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Online Brian Gaze  
#541 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:05:54(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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ECMP again looks quite consistent with ECM, although it has more of a continental flow at 240.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfp.aspx


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Offline Russwirral  
#542 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:19:54(UTC)
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I wonder if the Met will keep their warnings in place?


 


Since the warnings have come out, ony the ICON ad GDPS have given any hint of a wintry breadown... all other move on as if the cold isnt there..


 


.... and that for me is the issue... is the cold air just going to cave in and be displaced so easily? its something models always struggle with, and one that usually goes down to the wire...


 


So for me, the extra data the MET have will be very telling by their warnings adjustment today

Offline fairweather  
#543 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:24:40(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post


 


 



Biggest let-down in years.



Don't tell the people in Kent and Suffolk ! For me it has been the Beast with the Least. Last night did show what I could have won when the flow finally turned ESE for 2 hours and a few showers added a cm of snow. Highlight was a DP of -16C yesterday. Lowest temp was last night 3.9C (although tonight could beat it if we get a clear sky) . 850 hPa's start to go up for a couple of days now but not much and any precipitation might still be snow here but from Sunday it warms up for sure and if it is dry for a week or so I will be happy.

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Offline Russwirral  
#544 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:28:02(UTC)
Russwirral

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Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post


I wonder if the Met will keep their warnings in place?


 


Since the warnings have come out, ony the ICON ad GDPS have given any hint of a wintry breadown... all other move on as if the cold isnt there..


 


.... and that for me is the issue... is the cold air just going to cave in and be displaced so easily? its something models always struggle with, and one that usually goes down to the wire...


 


So for me, the extra data the MET have will be very telling by their warnings adjustment today



 


Update - unfortunatley its the downgrade we didnt want.. MET have already removed the weather warnings..


 


but then - theyve been about as accurate as Donald Trump recently

Offline Rob K  
#545 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:28:55(UTC)
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GEM looks quite springlike this morning.



 


Could we see a repeat of Feb 2019 with snow followed by 20C?


Not this chart as such, as the flow is still on the chillier side of south, but small adjustments with >10C 850mb temperatures could see some very nice temperatures before the month is out.

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Edited by user 11 February 2021 10:30:18(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
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Offline Justin W  
#546 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:30:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post


GEM looks quite springlike this morning.



 


Could we see a repeat of Feb 2019 with snow followed by 20C?



That would be wonderful

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Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Offline ballamar  
#547 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:40:42(UTC)
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Would really like spring now - get some colour in the garden
Offline KAshton  
#548 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:54:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Justin W Go to Quoted Post


 


That would be wonderful



 


GFS 06z OP showing something similar at +228 - 16/17oC quite widely and 15oC for a few days after that. 

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Offline Saint Snow  
#549 Posted : 11 February 2021 10:54:33(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: fairweather Go to Quoted Post


 


Don't tell the people in Kent and Suffolk ! For me it has been the Beast with the Least. Last night did show what I could have won when the flow finally turned ESE for 2 hours and a few showers added a cm of snow. Highlight was a DP of -16C yesterday. Lowest temp was last night 3.9C (although tonight could beat it if we get a clear sky) . 850 hPa's start to go up for a couple of days now but not much and any precipitation might still be snow here but from Sunday it warms up for sure and if it is dry for a week or so I will be happy.



 


The 'biggest letdown in years' was referring to the NYE 2000/01 breakdown. But yes, this spell has been a flop here, too.


"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

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Offline Saint Snow  
#550 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:01:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Justin W Go to Quoted Post


 


That would be wonderful



 


Oi! It's alright for you, with your mountains of snow. I've not had my fix yet - and, until I do, winter's not allowed to be over.

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin
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Offline Downpour  
#551 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:02:58(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post


Significant warm up beginning to surface on the GEFS. With the blocking patterns around it still looks like an early taste of spring or last bit of winter are both more likely than a standard Atlantic flow. 




 


Indeed so. It's been a fun spell here – very cold, a few centimetres of snow and plenty of tobogganing in Epping Forest (which looks beautiful right now). 


 


Ready to see snowdrops popping up – could be a very rapid transition to proper spring looking at the charts.


Roll on spring :)


 

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Offline four  
#552 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:07:47(UTC)
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Looks good and still on the dry side too.
Things are so late here so far, with snowdrops barely showing yet.
On the plus side the rabbit population has collapsed
Offline Saint Snow  
#553 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:13:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: four Go to Quoted Post
Looks good and still on the dry side too.
Things are so late here so far, with snowdrops barely showing yet.
On the plus side the rabbit population has collapsed


 


Doesn't bode well for post-Brexit dietary requirements.


How are the turnips?

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin
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Offline nsrobins  
#554 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:16:12(UTC)
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I’m with Justin. I’m looking for adjustments to warmer uppers - done chasing winter now. If we (IMBY) are not going to get a snow day out of what was looking like a decent set-up then it’s warm sunshine I’m after.
Neil
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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#555 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:24:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: KAshton Go to Quoted Post


 


 


GFS 06z OP showing something similar at +228 - 16/17oC quite widely and 15oC for a few days after that. 



 


Indeed a remarkably warm GFS 6z.  The CET would rocket.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=225&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Online Brian Gaze  
#556 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:31:11(UTC)
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The interesting this here is that the 2018 and 2021 easterlies were both preceded by marginal events from the west that brought a lot more snow. We had ~8cm on Jan 24th 2021 and ~15cm on December 10th (or thereabouts) 2017. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Offline briggsy6  
#557 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:34:14(UTC)
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Writing definitely on the wall now for this is slightly underwhelming cold spell. BBC 5 dayer (I know these things are about as accurate as a chocolate fireguard) has 6c for Saturday and 10c with disgusting amounts of rain and cloud for Sunday.


Winter is over. Roll on Spring.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline The Beast from the East  
#558 Posted : 11 February 2021 11:34:51(UTC)
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still plenty of colder options on the GEFS. The upstream pattern still not yet resolved, though odds now strongly favour mild


 

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Offline tallyho_83  
#559 Posted : 11 February 2021 12:04:27(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: KAshton Go to Quoted Post


 


 


GFS 06z OP showing something similar at +228 - 16/17oC quite widely and 15oC for a few days after that. 



Yes - what is it with the models of late? they all go for temps into mid teens - there is nothing to suggest this in the Met Office long range forecast or BBC - so is it the models going OTT or the Met Office and BBC not being accurate?

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Offline KAshton  
#560 Posted : 11 February 2021 12:11:43(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post


 


Yes - what is it with the models of late? they all go for temps into mid teens - there is nothing to suggest this in the Met Office long range forecast or BBC - so is it the models going OTT or the Met Office and BBC not being accurate?



 


We may see an update from them in the next day or two reflecting the milder output (If it's still there in a day or two). 


The High could easily drift to a more favourable position for cold later. \i think even if we get these warmer temps they're not likely to last, still too early in the season for persistent warmth and colder again later is equally if not more likely.  

Wolverhampton
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