GEM giving some realistic hope....hope to see more if this from the others

..Dont think the wait will be too long!

Yes, not too long to spring. 

A few more degrees on the 240hr chart would be good. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPUK12_240_38.png 

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Generally I am very happy for spring / warmer weather to arrive

I’d love it to stay cold but going into the final 3rd of February, I think it’s more wishful thinking.

Cold is delivered in Spring but not commonly and 2018 is 1 in 100 year event for a Spring month, unlikely it would happen again 3 years later

I do agree that extremes are more frequent, both hot and cold.

At least this cold period ends with some long standing temperatures figures.

-11 here last night on my station, not bad

GFS / ECM / GEM all show milder airflow arriving on the weekend. As I expected the HP sinks over Europe which never ends well for us

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Ukmo +144

Seen worse

I think those posters looking wishfully for spring-like conditions my find their wishes thwarted a few days out.  There is lurking  menace in this Met Office 144 chart

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

 

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I think those posters looking wishfully for spring-like conditions my find their wishes thwarted a few days out.  There is lurking  menace in this Met Office 144 chart

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

 

Most other options are menace free though. I’m not convinced by any quick reload to anything notably wintry but I wouldn’t rule it out completely, especially if the ECM is supportive of the UKMO scenario at that time point.

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The 00z 168ECM was similar to ukmo +144 this afternoon

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It still isn't over yet.

The difference between keeping the cold and losing it is minute. And it comes down to how deep that shortwave is.

If its deep it lowers heights over Iberia and causes WAA further west and props up the high. If its shallow it causes a height rise further east and collapses it.

This is not about the intensity of the LP, the weaker surface lows actually seem to do a better job of lowering heights.

And what is the thing that low res models can't handle very well?

Shortwaves, much less ones that could possibly under go barotropic development over the med.

 

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The 00z 168ECM was similar to ukmo +144 this afternoon

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Compare. This is the GFSPara 6Z run from yesterday which had that epic cold shot.

This is today's GFS para12Z

 

 

Look at that shortwave. On yesterdays 6Z it was much deeper (higher up, not more intense at the surface) than today.

Do we really trust the low res models to handle its intensification well?

 

 

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Sunday looking like a complete bake in much of the country.

 

Yup, all models now moved away from the snowy breakdown scenario. The orientation of the block and approaching fronts by Saturday see to that.

Can't catch a break here the last few winters. 

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The key moment is from 18-24h on the GFS

After that the trough is too far away to have any impact.

 

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still a number of cold options on the GEFS. A blast of spring followed by another cold snap is possible

 

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still a number of cold options on the GEFS. A blast of spring followed by another cold snap is possible

 

Its still possible to avoid mild entirely.

I think it becomes impossible at 18h when that trough development is sorted.

So if its mild on the 6Z tommorow then that's it.

 

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Could go anywhere from here

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Its still possible to avoid mild entirely.

I think it becomes impossible at 18h when that trough development is sorted.

So if its mild on the 6Z tommorow then that's it.

 

I love your optimism, but that really would be the most remarkable flip in model history

More realistic is the block coming back after a mild period. Happened a lot in the 80s. I remember Ian MacAskill used to say a warm southerly could easily become a cold easterly

 

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Hello

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always looks better in NH view

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ECM 168hrs is ok. Thankfully whatever happens, it's not looking overly wet.

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Sunday looking like a complete bake in much of the country.

 

Looks fairly dry in the all-important SE corner 😅

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Think the ECM might give Q some hope😊

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