April is shaping up to be chilly 

..... and driest maybe.

Jetstream - current loop from the north with the UK getting the 'benefit' of the back edge N-ly flow hangs around until about Tue 13th, though becoming more fragmented with time. After that a more traditional straight W-ly sets in, up near Iceland to start with but sinking south and by Mon 19th directly across the British Isles.

GFS  - LP currently developing near Iceland moving east and keeping N-ly flow going. Then for most of next week today's GFS resembles yesterday's ECM with undefined slack pressure over UK with residual cold air still in place. Sat 17th sees a more definite HP just W of Ireland with milder air reaching the UK 'round the top' but it retreats to the Atlantic allowing further N-lies Mon 19th before a final chart suggests genuine warmth from the SW Fri 23rd.

GEFS - temps recovering to norm briefly Fri 9th, then cold again by Mon 12th (ca 5C below norm in S) and a slow climb back to norm for most runs by Fri 23rd (though a lot of variation after Fri 16th -  op & control are leading with something above norm in the S by then but the reverse in Scotland). Splashes of rain (initially snow in N) from time to time, a bit more for this weekend  in the S than previously shown. 

ECM - has a more defined picture for next week with LP in place over Faeroes Wed 14th moving to Scandi Sat 17th and a marked N-ly (again!) with HP centre well to the SW unlike GFS

Signs of a recovery but it's slow and no heatwave on offer

Early days but finally hints of a warm up.

16-dayer more pessimistic re temps than GFS - cold this week and only a bit milder from the SW next week, W Europe has a lot of cold air to shift before Spring arrives and even then N Scandinavia is still v cold. Dry; very dry in week 2

GFS - LP moves across from Faeroes to Scandinavia to renew cold N-ly over the weekend and then another but flabbier LP follows the same course Tue 13th. Only on Thu 15th does HP move in from the Atlantic with milder weather, and that sticks around until end of run Sat 24th by which time the HP is centred over Germany and the UK is sandwiched between it and an Atlantic LP.

FAX shows the cold front from the N sticking and forming a trough over the Channel on Sat 10th; doesn't show up on GFS

GEFS - dip in temps this weekend, slow recovery on all runs to just below norm Thu 15th, lots of variation either side of the mean thereafter, the control run is one of the most optimistic. More chances of rain than yesterday but not a lot and not consistent, biggest totals in SW.

ECM - does show the trough over the Channel this weekend, and also develops a similar feature from the LP on Tue 13th which becomes a small closed-circulation LP over Cornwall Sat17th. End of run has light Wly flow - no sign of HP as on GFS.

..... and driest maybe.

That is my thoughts because never before since I first joined this forum have I gone through the whole of the first week of any month without any recorded rainfall at any of my three local stations. As of 8am this morning, there continues to be no recorded rainfall here even though we are now almost a quarter of the way through this month.

Looking at the latest model output (which therefore beings me back on topic as regards to this thread), I am struggling to see where our next measurable rainfall is actually going to come from. We may get a cold front coming through by Friday with possibly, the odd wintry shower behind that. However, that is likely to be a very weak cold front just like the last one which brought us nothing in the way of measurable rainfall and just as with the recent northerly, we are too well sheltered from the air mass which is coming in behind that, for us to to have any real chance of seeing very much in the way of any showery activity which might bring some measurable rainfall to these parts.

Beyond that, it is all looking very dry and very blocked in these parts, but not very warm either. Our driest April on record was in 2017 with April 2020 also bringing us not much more in the way of rainfall than what we had in April 2017. It would therefore be interesting to know what it is about the month of April in particular, which makes it so prone to being so dry these days, although that might require a separate thread which is entirely devoted to that particular subject.

ECM also going for a warm up.

 

ECM also going for a warm up.

 

 

positive signs for warm weather at last

Still cold out to the 20th - April looks a chilly month 

Some good agreement out to the 15th , a spread thereafter 

Some good agreement out to the 15th , a spread thereafter 

An upgrade from yesterday was showing all below average so hope more trends to see a warmer weather as keeping the cold here really wasting the long day light hours source which by now we should be outside using the garden or go places after lock down.

 

An upgrade from yesterday was showing all below average so hope more trends to see a warmer weather as keeping the cold here really wasting the long day light hours source which by now we should be outside using the garden or go places after lock down.

There has been a definite movement towards a milder final third to April, even when taking ensemble scatter/uncertainty into account. Perhaps it is the default for the GEFS to do this but if I recall correctly it did spot the initial northerly quite early on and stuck with it.

16-dayer taking a much more optimistic (i.e. milder) view of temps for week 2 than it did yesterday, not merely for UK but the blue colours have all but disappeared from Norway. Sill on the dry side, though some suggestion of rain for the S & W.

GFS - light N-lies for a couple of days dictated by LP over Scandinavia, just about showing a trough in the Channel for Sat/Sun, but HP slowly moves up from the SW to form a strong ridge from Scotland  to Norway by Sun 18th though it takes a while before the residual cold air is displaced. The HP stays through to Sun 25th, tending to be situated to the north with E-ly winds for the S.

GEFS - temps from cold Mon 12th back to norm Fri 16th and staying there with a moderate spread through to Sun 25th. Curiously the op has gone from being one of the warmest to one of the coldest in a week or so's time. Very little rain , even less than shown yesterday, though a few runs have isolated spikes. Inland stations showing a daily set of mini-spikes - April showers?

ECM - makes more of the Channel trough at the weekend and then allows HP from the SW to slip past to the S the UK and although HP then centred over Norway Sun/Mon 18th/19th like GFS, it leaves UK at that time and for most of the preceding week under slack and cool LP

The BBC last night picked up on the difference between ECM/LP and GFS/HP over the UK later next week

GFS gives a block to the East  mid to long term 

GFS - has relented an allowed there to be more of a trough in the Chammel working its way up to the N Sea,but still keen on HP over UK from Wed 14th unusually persistent through to Mon 26th, ridging to Norway at times and often threatening some cold air from the NE on its southern flank (a close call - ATM the model suggests this wll just miss the UK)

GEFS - from cold this weekend slowly climbing to around normal by Mon 19th and staying there (or a bit above in the N, esp NE Scotland) , very little rain though the small daily spikes noted yesterday are still included for this week. Goodagreement between runs for S England, less so for Scotland.

ECM - treats the HP differently; further S at first so less chance of NE-lies, more a case of Atlantic air working its way round 'over thr top'; then a partial collapse Tue 2oth with W-lies affecting N Scotland

Looks like the proper warm-up from winter to summer is on it's way.

Nothing to shout about and chilly 

Jetstream showing a rather confused pattern - a loop enclosing UK from the N fragmenting and rearranging into a loop from the S by TWed 14th, brief appearance of a cut-off low over France Sat 17th before splitting into two rather ragged streams running N ad S of the UK, the southern one dominant (and well to the S) by Tue 27th

GFS - HP moving in from the W and ridging to Norway by Wed 14th (E-lies for the S) becoming centred over Baltic 1035mb Mon 19th and slack Lp over UK. New HP over Scotland/Shetland Thu 22nd staying around to Tue 27th and from time to time threatening cold NE-lies for England

GEFS - good agreement on cool/cold steadily rising to norm by Tue 20th after which mean stays near norm but a big scatter develops. Very little rain for the whole period to Tue 27th, best chances around Sat 24th.

ECM - agrees with GFS until Sun 18th and then the HP does not move to Baltic but instead withdraws to the SW introducing a light N-ly flow

Looks like the proper warm-up from winter to summer is on it's way.