The starting point is indeed the same. The Control and the GEFS are run at a lower resolution - it used to have horizontal grids 4x larger.

 Thanks.

---

 Since 1998 or so, when I first got into this hobby?

(Ensembles. It's what they're for. If the op isn't well supported, as per the 0z ECM in this case, then you note that fact.)

Thanks. I'll remember that. 

---

P8 of the 06Z GEFS brings a monster snowstorm next weekend. It won't happen of course as it looks very different to most other perturbations. But it is quite an unbelievable run. 60+ hours of continuous snow for some. Quite fun to look at although large areas would be cut off for days if not weeks should that come off 

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021013106/gensfr-8-2-156.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021013106/gensfr-8-2-168.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021013106/gensfr-8-2-174.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021013106/gensfr-8-2-180.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021013106/gensfr-8-2-186.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021013106/gensfr-8-2-192.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021013106/gensfr-8-2-204.png

Looking at the broader picture the GEFS and ECM ENS both show 3-4 days of very cold weather starting next weekend. Beyond that there is lots of scatter. Not worth looking beyond about day 8 at the moment as there is no meaningful picture by that point. The 06Z GEFS have 850's ranging from +8 to -13 for London on 13 Feb. Pointless speculating about the second week of Feb at the moment..

Ignoring today's operational runs it looking pretty much game on for down here then ! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49909

 

---

 

Aviemore currently has 10cm snow cover which it has had for weeks bar the odd day and got to -10c last night with only better to come. What a cold spell up there. 

Loch Glascarnoch has been reporting 15-20cm deep snow pretty much all month, whenever I have looked. Is that genuine or are the reports broken?

---

I really don't know what to say about the ECM!? How strange - The operational is a milder run but then again it's ENS mean has shifted colder for instance on the 7th February the ENS AVG MEAN is now -8.2c and on the 8th it's down to -7.7c:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1 

An ENS mean of -8c isn't bad but I hope the Op run will trend colder in the 12z model run. However - Compare that to the 00z ENS which showed the ENS AVG MEAN of -6.7c on the 7th and -7.1c on the 8th.

---

I remember someone used to post on here the discussion from the American forecasters (NOAA I think) about which models they were following and which they were discounting. Anyone remember what I mean? It was always written in ALL CAPS in a strange abbreviated telegraphese style.

---

Ignoring today's operational runs it looking pretty much game on for down here then ! 

Now, which ops would they be. MetO, GFS(P), GEM?

 

---

Every year I watch the winter model thread.. Hoping for one time in North East Kent we may get a flake or two. For many years, it seems to coincide with the 6th of February when we are lucky.. It's my middle daughters birthday which is why the date sticks. Would be even nicer this year.. Her 18th and no chance of a party 😢 or even seeing her friends. Fingers crossed as always.

It looks like it might end up as a 5 day wonder but not necessarily. Probably due to the wind strength again no hard frosts and low minimums. That has been a feature of this winter down here with very few frosts or any low temperatures due to the persistent cloud and zero snow cover.

---

 

Loch Glascarnoch has been reporting 15-20cm deep snow pretty much all month, whenever I have looked. Is that genuine or are the reports broken?

The SYNOP reports show 12cm at the start of the month. Then it all melted. In the last few days it has been 16-18cm generally. So the numbers have been moving around quite a bit which suggests they are correct.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03031&ano=2021&mes=1&day=31&hora=12&min=0&ndays=30

 

Loch Glascarnoch has been reporting 15-20cm deep snow pretty much all month, whenever I have looked. Is that genuine or are the reports broken?

it’s feasible, as said on another thread we’ve been heading to Gartly moor since late December (been 4 times) and I reckon there was 20-25cm on the more exposed bits of the hill last weekend. Most of that snow has barely shifted this last month bar one or two brief mild interludes. Loch Glascarnoch is a bit lower but would be more exposed to snowy precipitation than the eastern glens.

The BBC auto forecast certainly doesn't sound too promising. Not even a single air frost here from now until Feb 13th!

---

The BBC auto forecast certainly doesn't sound too promising. Not even a single air frost here from now until Feb 13th!

I think they use the ECM operational. Not even a blend. At least that’s what I understand so happy to be corrected.

---

This is definitely a first for this winter and in fact many winters. The ensemble mean on the 06z GEFS suite does not go above -5°C for the entire duration of the run here (until Feb 16th).

---

Ive just copied this across if anyone has interest as to why the UKMO is showing what it is

Good Afternoon....

This is a bit more of a macro analysis of the upcoming features.

The overnight run of the GFS / GEFS was pretty similar to the ongoing runs it had been churning out - however UKMO at one extreme was colder much quicker & the ECM was milder much quicker.

This implies they were both some sort of outliers V the EPS & GEFS means.

The ECM at 120 lifts the low out NW creating a S/SE flow where as the UKMO sent is SW clearing through.

The UKMO - ( & only UKMO ) started to shift the placement of the parcels of energy at 72>96- instead of a 'weak' signature of energy over Holland & High energy in that low west of Scotland, the emphasis has strongly swung to the energy over Holland.

As a result of this the 'holland' Low supports the cold air filtering SW through the low countries faster.

The 06z GEFS mean swung a fair way to this but not entirely - this is why they were colder at 144.

The JMA & UKMO at 96 ( 84 for the 12s ) both place emphasis on the holland low

Cold cluster looks stronger

 

 

 

 

 

---

Cold cluster looks stronger

 

 

 

 

 

Yes the 06z out of sync with the pack at various points, suggesting that if it goes well at the key point then the Op is too slow to clear the LP away from the SE - often a GFS fault.

---

Not every cold snap in 79 was a total nationwide freeze affair.

I remember a short cold snap was ended in the south by snow coming up from NE France turning to rain after 4 hours.The warm front moved north until it stalled over the  North Midlands giving a huge dumping.

Cold up north ,transitional in the south seems to be the theme this winter, infact at times a very 79 feel to it excluding the 2 big cold events.With the approach to spring March northerlies NE winds are sure to become more prevalent  and give the south at least more cold nights with the chance of early visitations of warm conditions. 

---