like GFS to Tue 20th but then HP revives only to the W of UK and quite a deep LP over Norway Fri 23rd wit N-lies for E coast.

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16-dayer still showing a painfully slow warm-up for W Europe though the cold may let up a little in the SW in week 2. (or positive temp anomalies go to Turkey and the Caspian, or Lapland, all a long way away). Still very dry; some rain in the extreme NW this week, perhaps in the SE next week.

GFS consistent with yesterday's forecast to Tue 20th i.e HP ridging to Norway and then breaking down as a weak trough comes in from the Atlantic but then the HP never really establishes itself; it fades after a day or two with LP over Norway bringing some cold air Thu 22nd. From there there's a weak W-ly flow until a narrow N-S ridge of HP Wed 28th ( could be mild in the W cold in the E but outcome sensitive to exact position) which flips round into another ridge from the SW to Norway, through to Sat 1st, SW-lies for NW Scotland, E-lies for SE England

GEFS temps back to norm or even above in the N by Tue 20th after which mean is near norm but poor agreement between different runs (control and op both fancy another short cold spell around 22nd away from SW). A slight chance of some rain towards end of April (Scotland has an extra short burst around the 20th)

ECM has less of a breakdown on Tue 20th and quickly re-establishes the HP to be centred over the N Sea with S-ly flow becoming quite a strong SE-ly for all UK by Sun 25th (and some warmth for TWO members whose temp forecasts for April are struggling!)

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If you'd just waited a few seconds more there would have been no posts in this thread for 24 hours!

 

I know that the weather's stuck in an unremarkable rut, but has there ever been a full day without a post?

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If you'd just waited a few seconds more there would have been no posts in this thread for 24 hours!

 

I know that the weather's stuck in an unremarkable rut, but has there ever been a full day without a post?

There have been half-a-dozen occasions in the last year when no-one has posted between two of my daily summaries. One occasion might well come in at the full 24 hrs.

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I assume you posted this to stop DEW feeling lonely 

I assume you posted this to stop DEW feeling lonely 

And the snow row towards the end of the run. Nailed on blizzard

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And the snow row towards the end of the run. Nailed on blizzard

Jetstream continues to avoid the UK with a rather fragmentary appearance both to the N and S - occasionally a bit slips in our direction , from the N Tue 20th and from the S Sun 2nd, the latter as part of a cut-off low to the SW.

GFS shows HP ridge to Norway as before, with partial collapse Tue/Wed 20th/21st, resuming wth a more N-S orientation by Fri 23rd before decaying to a W-ly flow   Wed 28th. The Atlantic revives at end of run with LP to W of Ireland Sat 1st bringing p troughs from the S by Sun 2nd, all looks well-dictated by the jet.

GEFS temps back to norm by Mon 19th and staying there to end of run Sun 2nd with less variation between runs than yesterday. As you go further N and W, there's a suggestion of a little cooler around Wed 21st and a little milder around Sun 25th. Only a little rain and that sporadically, best chances later on in the W.

ECM rather different after Wed 21st, keeping HP out to the W and showing LP 1000mb Holland Fri 23rd with N-ly gales for the east. This becomes a trough from Iberia to Norway with NE-lies for all Sun 25th before filling.

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No heat in this mornings outlook , looks cool 

 

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Not pretty from ECM 

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GFS at 168 has the HP sat over the UK - bit different to ECM , for what its worth last nights BEEB was more a kin to GFS 

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GFS at 168 has the HP sat over the UK - bit different to ECM , for what its worth last nights BEEB was more a kin to GFS 

I'm very much hoping that GFS is closer to the mark. Although it's been a fascinating first half of April, I'm done with frosts and chilly days. And that's not only because of my CET prediction for the month!

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I'm very much hoping that GFS is closer to the mark. Although it's been a fascinating first half of April, I'm done with frosts and chilly days. And that's not only because of my CET prediction for the month!

So do  I , quite a different feel between both outcomes on offer 

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Start of May looks chilly from GFS 6z 

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6z ENS , no real warmth, just yet 

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I wonder whether the west European heat dome will still be in evidence this summer. Very interesting.

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